Archive for Nyjer Morgan

My wife was late last week.  Not late for dinner late, but late late.  To subdue the paranoia, it was a quick trip to the drug store and back home for her to pee on the stick.  We sit and wait.  Can’t be, can she?  Apologies to my Catholic readers, but she’s on the pill.  We couldn’t possibly be part of that unlucky 2% could we?  We look and see a plus sign.  That can’t be good.  It’s not.  I hand her another one.  This time it looks negative but there’s some coloration that still makes us nervous.  Rather than reach for the nearest coat hanger, I make her a doctor’s appointment and luck out with an 8am opening the next day.  She goes in, the doctor confirms a false positive and the bullet gets dodged.  Phew! Read the rest of this entry »

Down to the wire in your leagues. Don’t hesitate to drop players, especially pitchers – by the time someone picks them up they’ll get one start at most. Push, push, push, There’s still a little bit of time! Some short-term help below.

Julio Borbon, Rangers (25% owned)
Some of you might have Nyjer Morgan on your H2H team, and his eight-game suspension just went down. You might be going the distance. You might be going for speed. Your team is all alone, all alone in this time of need. Cue the speed racer, Julio Borbon. In September, he’s cut his strikeout rate back down to the 10% level it lived during his minor league career (10.7% career), and his BABIP is rising. Considering his speed, he could definitely own a BABIP higher than the .311 he has now, ZiPs RoS BABIP (.304) to be damned. In any case, September has Borbon starting (11 of the team’s 13 games), hitting (.333/.350/.410 so far), and stealing more bases than he has in a while (two), and that’s all you want from a short-term speed boost in H2H. Michael Brantley is also hot and stealing bases more prolifically, but we bigged him up at the end of August, so even though he’s owned in fewer Yahoo leagues (10%), it might be Borbon you find on your wire if your league is full of RotoGraphs readers.

Carlos Carrasco, Indians (5% owned)
You can still get the other CC for his start today against the Royals in some leagues, and that’s recommended. He’s not showing the best strikeout rate in the majors (6.10 K/9) or minors (7.93 K/9) this year, but he has supplemented that with an improving groundball rate in the majors (66.7%) and minors (46.1%). He’s also bettered his control this year in the majors (2.61 BB/9) and minors (2.66 BB/9), so he has his uses. Perhaps the mix isn’t mixed-league worthy every start – he’s much riskier for his next start against Minnesota, his second matchup against the Twins this year – but in deeper leagues, he makes a great spot start when he’s playing teams like the Royals. His minor league story is a little strange – he’s had strikeout rates north of nine per nine and south of six and a half per nine, and his groundball rates have oscillated from about 40% to 48% – but the overall package looks like it might play, if only on the back of his strong control. Streaming is inherently risky, but made more so with Carrasco.

CF Nyjer Morgan entered 2010 as a coveted fantasy pick. The former Pirates prospect, shipped along with LHP Sean Burnett to Washington last summer for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Joel Hanrahan, batted .307/.369/.388 in 2009. With a .340 wOBA, 42 steals and superb defense, the man who dubbed himself “Tony Plush” posted a 4.9 WAR season. His 2010 pre-season ADP, according to KFFL, was 122nd overall.

So far, Tony Plush has kinda been a bust. Realistically, fantasy players should have expected at least a mild downturn at the plate — Morgan had a .355 BABIP last season. Granted, he’s a burner, as his career 7.4 Speed Score in the majors and .355 minor league BABIP from 2005-2008 attest, but both CHONE and ZiPS figured he wouldn’t be quite as prolific on balls put in play:

ZiPS: .281/.339/.359, .334 BABIP, .318 wOBA
CHONE: .281/.345/.367, .332 BABIP, .321 wOBA

Unfortunately, Morgan has fallen well short of those projections: he’s got a .248/.310/.326 triple-slash in 287 PA, with a .283 wOBA that puts him in the same company as out-making luminaries like Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kendall. What has changed between Morgan’s breakout ’09 and heartbreaking 2010? Not much, actually:

2009: 7.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, .081 ISO, 19.4 LD%, 54.3 GB%
2010: 7.0 BB%, 17.4 K%, .078 ISO, 24.1 LD%, 53.9 GB%

Morgan’s walking slightly less and punching out a bit more, with just about no change in his “power” or ground ball rate. His rate of line drives hit is actually much higher this season. Yet, his BABIP has fallen from last year’s .355 to just .300 in 2010. Nyjer’s expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders, is .341. That’s much closer to those pre-season forecasts, and I think we can safely conclude that Morgan has been unlucky on balls in play this season. He’s been more of a .290/.350/.370-type hitter than the absolute cipher on display so far.

