If you read my recent piece on Lucas Giolito and Kyle Freeland, then you know I have a growing fascination with pitchers who excel at getting both chases and freezes. (And if you haven’t read it, you’ll find out why I’m fixated with them by going here.) Jakob Junis is this very sort of pitcher, yet it’s been hard to write glowing words about a starter with an ERA above 5.00 and an HR/9 north of 2.0.
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There’s a fine line between stubborn and obstinate, and Bud Black seemingly walks it each year with struggling closers. It’s encouraging to see he trusts his ninth inning arm, but in the midst of a playoff chase, can he afford to keep providing save chances to Wade Davis? Davis blew his second straight save on Friday night in Milwaukee culminating on a three-run walk-off home run by Eric Thames. With the knowledge Davis converted 11 straight saves prior to these implosions, one can make the case for Black to stand by his man. However, Davis has blown six saves this year and giving up wins in the spotlight applies more pressure to his now tenuous hold on the closer role. Especially with Adam Ottavino thriving in the eighth inning.
Colorado could give Davis a couple of mental days off or let him work in lower leverage for an outing or two to get him back on track without removing him from his present role. On the surface, he’s giving up eight percent more contact, to be expected with half of his games in Coors, and generating fewer swinging strikes (down five percent compared to last year). During the last 30 days, Davis has pitched in 12 games (11.1 innings) with a 12:5 K:BB, 7.94 ERA, 4.67 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Hardly inspiring. Ottavino’s not allowed an earned run over his last 14 outings (15 innings) and secured his last three saves along with eight straight holds since June 28th. Suggesting a change from the outside looking in can be easy, seeing how the Rockies respond to Davis’ recent struggles remains to be seen. Read the rest of this entry »
During a freaky Friday the 13th, handcuffs to the closer emerged as focal points of interest with three different relievers garnering saves last night. Starting in Pittsburgh, where Felipe Vazquez had worked in five of the previous six game, Kyle Crick notched his second save of the season allowing two hits in 1.1 innings with a strikeout. He’s in the midst of a 13 game scoreless streak dating back to June 15th limiting hitters to a .167 batting average against within it. Crick’s also recorded seven holds and two saves without a blown save. As for Vazquez, a well earned day of rest but he’s converted his last 11 save chances in 13 straight scoreless outings as well with a 1.02 ERA his last 17 games and 32 strikeouts his last 17.2 innings.
Ground ball machine Scott Alexander locked down his first save as a Dodger in spite of yielding two hits. Alexander’s worked in three consecutive games but the team decided to rest Kenley Jansen on Friday, who worked the the two prior games and threw 29 pitches on Thursday. As for Alexander, he’s not given up a run in 6.2 innings to start July with seven strikeouts against two walks. On the season, his 74.3 ground ball rate and 20.4 hard hit percentage against make him a valued reliever in real life, plus, Alexander’s converted all 12 holds provided him this year. Read the rest of this entry »
While fantasy owners lament when Brandon Morrow does not receive a save opportunity, it’s time for them to adjust to his usage going forward. Morrow received three days off after working in consecutive outings this weekend. On the season, Morrow’s pitched in back-to-back games five times all season. He’s 20-for-22 in save chances with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but the Cubs will continue to handle him with care with an eye on the playoffs. Roster limitations can affect attempting to handcuff this bullpen so it’s time to adjust to the situation at hand instead of hoping it evolves going forward. Of course, missing out on saves stinks, but having Morrow healthy during the second half outweighs fantasy implications.
With at least three members of the Marlins bullpen linked in trade rumors, racking up extra inning games does not help limit usage. Kyle Barraclough allowed three hits while striking out the side to keep the game tied last night but has surrendered nine hits his last six innings after holding hitters to six hits his first 30 games. Regression to the mean happens all the time in baseball, so noting Barraclough’s 1.31 ERA accompanies a 3.61 FIP along with a 92.4 left-on-base percentage hints more could be on the way. Drew Steckenrider blew his third save giving up two hits and two earned runs with a walk while striking out two. After recording 19.2 straight scoreless innings, Steckenrider’s allowed runs in back-to-back games on four hits and two walks. Read the rest of this entry »
Over the last few seasons, I have become a more aggressive pitch-and-ditcher. While I have not reached the point of taking action — either adding or dropping — on the basis of a single start, I have come to realize that a new direction taken by a pitcher in back-to-back starts often goads me into considering a move.
Two starts don’t quite represent a trend, but if you wait for a pitcher to show clear signs of trending in a new direction, you usually lose an opportunity to add pitchers who are moving in a positive direction. You may also be unnecessarily saddling yourself with bad starts from a slumping pitcher in the name of patience.
