Archive for michael brantley

Anibal Sanchez’s season has been a strange one. He started the year looking like an ace, but he has really struggled these past two months. Here is a look at some of his numbers this year and what it could mean for next season:

– Sanchez’s 2011 ERA currently sits at 4.01, and his WHIP is 1.29. His fielding independent numbers suggest he should have an ERA somewhere around 3.30.

– In Sanchez’s first 16 starts, his ERA was a crisp 2.82, and he had 107 strikeouts in 105 innings of work. He didn’t have problems with walks or the home run ball, either, as he walked a mere 29 batters and only allowed 8 homers.

– In Sanchez’s last 10 starts, his ERA is a horrendous 6.33, and he has allowed 11 homers in just 54 innings of work. A poor BABIP has also contributed to his problems, but homers have been his biggest issue of the second half.

– I’m not quite sure what has plagued Anibal in the second half, but whatever it is, I’m worried about what he’ll look like next season. Keep an eye on Anibal’s home run rate over the next month; if it lowers itself, then the righty may turn out to be a nice pick in the later rounds of your draft next year. If he continues to give up dingers, then he’s going to sit on the waiver wire for a long, long time.

Now, on to the rest of today’s Riteup:

– After finally getting a extended chance to show what he can do in the big leagues, Michael Brantley’s season is over thanks to a wrist injury. Brantley started the season on a high note, hitting around .300 for the first month of 2011 and walking quite often. But, as the season wore on, Brantley turned back in to his normal self, and he ended up hitting just .266 with seven homers and 13 steals. Someone with Brantley’s raw skills and batted ball profile should probably post a BABIP higher than the .303 mark the 24-year old finished with, so we could easily see the outfielder’s batting average rise next season. A .275/10/20 season from Brantley in 2012 seems perfectly reasonable to me, so adjust your keeper lenses accordingly.

A Pitcher for Today: David Huff vs OAK
Huff has been serviceable in four starts this year, and today is quite a bad day for decent starters with low ownership rates. As long as they don’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, Huff could end up surrendering only a run or two against the A’s. It seems like I’m saying this more frequently recently, but this would be a good day to skip streaming.

A Pitcher For Tomorrow: Zach Stewart vs MIN
Stewart’s line from his last start doesn’t look pretty, but I think the rookie pulls out a win here. It may involve him giving up four runs, however, but Stewart is your guy if you’re looking for a “w.”

PickSix Lock of the Day: Chase Utley ($32) at CIN (Homer Bailey)
Getting a talent like Utley against a homer prone pitcher in a small ballpark. Yeah, I think I’ll take my chances on that one.
Prediction: 1-3, BB, HR; 15 points
Last Week’s Locks: 4 players, $52, 37.4 pts
All Past Locks: 16 players, $241.50, 103.9 pts

There’s really no need to be embarrassed.  It’s a very common problem.  In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners.  I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time.  No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better.  It happens to everyone.  Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »

The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning.  That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove.  Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other.    Socks and underwear?  A sweater?  These aren’t video games, they’re books.  And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards?  I got rolled on Christmas morning!!

Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week.  Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”.  I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice.  Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »

One of the growing trends we see in fantasy baseball these days is the significant increase in the number of players contributing in the stolen base category.  With that, the price for speed, overall, is decreasing.  However, people still seem to go out and spend extra auction dollars on Juan Pierre or reach too high in their snake drafts for Brett Gardner.  You don’t have to be that guy (or girl).  Here are a couple of much cheaper options who will help keep you right in the thick of things in the speed department… Read the rest of this entry »

Down to the wire in your leagues. Don’t hesitate to drop players, especially pitchers – by the time someone picks them up they’ll get one start at most. Push, push, push, There’s still a little bit of time! Some short-term help below.