So, Morgan should bounce back at the plate — his ZiPS rest-of-season line is more circumspect, but still calls for improvement (.273/.330/.352, .309 wOBA). But there’s another area of his game that’s been off this season — Morgan has been a liability on the base paths.

Last year, he swiped bases at a 71.2 percent clip (42 for 59). In 2010, Nyjer has 15 steals, and he’s on pace for a mid-thirties SB total. However, he has been caught red-handed ten times. That gives him a paltry 60% success rate, and he has also been picked off three times already, after getting caught napping four times last season. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Morgan has cost the Nats about three runs on steal attempts this season. So what, you say. But, Morgan costs your team potential runs, too, when he heads back to the dugout with his head hung low after getting gunned down at second or third.

While Morgan has surely drawn the ire of many who expended a mid-round pick on the basis of his wheels, this might be a good time for others to pick him up at a discount. He’s no great shakes offensively, but he’ll almost assuredly improve at the plate. And, it’s very likely that a 29-year-old player with a career 75% stolen base success rate in the minors and a 70% major league success rate from 2007-2009 won’t continue to be such a hazard when he tries to nab a bag. Morgan’s no fantasy stud, but he should hit passably and provide speed-starved players with more efficient base thievery from this point forward.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Nyjer Morgan – Owners drafted him for speed and Morgan has been successful on just 14 of 24 SB attempts. Also, he was hitting so poorly as the Nationals’ leadoff man that he was dropped lower in the order. But Morgan has played well the last two weeks while everyone is dumping on him. In his last 14 games (13 starts), Morgan is batting .286 with 9 R and 5 SB in 7 attempts. He is a three-category performer who struggled while suffering through a poor BABIP stretch. ZiPS (U) shows him with 35 SB and that seems to be on the low side of what he should be expected to do given his speed and recent success ratio.

Francisco Rodriguez – Ask any Mets fan or Rodriguez owner if they feel comfortable when he comes on to nail down the save. Tuesday he allowed a 2-run HR in the ninth inning but held on for the save, prompting Metsdradamus to label it an “8” on the Coronary Meter. But if you do not watch the games and just view the results in the box scores, you will see that Rodriguez’ results are more than satisfactory. In the last 30 games, he is tied with Jonathan Broxton for most Saves in the majors with 9. In that time span he has a nice 12.09 K/9 ratio. And even though hitters are enjoying a .393 BABIP against Rodriguez, he has a very acceptable 2.97 ERA in that stretch. The results can be even better in the future if his BABIP regresses to normal levels.

James Shields – He has dropped three straight decisions and now carries his highest ERA (4.55) since his rookie season in 2006. But Shields is on pace to record his highest K/9 (8.68) of his career and his xFIP of 3.39 is a personal best. The Rays righty is scuffling right now due to a 50 percent strand rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher in the last 30 days. Once he improves with runners on base, Shields will be a pitcher to help in all four categories thanks to Tampa Bay’s offense and the chance for big Win totals.

SELL

Matt Cain – Everyone thought Cain was lucky last year but he is topping even that pace with his current hot streak. In 2009, Cain had an ERA 1.33 lower than his xFIP. This year it is 2.49 lower thanks to a 94.8 LOB% in his last six starts. Now, Cain’s ERA has been better than his xFIP each season of his career, so it is certainly not all due to luck. Still, now is a good time to look to sell high on a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last four starts.

Aubrey Huff – After a poor start to the season, Huff has been on an extended hot streak. In his last 41 games he is batting .333 with 8 HR and 26 RBIs. That has caused his ownership in CBS Sports leagues to rise from 40 to 75 percent. But it is questionable if Huff can maintain this pace going forward and there are also some playing time concerns going forward. With Buster Posey and Pat Burrell both making the case for consistent at-bats, Huff may find it hard to match last year’s 536 ABs.

Colby Rasmus – Last year LHP devoured Rasmus as they limited him to a .474 OPS in 115 PA. But this year Rasmus has a .951 OPS versus southpaws in 44 PA and he is faring even better against RHP. In his last 30 games, Rasmus has been hitting everything in sight, as he has a .444 BABIP and a 25.0 HR/FB rate. Neither the overall success nor the results versus LHP are likely to keep up their current pace, making Rasmus a sell-high candidate. ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR, and it is hard to believe his trade value is not higher than that.

HUNCH

Mark Teixeira – A notorious slow starter, Teixeira got off to his usual slow start and then turned things around in May. But ZiPS was not all that thrilled with Teixeira to start the year and the updated version shows reduced totals in AVG, HR and RBIs. I am going to side with history and predict that Teixeira exceeds his ZiPS (U) totals of .252-27-104.