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For the skills over role consensu, Kyle Barraclough continues to thrive as the closer for the Marlins in spite of starting the season as the primary setup reliever. Barraclough notched his fifth save firing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts in his fourth outing over the last five days. He’s yielded no runs his last 16 games spanning 15.2 innings and only allowed one hit in these appearances. During the season, Barraclough’s not given up a hit in 25 of his 32 outings and been scoreless in 28 of them. Although he’s battled control issues in the past, Barraclough’s 1.15 ERA and 0.80 WHIP suggest he’s settling into the role quite well. Just plan on Miami giving him a day off on Saturday if possible to keep him healthy going forward.
It feels like one step forward and two steps back with Felipe Vazquez this season. He did record his 13th save allowing a hit but striking out two, including Joey Votto, to secure a win for the Pirates on Friday night. On the surface, Vazquez has blown four of his last eight save chances with an ERA of 4.55 yet a FIP of 2.87, so which number should fantasy owners focus on? Vazquez has cut down his hard hit percentage allowed by 5.6 points. However, he’s traded ground balls for line drives. His underlying discipline statistics do not display complete erosion of his skills as his swinging strike percentage approaches his 2016 numbers, but owners drafted Vazquez for the upside he displayed in the first half of last year. Over the last 14 days, Vazquez has worked 5.1 innings with nine strikeouts against five walks with a 3.38 ERA and 2.53 FIP. Almost a encapsulation of his season so far with hints of upside paired with the high amount of walks. Perhaps he can turn this around like Kenley Jansen did in April, but it’s not for the risk averse. Read the rest of this entry »
After a difficult latter half of May, Felipe Vazquez seemed to get himself in the clear with some effective performances to begin this month. Vazquez’ first three games in June resulted in 3.1 scoreless innings with five strikeouts. That brief string of encouraging outings was snapped on Wednesday, as he nearly frittered away the three-run lead the Pirates gave him to start off the ninth inning against the Diamondbacks. Jon Jay’s two-out, bases-loaded single cut the lead to one run, and the tying run — represented by Deven Marrero — was just 90 feet from home. After an intentional walk to Paul Goldschmidt, Vazquez escaped the inning by striking out Jake Lamb.
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The Pirates may have been insisting that Felipe Vazquez is healthy, but something appears to be wrong. After rebounding from a string of subpar performances with solid outings on Tuesday and Wednesday, Vazquez blew his fourth save in 12 days on Thursday night against the Cardinals. He was entrusted with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning, but before he could get an out, he loaded the bases and then gave up a two-RBI single to Luke Voit. (In fairness to Vazquez, Tommy Pham reached base by way of a Sean Rodriguez fielding error.) On Vazquez’s very next pitch, Yairo Munoz homered on a 96 mph fastball in the middle of the plate for a walk-off victory.
Clint Hurdle summed up his closer’s performance when he said Vazquez “couldn’t get any swings outside the zone and they barreled up everything in the zone.” That has not only been the case for Thursday’s performance. Over his last six appearances, Vazquez has induced chases on only 26.0 percent of his pitches that have missed the strike zone. He has allowed 23 hit balls over this stretch, and nine of them have been line drives. These trends have contributed to Vazquez allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 12 hits and three walks over just 3.2 innings.
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Tuesday’s most interesting closer development actually came in a non-save situation. Felipe Vazquez — much to the surprise of many fantasy owners — reportedly said he would be ready to pitch on Tuesday, even though he had to be lifted early from Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals due to forearm discomfort. As a man of his word, Vazquez pitched the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s contest against the Cubs, even though the Pirates were behind, 8-4.
Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk concluded that Vazquez had minor flexor muscle irritation that required rest and treatment. Vazquez did seem to be fine on Tuesday, getting all three hitters he faced to ground out while averaging 100.0 mph on his fastball.
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Felipe Vazquez just hasn’t been himself lately, and now we may have an explanation. The Pirates’ closer blew his third consecutive save on Sunday, and the news got even worse, as he had to leave the game with left forearm discomfort. He was examined after Sunday’s game, and as of Monday morning, Vazquez said that he felt well enough that he expects to available on Tuesday against the Cubs.
Nonetheless, the waiver wire frenzy over a potential new Pirates closer has begun. In Yahoo and Fantrax leagues, Edgar Santana is already near the top of the most-added list for relief-eligible pitchers. It’s actually been Michael Feliz who has entered in the eighth inning to set up for Vazquez in each of his last five save chances, including Sunday’s. Just as Vazquez has struggled lately, so has Feliz, and Sunday’s difficulties made it necessary for Clint Hurdle to call on Vazquez to try to get the final five outs. Over his last three appearances, Feliz has allowed seven runs in two innings of work.
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