Archive for Mike Aviles

In a response to my post on Jeff Keppinger on Wednesday, reader “binqasim” said, “I am considering playing without a 3B given my options.” While extreme, and perhaps not advisable, this just made me rather sad. This is, after all, supposed to be fun. This is fantasy baseball. When the third basemen of your universe have become so completely useless that you would rather just punt the position than see them drag your batting average down without contributing anything in the remaining counting stats, the fantasy gods weep for you. I weep for you. And so, if you’ve found yourself in a similar position of desperation, maybe one of the following players can pitch in.

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So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

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In December, the Boston Red Sox traded Jed Lowrie to the Houston Astros, which presumably increased the value of Jed Lowrie, but also cemented Marco Scutaro as the team’s shortstop for 2012. Draft sheets were dutifully updated.

Rather inexplicably, the Red Sox recently traded said cemented shortstop to the Colorado Rockies which left a few scratching their heads and scouring Twitter to see if there was another hand to be played. After all, that left the Red Sox without a real natural shortstop and according to The Fielding Bible, shortstops are important.

Enter Mike Aviles.

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Happy 4th of July weekend to you all…

So some of the boys and I decided to test out our waiver wire skills and ran a quick little Deep League Waiver Wire draft.  We had to pick those that we thought would be the most productive for fantasy teams THIS season but had less than a 10% ownership mark using ESPN Fantasy as a guideline.  Since the pick’ns were pretty slim, we left the positions as follows:  C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP.  I had the first pick of the four of us, so here’s what I did… Read the rest of this entry »

With prospect call-ups and guys going on and coming off the disabled list, things are moving a little faster than usual with respect to third base. Considering the relative dearth of quality options at third thus far into the season (I still believe in a town called Hope, as slick Willy used to say), I thought I’d condense some of the news and also take a quick peek at opportunities in position eligibility.

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Amidst all these early season bombs, head-scratching starts from ace pitchers, fantastic starts from what’s-their-names, platoon battles, and, ahem, an appendectomy – betwixt all the frenzy of the start of the season, we have the nuts and bolts issue of position eligibility to watch for. To try and make your life just a teensy bit easier this time of year, here are a few guys that are picking up eligibility in the very near future that might help plug a hole in your lineup.

Mike Aviles

He’s a second baseman in most formats, but is considered a second baseman and shortstop in Yahoo. However, in just about any format, he’s soon to become a third baseman, which could be a real boon for any of you stony CBS-ers and others with the corner infield slot to fill. In Yahoo, he’ll need 3 more starts or 7 more appearances at third. In ESPN, he will need 7 more appearances. In CBS he needs just 2 more games to qualify at 3b and CI.

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It may seem like I’ve been writing about Mike Aviles forever. Two years ago, I compared him to Kevin Maas during Aviles’ rookie year and recommended that people pass on him in 2009 drafts (and, as an aside, I predicted that year that Matt LaPorta may struggle a little more than expected, but the jury should remain out on the Indians slugger). In the preseason this year, I talked him up as a possible starter on that Royal middle infield, and then about six weeks ago, I pointed at him during his great September (.357/.379/.612). If you picked him up after that waiver wire piece, you enjoyed two of his eight home runs and six of his 14 stolen bases, so kudos. You might say Aviles has been better to me than could be expected of a mediocre second baseman.

Hold that though. Is he actually mediocre? User Bas made some interesting points in his favor in the comments section of the Second Base Keeper Rankings. The most important thing he noticed was that Aviles’ flyball rate has slowly been inching forward, incrementally up from 33.4% in his rookie year to 37.9% this last year. That certainly helped his ISO move back from .055 in his lost year to .108 in 2010, but even this new number is sub-par (average is .150ish). Can we faithcast him for more power next year if that flyball rate continues to move?

Maybe. His minor league ISO was .166, so he could put up average power in the major leagues. And getting more balls in the air helps the slugging percentage for sure. But let’s be careful before we pencil him in for more than 15 home runs. Let’s say he gets 500 plate appearances next year, hits 40% of his balls in the air, and returns to his 8% HR/FB while keeping his plate discipline ratios similar. Then he nets 13 home runs. 600 plate appearances? 15 home runs. There are your upper bounds when it comes to a home run total.

