Archive for Minnesota Twins

Max Kepler wasn’t an incredibly popular sleeper heading into the 2017 season, but I was certainly far from the only analyst who was high on the young German. The 24-year-old was coming off a productive yet unspectacular rookie campaign, and was just one year removed from a breakout year in Double-A that made him a fixture on top prospect lists.

Kepler’s 2016 wasn’t eye-popping, but there were many positive signs for the rookie. His power had just started showing up in games in that breakout Double-A season a year before, and now he was taking the next step and hitting the ball over the fence (17 HR in 447 PA). It certainly wasn’t out of the question to predict another step forward in that department, perhaps to a 20-25 HR season in 2017.

He stole just six bases in the majors in 2016, but the fact that he’d swiped 19 bags in the minors the year before was reason for optimism. Furthermore, his .235 batting average was held down by a .261 BABIP, which seemed far too low for a player with pretty good speed.

In short, it wasn’t hard to envision something like .275/25 HR/15 SB if everything came together in 2017. Despite being an unproven option at a deep position, Kepler was drafted in well over half of Yahoo leagues. Like I said, not a super-popular sleeper, but not flying under the radar either.

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Last Tuesday, Jeff Sullivan wrote this article on Byron Buxton’s transformation into the Twins’ most valuable player. If you haven’t read it and you’re interested enough about Buxton to read this fantasy slant, you should probably also read Jeff’s analysis on Buxton’s increasingly well-rounded real-life skill set.

Yesterday, Buxton unleashed the best game of his career to this point, singling and stealing a base in the 1st inning as a prelude to his homers in the 4th, 7th and 9th. As Jeff pointed out in his post last week, Buxton has dramatically simplified his mechanics at the plate, most noticeably ditching the inconsistent leg kick he used to constantly tinker with, and that was certainly in evidence on Sunday.

Basically everything about his swing looks better than it did earlier in the season. The toe tap he’s replaced the leg kick with is allowing him to consistently plant his front leg, which means he can better incorporate his lower body compared to the “100% arms” swing he was flailing about with at the beginning of the season.

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In a largely boring night in Closerville, one of the more notable developments occurred in a non-save situation. Twins manager Paul Molitor decided to bring Brandon Kintzler in with a four-run lead in the top of the ninth against the A’s, and the closer got himself into a bases-loaded, no-out situation. Matt Joyce brought in a run with a single, keeping the bases loaded, but Kintzler prevented further damage by getting a force out at home, followed by a double play ball.

It’s not this near-meltdown that is significant, but rather the problems with Kintzler that this outing highlighted. Though he doesn’t profile as a typical closer, Kintzler has had success in the past due to good control and strong ground ball tendencies. He has had neither this season, at least not consistently. Meanwhile, he has allowed oodles of contact, sporting a 5.3 percent swinging strike rate.

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One week into the season, it’s obviously too early to place much weight on any player’s performance thus far. In these early days of the season, I like to instead take a look at situational trends that alter players’ fantasy potential going forward. From position battles to lineup placement, there’s plenty to talk about from a fantasy perspective, without looking too much into small-sample statistics.

I identified three middle infielders whose fantasy arrows are pointing up, two of whom are widely available on waiver wires. (Position eligibility and ownership percentages from Yahoo.)

Marcus Semien – SS – 47% owned

When this season opened, it didn’t look like much changed for Oakland’s starting shortstop from the start of last season. Semien worked his way up the batting order as last season went on, bouncing around between the No. 2 and No. 7 spots from mid-May onward, and even saw 16 starts in the leadoff spot. However, 2017 started with the 26-year-old right back down at the bottom of the lineup, batting ninth twice and eighth once in the team’s first three games.

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The Twins bullpen was screwed basically from the get-go in 2016. What was lined up to be a decent back-end trio of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May wound up completely crumbling. Perkins shredded his shoulder and needed surgery, Jepsen completely fell apart and May had issues staying healthy all season.

That opened a spot for Brandon Kintzler, who filled in solidly as a groundball wizard, picking up 17 saves from mid-June on by boring 93 mph fastballs into the swings of hitters, as he induced a 61.9 percent groundball rate to help offseason just a so-so whiff rate (5.8 K/9). Basically, Kintzler did all that could be asked and then some from a guy who was had on a minor-league deal, including also not walking anyone as he still worked on a fairly thin margin late in games.

