Archive for MLB rookies

A new Ottoneu league has recently formed with a twist – despite the deep, dynasty-like structure of the platform, our league has decided on a single rule change this year: players without MLB experience (“rookies”) are ineligible for the annual spring player auction.  Instead, rookies may only be added to rosters through an in-season free agent player auction once they have accumulated their first MLB PA or IP.  Yes, this means Luis Robert cannot be owned (48 hour auction waiting period) until he completes his first PA, most likely to come on Opening Day (3/26) against the Royals.

This one simple rule change impacts a tremendous amount of Ottoneu strategy, a discussion for which I’ll reserve a future post.  For now, the purpose of this article is to list the rookies that have at least some opportunity to debut in 2020, and estimate which of these prospects might actually have some relevant fantasy impact this season.

The table below lists 130+ prospects that could potentially make their initial MLB rookie debut in 2020.  All players with existing MLB experience (Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May) have been removed.  The three columns to the far right should be the most useful:

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After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.

It’s been a couple of weeks since we last took a look at the Rookie of the Year races in both the American and National leagues, so let’s have a look at how the top freshman hitters in Major League Baseball are doing.

Chris Getz (Chicago, 2B): Despite being slowed by a broken finger, Getz has pretty much done everything you could hope for from a second baseman: He’s played good defense, run a little bit, and hit for a respectable average (.274). Now at the top of the order, his .340 on-base average could be a little more impressive if he walked a bit more (6.7 BB%) but he’s putting the ball in play (9.5 K%). Getz is not having a flashy season, but it may be the most consistent amongst the rookies in the American League.

Elvis Andrus (Texas, SS): If you prefer flashy, Andrus is your man. The 20 year old’s defense (and range) is one of the main reasons why Texas is in first place in the American League West. His defense is only going to get better by watching (and listening) to veteran teammate Omar Vizquel. Offensively, he’s not embarrassing himself with a line of .273/.312/.409 but he could stand to run a little bit more on the base paths. After stealing 54 bases in 118 games in 2008, he has just three steals so far this season in the Majors.

Travis Snider (Toronto, LF): Batting ninth in Toronto’s potent (right now, anyway), first-place lineup, Snider is having an inconsistent season mainly due to his eagerness at the plate. He is swinging at pitchers’ pitches right now and not being patient enough. His line of .250/.305/.420 is a bit of a disappointment, but his strikeout rate of 20.5 K% is encouraging for a young slugger, who hasn’t been playing his best – especially considering his career rate was around 30 K% entering 2009.

Brett Gardner (New York, CF): During the course of the past two seasons, Gardner has combined to hit .228/.284/.290 in 70 big league games, which won’t cut it for most if not all teams – and definitely not the New York Yankees. With a career ISO below .100 and a walk rate under 10%, the 25-year-old rookie is quickly fading into a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And he likely has a smaller window of time to turn things around than many prospects would.

Cameron Maybin (Florida, CF): It has been a disappointing season for the former No. 1 prospect, who was sent down to triple-A this past weekend. His line of .202/.280/.310, though, was just not cutting it, especially for a team battling to hold on to first place in the National League East division.

Travis Ishikawa (San Francisco, 1B): Ishikawa is another rookie that has been struggling, despite being platooned by the Giants. Overall, he is hitting just .219/.284/.288 with zero homers in 73 at-bats. The left-handed batter is hitting just .224 against right-handers. Jesus Guzman and John Bowker, both of whom can play 1B, are hitting very well in triple-A.

Chris Dickerson (Cincinnati, OF): In his last six games, Dickerson has received just six at-bats, while minor league journeymen Laynce Nix has seen an increase in playing time. Yes, Dickerson is scuffling (.197/.316/.288) but riding the pine is not going to help him. The Reds have a team loaded with young talent, but I maintain manager Dusty Baker should be in charge of a club that relies on veteran rosters – He’s not the right person to develop and guide young players.

Dexter Fowler (Colorado, CF): Fowler finally received regular playing time but after stealing five bases in one game on April 27, he’s gone just 3-for-14 (.214) with zero stolen bases and no extra base hits. His line is down to .258/.333/.382 and the Rockies organization is loaded with outfielders so he needs to get back on track.

Jordan Schafer (Atlanta, CF): He popped two homers in the first three games of his MLB career, but Schafer has not gone deep since (29 games and counting). More troubling is the fact that he has just two extra base hits in May, along with 20 strikeouts in 12 games. On the positive side, he does have 23 walks on the season (17.8 BB%).

Colby Rasmus (St. Louis, CF): It’s been a bad year for the rookie center fielders. Fowler and Rasmus are the best hitters of the bunch. Rasmus’ triple-slash line is an uninspiring .256/.337/.349. He’s actually hitting pretty good against right-handed pitching with a .299 average, but he is 2-for-19 against southpaws (.105 average). Rasmus could end up in a platoon role soon if he doesn’t show signs of improving in that area.

So, what other rookie hitters should we begin watching in the American and National leagues?

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing on the hitting side of things when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in both the American and National Leagues. In this post, we are going to take a look at the pitchers currently in the running for the year-end award in the AL. It seems to be a down year for rookie pitchers, though, with the likes of Tampa Bay’s David Price still in the minors.

If you’re an ERA fan, then Trevor Cahill’s 4.50 would probably lead you think, “OK, not great but it could be worse.” Well it is. The Oakland right-hander has allowed 27 hits and 18 walks in just 26 innings of work. He’s also added just eight strikeouts. With a line-drive rate of 24 percent, BABIP of .269, and a FIP of 6.37, he’s been lucky (while playing in a big home park) and he’s been bailed out by the defenders behind him. The 21-year-old could probably use a little more polish in the minors.

Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson has also had a rough go of things so far this year. Coming into the season, the 21-year-old lefty was considered a more advanced pitcher than most players his age but he’s still learning. Anderson has a 5.79 ERA (5.00 FIP) and has allowed 33 hits and nine walks in 28 innings of work. He’s also struck out an uncharacteristically low 4.5 batters per nine innings. In fairness, he’s faced three very tough lineups in Texas, Boston and New York (AL). Anderson is getting opponents to pound the ball into the ground (55.7 GB%) and they also are not hitting the ball with consistent authority against him (10.3 LD%). He’s going to see some good results soon.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello is another player who has been rushed to the Majors, after spending all of last season in high A-ball. The right-hander currently has allowed 28 hits and nine walks in 28.2 innings of work. Porcello has a 4.71 ERA (5.80 FIP) in his five starts. The six home runs allowed are worrisome (1.88 HR/9) but his groundball rate is good (52.1 GB%).

The sixth overall pick from the 2005 draft, Ricky Romero is still trying to live up to that lofty standard. In his first three starts of the season – after surprising everyone by nailing down a rotation spot in spring training – Romero was outstanding. He posted a 1.71 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 19 hits and just four walks in 21 innings of work. Unfortunately, he injured his oblique and hasn’t pitched since April 19. Fortunately for Toronto, he should be back within two weeks. The talent is there, he just needs to trust his stuff and hope he’s finally turned the corner with his command and control.

There may not be a rookie in the Majors who is flying more under the radar than Romero’s teammate Scott Richmond. The Canadian is a great story as a 29-year-old rookie. He took three years off school after high school and did not graduate from Oklahoma State University until he was 25, so he went undrafted. The Jays noticed him while he was pitching in independent baseball in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Within one year of signing, he pitched 27 innings for the Jays in 2008. So far this year, he has allowed 25 hits and 12 walks in 30.1 innings. He also has 26 strikeouts. Among MLB rookies, Richmond is second in strikeouts and innings pitched, as well as first in ERA and wins. He’s 12th in all of baseball in ERA amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched.

Cameron Maybin | CF | Florida Marlins
Opponent: LHP Jamie Moyer (Philadelphia
Result: 0-for-5, 3 Ks
Trending: Maybin is three for his last 21 with 8 Ks.
Notes: Maybin started the year off with a little gusto, but the strikeouts are piling up as the average drops. His 2009 season so far is looking a lot like his debut appearance in 2007 with Detroit when he hit .143/.208/.265 in 49 at-bats.

Travis Ishikawa | 1B | San Francisco
Opponent: RHP Jon Garland (Arizona)
Result: 0-for-5, 2 K
Trending: He has one walk in 47 at-bats.
Notes: Ishikawa is being platooned and has just five at-bats against left-handers. It’s not helping him much,though, as he’s batting just .214 against right-handers.

Chris Dickerson | OF | Cincinnati
Opponent: RHP Kenshin Kawakami (Atlanta)
Result: 0-for-1 pinch hitting
Trending: He’s averaging almost one K per game.
Notes: Dickerson walked five times in his first five games and went 3-for-10. He then went seven games without a walk and went 1-for-18.

Dexter Fowler | OF | Colorado
Opponent: LHP Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles NL)
Result: 3-for-4, 2B, run, RBI, CS
Trending: He hasn’t struck out in eight games. He’s hitting .400 at home, .207 on the road.
Notes: Still not officially playing everyday, Fowler is doing a little bit of everything (Defense, Average, Power, and Speed) and already has four multi-hit games.

Jordan Schafer | CF | Atlanta
Opponent: RHP Micah Owings (Cincinnati)
Result: 0-for-3, three strikeouts
Trending: He’s striking out a lot (37.3 K%) but he’s also walking more than the average rookie (16.9 BB%).
Notes: Schafer caught a lot of people’s attention by hitting two homers in his first 10 at-bats, but he hasn’t gone yard in the last 15 games. He has actually had just three extra base hits during that time. Schafer also has yet to steal a base after regularly nabbing double digits in steals each year in the minors.

Colby Rasmus | CF | St. Louis
Opponent: RHP Rich Harden (Chicago NL)
Result: 1-for-5, three K
Trending: Rasmus is seven for his last 17.
Notes: The left-handed hitter is just 2-for-13 against southpaws, but he’s struck out just three times and has four walks. He’s batting .342 against right-handed pitchers.

Chris Getz | 2B | Chicago
Opponent: RHP Roy Halladay (Toronto)
Result: Did Not Play (Injury)
Trending: A LH hitter, he’s 2-for-5 against southpaws
Notes: Getz has a broken bone on the tip of his finger but there is no word on how much time he might miss. He was seven for his last 13 before the injury and has been hitting at the top of the White Sox’ order.

Elvis Andrus | SS | Texas
Opponent: RHP Brad Bergesen (Orioles)
Result: 1-for-3
Trending: Andrus is two for his last 17 with no walks and just one K.
Notes: Andrus remains valuable, even with a hollow .275 average, because of his defense. It might be nice if he tried to run a bit, though.

Travis Snider | LF | Toronto
Opponent: RHP Jose Contreras (White Sox)
Result: 1-for-4, K
Trending: Snider is 2-for-10 against LHPs with four Ks.
Notes: Snider was eaten up by Contreras’ splitter, but learned from his mistakes as the game progressed. He’s been swinging at a lot of first pitches recently and needs to get into better hitter’s counts.

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Opponent: RHP Justin Masterson (Boston)
Result: 0-for-3, K, RBI
Trending: Gardner is five for six in stolen base attempts.
Notes: He has no extra base hits in 10 games and he’s walked only twice during that time. Unfortunately, Gardner isn’t hitting for average either.