Julio Borbon, Rangers (25% owned)
Some of you might have Nyjer Morgan on your H2H team, and his eight-game suspension just went down. You might be going the distance. You might be going for speed. Your team is all alone, all alone in this time of need. Cue the speed racer, Julio Borbon. In September, he’s cut his strikeout rate back down to the 10% level it lived during his minor league career (10.7% career), and his BABIP is rising. Considering his speed, he could definitely own a BABIP higher than the .311 he has now, ZiPs RoS BABIP (.304) to be damned. In any case, September has Borbon starting (11 of the team’s 13 games), hitting (.333/.350/.410 so far), and stealing more bases than he has in a while (two), and that’s all you want from a short-term speed boost in H2H. Michael Brantley is also hot and stealing bases more prolifically, but we bigged him up at the end of August, so even though he’s owned in fewer Yahoo leagues (10%), it might be Borbon you find on your wire if your league is full of RotoGraphs readers.

Carlos Carrasco, Indians (5% owned)
You can still get the other CC for his start today against the Royals in some leagues, and that’s recommended. He’s not showing the best strikeout rate in the majors (6.10 K/9) or minors (7.93 K/9) this year, but he has supplemented that with an improving groundball rate in the majors (66.7%) and minors (46.1%). He’s also bettered his control this year in the majors (2.61 BB/9) and minors (2.66 BB/9), so he has his uses. Perhaps the mix isn’t mixed-league worthy every start – he’s much riskier for his next start against Minnesota, his second matchup against the Twins this year – but in deeper leagues, he makes a great spot start when he’s playing teams like the Royals. His minor league story is a little strange – he’s had strikeout rates north of nine per nine and south of six and a half per nine, and his groundball rates have oscillated from about 40% to 48% – but the overall package looks like it might play, if only on the back of his strong control. Streaming is inherently risky, but made more so with Carrasco.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing special but since August 11, Bell has a .333 AVG with 2 HR and 6 RBIs in 10 games. While most of that damage came in just one game, the encouraging thing for Bell is the plate discipline he has showed recently. For the year, he has a 34.6 K% with the Orioles. But in his last 10 games he has 9 Ks in 33 ABs for a more manageable 27.3 K%. Bell should give you power potential with a solid AVG the rest of the way if he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians (owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

Another player whose overall numbers mask a recent stretch of productive play. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Brantley carries a .212 AVG for the year. But in his last 12 games he has hit .327 with 12 R and 7 RBIs. Additionally, he has 2 HR and 2 SB in that stretch since being recalled from the minors. Brantley did sprain his ankle recently, but an MRI came back negative and he will not go on the disabled list.

Bobby Parnell – New York Mets (owned in 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

With Francisco Rodriguez done for the year, the closer spot is up for grabs in the Mets bullpen. So far, Hisanori Takahashi and Manny Acosta have notched saves in his absence. But Parnell is another option and could easily pick up a handful of saves the final six weeks of the season. Even if he does not get many saves, Parnell has the opportunity to help fantasy owners with a 9.36 K/9. Always a hard thrower, Parnell has been over 100 mph with his fastball recently. At 3.24, his ERA is higher than you would like from a setup guy as a fantasy player, but both his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.28) paint a different picture.

A depressing season in Cleveland got considerably worse with the news that RF Shin-Soo Choo suffered a right thumb sprain diving for a ball against the Oakland A’s on Friday night. According to MLB.com’s John Barone, Choo’s bum thumb might require surgery, and the soon-to-be-28-year-old could be out until September. The covert star, ranking among the top 25 position players with 2.9 WAR, leaves behind a .286/.390/.475 line and a .383 wOBA.

With Choo on the shelf, the Indians recalled OF Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus. The PTBNL in the 2008 CC Sabathia swap will slide into the leadoff spot and patrol center field for the Tribe. Brantley, 23, possesses two traits that make him intriguing to fantasy owners — he owns the zone and he’s got great wheels.