Of course, he has some speed. Look at his career four-score speed score, though, and you’ll see it’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘speedster’ kind of speed – Aviles has a 5.6 speed score and 5.0 is average. (Chris Getz, for example, has a career 6.6 speed score). Also, Aviles has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season. Let’s call his upper bounds 15 stolen bases then?

So Aviles has the upside of a .300-hitting, 15/15 second baseman – his 13 games at shortstop this year may or may not qualify him there in your league, and that makes a difference in terms of positional value. But Aviles will also be 30 going into the season, and on a (perpetually?) rebuilding team that owns the aforementioned 27-year-old Getz at his position as well. Getz is a better fielder at his position (-0.1 career UZR/150 to Aviles’ -4.9 career UZR/150) and walks more (7.3% to Aviles’ 4.1% career), so this is no open-and-shut case. The downside is that the team makes it an open competition in the spring and Aviles finds himself as the super-utility guy. That makes him hard to keep, but an interesting late-round draft pick in deep league re-stocking drafts.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of September/October, without any position factor considered. Hitters 4-9 could probably be arranged in any order you like, although the top three hitters seem set.

10. Victor Martinez .330-7-25-17-0

These are great numbers for anyone and they are spectacular for a catcher. Martinez is a free agent following this season and it will be interesting to see how many years a club feels comfortable giving him. Fantasy-wise, he is likely to move up from last year’s 48 ADP on ESPN.

9. Jayson Werth .300-9-22-23-4

A free agent at the end of the year, Werth did everything in his power to become one of the top players available on the open market. The Phillies have top prospect Domonic Brown ready to step in for Werth but it will be strange to see him on another team next Spring.

8. Andrew McCutchen .324-4-16-22-5

Coming into the 2010 season, many fantasy players wondered if McCutchen could be a consistent HR threat. While he will never be confused as a bopper, he seems very capable of putting up a 20-HR, 40-SB season in 2011.

7. Chase Utley .306-5-24-21-7

After suffering a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgery, Utley came back quicker than many people expected. He missed just six weeks of action and after a couple of weeks to play himself back in shape, Utley responded with production that fantasy leaguers have come to expect. Now the question remains if he is still a first-round pick or if age and injury concerns drop him lower.

6. Carl Crawford .360-4-19-16-6

Another free agent, Crawford did everything fantasy owners hoped he would do and finished the year as one of the Top 10 fantasy hitters, again. The big question for fantasy players is if Crawford moves to a new team, will he get more SB chances? With an 82 percent success ratio last season, owners would love to see him get even more opportunities than the 57 he had in 2010.

5. Mike Aviles .333-6-14-20-7

In the final month of the season, Aviles hit 6 of his 8 HR and had 7 of his 14 SB for the season. After going undrafted in many 12-team mixed leagues this year, Aviles undoubtedly will be a hot target for fantasy league players in 2011.

4. Drew Stubbs .316-7-18-19-6

With the Reds making the playoffs, Stubbs will be introduced to the wider baseball audience for the first time. Fantasy league players are already aware of the just-turned 26-year-old, who saved his best for the final month of the season.

3. Shin-Soo Choo .340-7-27-19-7

How’s this for consistency – last year Choo had a .300-20-86-87-21 line and this year it was .300-22-90-81-22 line. The only problem with Choo is that he has a two-year obligation to the South Korea military hanging over his head. Choo will be representing his country in the upcoming Asian games and if South Korea wins the Gold Medal, he will likely have the requirement waved. But what if they don’t finish first and Choo goes through with his duty? Is there any chance he could return to be an MLB-quality hitter after sitting out two of his late-prime years?

2. Carlos Gonzalez .378-5-26-24-6

Without a doubt, Gonzalez is this year’s fantasy MVP. He had a preseason ADP of 131.1 according to ESPN but finished as the top-rated player in fantasy, with a $43 12-team mixed value, according to Last Player Picked. Gonzalez had a terrific final month of the year, but it wasn’t quite good enough to be the best.

1. Troy Tulowitzki .303-15-40-30-2

In the last three years, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151 and 122 games. No fantasy player questions his talent, but how soon are you ready to pull the trigger on a player who has missed roughly 1/3 of the season in two of the past three years? And should we be even a tiny bit worried about the new chain of command in regards to the baseballs at Coors Field? Tulowitzki had a 1.034 OPS at home this year and an .863 mark at home.

Honorable Mention – Albert Pujols, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday and Mark Ellis

Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.

A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!

Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.

Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.