Though our tools may not always be at their sharpest, we can still use them in concert to find truth in the fog. Yes, the 2010 projections are not up yet at BaseballMonster, but we have a sweet set here and can use their standard-deviation weighted-category-based rankings to help compare players with different skill sets. Yes, the ADP values on MockDraftCentral are flawed and skewed by their proprietary pre-ranks, but until we have more sources, they’ll have to do (Yahoo ADPs go live February 18).

The flaws of our tools were revealed when we looked at the first couple of center field tiers on Thursday, but the middle tier awaits and we will not be deterred from our goal of finding the strongest values at each position (and yes, we’ll do a post to gather all of these values into one place eventually).

Melvin Bossman Jr Upton is being taken the earliest (59.88), but after reading Dan Budreika’s breakdown of the difficulty of projecting his season (especially his power, in my opinion), I have to think that’s a little early for him. Adam Jones (89.04) comes next, but with most projections having him around 18 and 10 with an okay batting average, that seems a little high for a guy that won’t be a major plus in any category. Andrew McCutchen (91.08) may yet grow into his power, but as Paul Bourdett pointed out here, our perception of the current level of his power might have been skewed by a burst late last year. The fact remains that his minor league ISO was in the .130s, not the .180s like last year. Without plus power, he looks like a Shane Victorino (74.25) who I also believe is going too high (unless he finally steals 40+).

I hate to be so obvious about my man-crushes, but Carlos Gonzalez (124.70) has all the tools to fly past all the center fielders in his tier. We’ve talked extensively about him on the site, but I’ll just add a couple more points. CarGo is in a crowded outfield, yes, but the team hasn’t shown the willingness to make Seth Smith an every-day player, so it really looks like Smith and Dexter Fowler are the ones battling for playing time. CarGo played almost every day down the stretch down last year and I expect that to continue. Second, it makes me drool when a toolsy former top prospect makes good on his tools by improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rates and contact rates across the board, while also returning his ISO to his minor league days of promise. The stars are aligned for CarGo to Go CarGo.

The speed-only tier creates a trio of players that are seemingly projected (by CHONE) to be virtually the same players next year:

Player A: .268, 4 home runs, 37 steals
Player B: .281, 3 home runs, 29 steals
Player C: .270, 4 home runs, 31 steals

What if I added that Player B actually stole 42 bases last year with a 71% success rate? Well, then you’d probably want him, wouldn’t you? Congratulations, you just bought Nyjer Morgan at bargain-basement prices (130.21 ADP). He would almsot certainly make a better value than Michael Bourn (72.45 ADP), and should sport a better batting average (and more guaranteed playing time) than Rajai Davis (171.44 ADP) in that crowded house that is the Oakland outfield.

We may have to go to a part three here to discuss the fantasy fault line (thanks to reader Johnny Tuttle for that wording, which may become a feature here shortly) between Shane Victorino and Denard Span.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

There might be some grumblings about putting Matt Kemp into a tier of his own. The fact is, he’s the closest to .300 30/30 out there and that means something. Even with the eventual bounce back that both Grady Sizemore (.276 BABIP in 09, .308 xBABIP in 09, .317 career BABIP) and Curtis Granderson (.276 BABIP in 09, .301 xBABIP in 09, .323 career BABIP) will be getting in the average department, they both should fall short of those hallowed numbers. Kemp just needs a few more fly balls to leave the yard, and with his increasing fly ball totals and HR/FB ratios, it doesn’t take much squinting to get him there.

Carlos Beltran doesn’t quite have the speed to join the top tier, but injury concerns aside, he’s pretty much the definition of the second tier. Before last year, he’d cleared 600 plate appearances for eight straight years, so he’s a decent bet as a value pick once the first two rounds are complete. Jacoby Ellsbury is in the news a lot these days, has more speed than anyone on the list, but also has very little power and may be destined for a new position. You could pick him if you are getting plus power from a position on the infield, though, and not miss a beat.

Josh Hamilton’s position in the tier may be the most tenuous. The injury concerns are real (469 average PAs over the last three years), and speed is probably not part of the package any more (20 stolen bases and 7 caught stealings career). I would definitely be tempted to wait on him and pick the surging Carlos Gonzalez instead. CarGo rode a .320/.384/.608 second half (with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases) into our collective consciousness. One of the main reasons for his effectiveness was that he cut down his strikeouts (23.2% in second half, 26% career), and we know he has the tools to continue producing should the refined approach continue. Bucs wunderkind Andrew McCutchen and O’s rising star Adam Jones help fill the Upside Tier, a trough that many knowledgeable readers will be dipping into next year. With Jones’ tiny walk rate (5.6% career) I just see a little more risk there. We’ve written extensively on B.J. Upton, who may yet have books written about him. Suffice it to say that his oscillating power (ISOs ranging from .046 to .209) and BABIPs (.312 to .399) make him risky.