Kintzler is back in the fold for his final year of team control in 2017, but he wasn’t exactly invincible. He allowed opposing batters to hit .276/.308/.397, which is about as unsightly a line as one can put up as a groundballer who managed a solid ERA and fairly good peripheral statistics. The 32-year-old righty might start the season as the closer, but it’s fairly clear he’s not the best option, and could be better suited putting out fires earlier in the game, like inducing double plays in the sixth inning when a starter gets into hot water, and the like. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Dozier is a streaky hitter. We know this to be true, much like the world is round, or the sun rises in the east. In the last two seasons, he’s pushed the boundaries of what I thought ‘streaky’ could entail. About halfway through the 2015 campaign, Dozier’s production fell off a cliff. Check out his slash lines by month:

• April ’15 (95 PA) – .220/.305/.336 (.671 OPS), .146 ISO
• May ’15 (121 PA) – .287/.355/.630 (.985 OPS), .343 ISO
• June ’15 (121 PA) – .287/.355/.556 (.911 OPS), .269 ISO
• July ’15 (110 PA) – .206/.282/.433 (.715 OPS), .227 ISO
• August ’15 (120 PA) – .216/.275/.387 (.662 OPS), .171 ISO
• September ’15 (137 PA) – .197/.270/.295 (.565 OPS), .098 ISO

The batting average dropped down around the Mendoza line, while his power evaporated by the month. The really scary thing was the way Dozier began 2016:

• April ’16 (106 PA) – .191/.276/.340 (.617 OPS), .149 ISO
• May ’16 (92 PA) – .215/.315/.316 (.632 OPS), .101 ISO

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One of the most pleasant surprises of 2015 has been the performance of the Minnesota Twins. Even if they fail to capture a wild card spot, this season has surpassed any reasonable Twins fan’s expectations. A team that appeared to be in the midst of a full rebuild ended up as a legitimate playoff contender, and one of the unexpected bright spots is their largely unheralded super-utilityman, Eduardo Escobar.

The switch-hitting Escobar entered the year as a bench player for the Twins, one whose versatile glove could plug a number of holes. Case in point: In his first four defensive appearances in April, he played four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, LF). Through July 31, he had 27 starts in left field, 20 at shortstop, seven as the designated hitter, five at third base and two at second.

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While the non-waiver trade deadline failed to live up to the hype, there were many who suspected that August could be quite busy with a number of players expected to be placed on waivers. With that, fantasy owners were going to have to brace themselves for the impending fallout. A month left to wheel and deal was plenty of time to re-shape the landscape of many a fantasy roster and upset the balance of a few league standings. Alex Rios moved from the South Side of Chicago to Texas and it looked as if we were just getting the ball rolling. But the team that has been most active thus far has been those surprising and surging Royals and with a pair of moves to bolster their suddenly struggling infield, fantasy owners are….bored. After a deal with the Twins and a trade with the Blue Jays, there are nothing but yawns in reality and even less for fantasy owners to get excited about. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t often hang grades on prospects in my articles. I certainly have a strong interest in grading and I wouldn’t be able to do this job without a pretty good understanding of the process and scale involved. All the same, I’m typically reluctant to do things that would be perceived as me “playing scout,” and it’s easy to embarrass yourself and lose credibility as a writer by consistently pushing a poor grading scale in your pieces. Grading is something I put a lot of thought into, but I find it often doesn’t add much to my articles to include grades.

I had a discussion with a scout a few years ago about grades, and how averse I was (and still am) to labelling someone as having an “80” or “8” tool. The scout quickly agreed with me. We laughed about how despite the fact that there aren’t many 8’s out there, the first few times you see one it’s often… a bit underwhelming, believe it or not. The first time I saw a tool I thought deserved an “80” I thought about it for a couple innings, made damn sure I really felt that way and then finally wrote it down. Then I had a visceral reaction: “Is that it?” “Is that all there is?” “Where is the light shining down from the heavens and the choir of angels that’s supposed to announce this??” The consequence of hanging an 8 on a player’s tool means in 20 or 30 years I should be able to say that tool was the best I ever saw – or at least in the discussion thereof. “That is the best arm I’ll ever see??” The scout laughed and agreed with my sentiment, expressing his own similar reservations and doubts.

Well, I don’t have any reservations or doubts about saying Miguel Sano has 80 power. I’m confident that in my old age if someone asks me who had the most power I ever saw that the name “Sano” will quickly come to mind.

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When the Twins acquired Alex Meyer in December it marked a turning point of sorts for the organization. Denard Span had been one of the more popular regulars in the Twin Cities going on 6 years. This turning point was about more than sending Span out of town, though. Trading for a true power arm prospect was somewhat out of character for an organization that had recently become known for targeting soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact type hurlers. When G.M. Terry Ryan added Alex Meyer it seemingly punctuated a new trend in the organization’s effort to add well… more pitching in general, but particularly strikeout pitchers and guys who throw hard. Meyer does both these things and he isn’t far from helping Minnesota win ball games.

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