Since making his full-season debut in 2006, the lefty batter has worked pitchers for walks, avoided whiffs and has stolen bases at a high percentage clip. Brantley batted .313/.406/.377 in 690 A-Ball plate appearances, drawing ball four 13.3% of the time, striking out 12.6% and swiping bags at a 76.4% success rate. At the Double-A Level, Mickey Brantley’s son hit .298/.382/.366 in 702 PA, with an 11.3 BB%, a 8.6 K% and an 80.4% rate of SB success. Over the past two years at Triple-A, Brantley’s got a .284/.364/.377 slash, while walking 10.9%, punching out 10.7% and coming up safe 85.1% of the time that he attempts a steal.

However, the 6-2, 200 pound Brantley rarely drives the ball — his Isolated power was .064 in A-Ball, .068 in Double-A and .093 in Triple-A. Before the 2010 season, Baseball America said that Brantley “doesn’t use his legs much in his swing,” but claimed that more pop could come if he learns to leverage his lower half when he takes a cut.

What can we expect from Brantley now that he’s back in the big leagues? He has a .270/.321/.304 line and a .278 wOBA in very limited playing time (161 PA) over the past two seasons. Brantley’s got a .276/.343/.357 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .324 wOBA. CHONE has a .277/.347/.377 projection for the remainder of the 2010 season. Per Minor League Splits, Brantley’s work with the Clippers this season translates to a .294/.356/.370 showing in the majors.

Equipped with excellent strike zone awareness as well as speed that translates into production on the bases and in the field, Brantley is well worth a pickup in AL-only leagues. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he at least occasionally drive the ball to keep pitchers from pounding the zone against him? If the worst possible outcome for the opposition is a single that skirts by the third baseman, Brantley’s impressive minor league walk rates might not come with him to the show.

Brantley’s recall also leaves Austin Kearns, Trevor Crowe and Shelley Duncan competing for two starting spots on most nights. Kearns has experienced something of a rebound after two lifeless, injury-marred seasons — he’s hitting .271/.354/.417 and has a .344 wOBA. The former Red and National could be trade bait this month. Crowe, 26, has done little to inspire confidence over the past two years. The 2005 first-round pick out of Arizona has a .245/.294/.337 line in 407 PA in 2009 and 2010, showing little in the way of secondary skills (6.1 BB%, .092 ISO). A long-time minor league slugger with the Yankees, Duncan has the best offensive projections among these three…

…but he’s also a 6-foot-5 leviathan projected to be a brutal defender by CHONE (-6 runs for the rest of the year; Kearns comes in at average in a corner spot and Crowe has a +4 rating). It’s doubtful that any of the three have significant fantasy value.

That’s the sound of the final nail in the coffin for the Cleveland Indian’s 2010 season. Already 11 games out of first and languishing at .365, the Indians lost star centerfielder Grady Sizemore for the season today. His knee surgery turned into microfracture surgery, and his early prognosis is for a six-to-nine month recovery period. It’s a tough ‘break’ for a franchise that can’t seem to buy good luck these days.

Dark humor aside, microfracture surgeries are no laughing matter. Ask Tracy McGrady and Chris Webber how their recovery went and you’ll get some nervous laughter and an evasive answer. The silver lining in this story is that Sizemore is still young (27) and he doesn’t have to jump thirty inches up and down on those knees on every other play in his sport. In fact, the combination of those two facts allows for at least some optimism in Cleveland. At least the problem was discovered, and sorted to the best of the surgeon’s abilities. Let’s leave it to the doctors report on his recovery.

Hopefully the injury can be blamed for his poor play this year and last, though his declining ISO is somewhat worrisome. Was his knee hurting in 2009? Did he just peak early in 2008? Will he ever regain that 30/30 form? In real baseball, the Indians may take the 2009 vintage and be happy with it. 112 wRC+ center fielders with plus defense don’t grow on trees. And truly, even fantasy owners should be happy if he comes back and plays to 2009’s level, but they won’t pay early-round prices for that production until he proves the power and speed are back. Still, he makes for an intriguing late-round pick in 2011 because of his immense upside, and certainly keeper league owners should not sell low.