The next tier we might as well call the “No-Power-All-Speed” tier. With his terrible 2008, of course there’s a reason to doubt Michael Bourn, but his walk rate, BABIP and line drive percentage all finally approached his minor league rates. He might have just found himself on the major league level finally, and he looks to have the best speed of this bunch. Otherwise, there’s not really much difference between Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Take your pick.

The last tier is looking for redemption in some cases. Shane Victorino is being grounded slightly by his splits (.749 career OPS vs righties) but also by rumors that Placido Polanco will take his position in the lineup for reasons unclear. He still could provide tremendous value if he gets drafted at this tier position. It’s unclear why he stole fewer bases as his success rate (79.6%) and speed score (7.5) are still elite. Torii Hunter will get some love in the comments, perhaps, but his BABIP was at a nine-year high last year, and if his average drops, his 20/20 prowess looks a little less sexy. If batting average is not a concern, he’s a decent pickup late in the game. Vernon Wells just needs more space than we have here.

This position was deeper than I expected. Young players like Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and Franklin Gutierrez could all join the big boys with some steps forward in their games. All of them already make decent bench picks even in mixed leagues.

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.

Perhaps no player in fantasy baseball has a wider range of potential outcomes than Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. A former hockey player in the Canadian Junior Leagues, Morgan is really fast and he has posted a good batting average in two limited stretches in the majors. He is in a battle for a starting job in Spring Training and there is a strong possibility he starts April as the team’s leadoff man and everyday left fielder.

If Morgan holds down the starting job all season his upside is 2003-vintage Juan Pierre. That year, Pierre hit .305, stole 65 bases and had roughly a $30 season despite hitting just one home run.

But even if Morgan wins the job in Spring Training over Steve Pearce, there’s no guarantee he holds on to the job, as Andrew McCutchen will likely join the Pirates at some point in the 2009 season and take over an everyday job in the outfield.

And there’s always the battle with Pearce, who has been a better hitter than Morgan throughout their careers in the minors and who has the power bat that teams like to see from their corner outfielders. The Pirates seem worried about Pearce’s ability to hit off-speed pitches and have hinted that he may need additional seasoning in the minors.

So, if Morgan wins the battle in Spring Training, how likely is he to keep the job?

The first thing that jumps out about Morgan is his BABIP. Last year in Pittsburgh it was .367 and that hardly seems a mark that he could maintain going forward. But Morgan has always posted high BABIPs in the minors. He makes decent contact, hits line drives, and has the tremendous speed – pretty much the exact profile of a player who can post high BABIPs.

Can Morgan supplement his average with a good OBP? He’s never had a great walk season and there is no reason to expect him to in 2009. Yet, he should be able to post an OBP of around .350 if he can hit .300, which would be borderline acceptable. For a comparison, Pierre’s OBP was .361 in 2003.

Is he a good enough fielder to hold down a corner spot with no power? While defensive ability currently has no value in fantasy baseball, in this particular case it will help determine Morgan’s playing time. He does not look like a good outfielder running routes to the ball, but his UZR numbers are through the roof. Last year, only two qualified left fielders posted a double-digit UZR/150. In 45 games last year, Morgan’s UZR/150 extrapolated to 22.4, which would have been behind only Carl Crawford among left fielders.

Does the manager seem willing to go to war with Morgan? At the end of last season, Pirates manager John Russell said, “He did some really good things. He was exciting. He really added a dimension to our offense. His missing three games is not going to affect our evaluation.” In December, MLB.com had Russell suggesting “the Pirates will start the season with Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss manning the outfield.”

But while all of the above might paint a rosy picture, keep in mind that his MLE from his 327 at-bats in Triple-A last year show a player with a .266/.310/.324 line. Do you place more value on 327 Triple-A at-bats or the 160 he had with the Pirates? And even if you favor the at-bats in Pittsburgh, how much faith do you have that he can maintain the ultra-high BABIP?

Morgan simply has too much volatility to be anything other than a late-round pick in most fantasy leagues. It’s near certain that some owners will fall in love with his SB potential and draft him earlier than that, especially if the Pirates announce that he’s won the job before your league drafts. But remember that McLouth and Moss are definitely above him in the pecking order and that McCutchen and Pearce (and even Craig Monroe) are looming if he stumbles.