So now what? The Indians will slog through the season and see what else the farm system has to offer at the center field position. Trevor Crowe will get continue to get first dibs on the interim position, and before long Micheal Brantley will get the call. In some ways, this may help the organizational health of the Indians by giving two players that have finished their minor league apprenticeships the chance to play every day in the major leagues. Perhaps they prove they can play every day and allow Cleveland to trade them for value elsewhere. Perhaps one of them proves that they can be a valuable fourth outfielder. Either way, they get a shot.

Crowe’s .276/.362/.391 minor league line doesn’t offer a ton of hope for an above-average regular, but his .813 OPS versus lefties could make him a good fourth outfielder or platoon option. His defense in center was around scratch in the minors according to Total Zone, and a scratch-defensive centerfielder that can hit lefties is not dog meat. At the major league level, he just needs to show he can walk like he did in the minors – his 5.5% walk rate to date is not cutting it.

Brantley is playing decently in the minor leagues currently (.306/.386/.373), but, like Crowe, doesn’t have Sizemore’s above-average (or better) power. For his career, he’s played better against righties (.301/.390/.372), so we may have the beginnings of a center field platoon once he’s called up. According to Total Zone, though, his defense has ranged from exceptional at centerfield (+16 in 2009) to abysmal (-21 in 2009). The book is still open on his ability to play the position at all, and it’s important because he doesn’t own any power to speak of.

Fantasy owners are left crying in their adult sodas at their neighborhood establishment. A 30/30 player will not be on the wire at this point, and they may have no solace for teams built on Sizemore’s speedy legs and powerful bat. If they are looking for help from the Cleveland team, Brantley may be the one to pick up, if only because he plays better against right handers and there are more of them.

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free agent first baseman Russell Branyan has inked a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, which includes $1 million in performance incentives. The pact also has a $5 million mutual option for 2011.

Long a stat-head favorite for his prodigious power, keen eye and lack of playing time, Branyan comes full-circle by returning to the team that originally drafted him back in 1994. The 34 year-old has a career 114 wRC+, with a twelve percent walk rate and a .257 Isolated Power. But because he does something aesthetically displeasing (strike out) a ton, and has some issues with lefties (though he’s not terrible against them), Branyan has been traded five times and released twice. He’s been to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle. He’s been everywhere, man.

Prior to the 2009 season, the lefty thumper signed a modest one-year contract with the Mariners. He cracked the 500 plate appearance mark for the first time in his career, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 bombs and a 129 wRC+. Unfortunately, a herniated disk in his lower back ended his season in late August.

CHONE projects Branyan to hit .243/.335/.497 next year, with a 121 wRC+. Just how he fits into Cleveland’s plans remains to be seen, however. Branyan has experience playing all of the corner spots on the field, but he hasn’t played third base since 2008 and hasn’t roamed the outfield since 2007. Given the back ailment, he’s almost surely a first baseman only, while spotting for Travis Hafner at DH from time to time.

That opens up a couple of questions. Namely, what does Branyan’s signing meaning for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley?

LaPorta (projected by CHONE for a 112 wRC+) has a big bat, but also has limited range and underwent hip and toe surgeries during the off-season. The Branyan deal could mean that LaPorta isn’t fully mended. Or, it could indicate that the Indians are still giving consideration to having LaPorta patrol left field next season (his Total Zone numbers in the minors suggest he’d be a liability). In that case, Brantley (projected 98 wRC+, with 26 SB) would have an uncertain role with the club.

There are many moving parts here. Pay close attention to Cleveland’s plans for Branyan, LaPorta and Brantley leading up to draft day. Given Hafner’s shoulder and Branyan’s back, there could be enough playing time for all of these guys to remain fantasy relevant.