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Chris Coghlan, Marlins

Talk about a seamless transition to the majors. Often lost in the imposing shadows of top-tier prospects like Cameron Maybin, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, Coghlan has posted a robust .365 wOBA with the Fish in 2009.

The 2006 supplemental first-rounder out of Mississippi displayed exceptional control of the strike zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 11.3 K%), and that firm grasp of the zone has been on display during Coghlan’s rookie year. The 24 year-old has walked 10.5% of the time while whiffing 16.6%, offering at just 20% of pitches thrown off the plate (25% MLB average).

Primarily a second baseman in the minor leagues, Coghlan has not made an especially smooth shift to left field (-13.8 UZR/150). It remains to be seen where he lines up in the long term (will Florida hold on to Dan Uggla?), but his bat is about as polished possible for a rookie.

Brad Penny, Giants

While in Boston, Penny was drubbed for a 5.61 ERA. However, his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 4.48 suggested that he was basically a league-average starter. Penny punched out 6.08 batters per nine frames with the Red Sox, while issuing 2.87 BB/9. His BABIP was a lofty .336.

Since signing with San Francisco, the 31 year-old righty has allowed 4 runs in 22 IP, punching out 10 and walking four. Penny is neither the punching bag that his Boston stint would suggest, nor is he suddenly an ace with the Giants. He’s a quality mid-rotation option.

Boston possesses decision-makers far smarter than I. But, it’s hard not to feel as through the normally thorough, pragmatic organization made a couple of knee-jerk reactions in discarding Penny and John Smoltz.

That’s not hindsight bias; there were indicators suggesting that both still possessed the skills to retire hitters at the highest level. While it likely won’t have any consequence on the club’s playoff chances (in excess of 96% at the moment), Boston would probably rather not be left hoping that Paul Byrd can party like it’s 2002 or that Daisuke Matsuzaka can, you know, throw a strike.

Michael Brantley, Indians

Grady Sizemore is done for the season. That’s a downer for any baseball fan, but at least we get to take an extended look at the PTBNL in the 2008 Sabathia Swap.

Brantley, 22 is a patient lefty hitter with serious wheels. His .267/.350/.361 line at AAA Columbus does not jump off the page, but Brantley worked the count well (11.4 BB%, 10.5 K%) while swiping many bags at a high-percentage clip (46 SB in 51 attempts, good for a 90.2% success rate).

Brantley doesn’t any lightning in his lumber (.094 ISO in 2009, .069 ISO in his minor league career), and he’ll have to establish himself in a corner spot with Cleveland. But fantasy owners searching for steals, without wanting to settle on some Willy Taveras-like out-machine, could do worse than Brantley.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

For a 25 year-old with a career 4.24 FIP in the major leagues, Buchholz sure has been subject of many “what’s wrong with him?” debates. The lanky 6-3 right-hander boasts a wicked mid-70’s curve (+0.62 runs/100 pitches career) and a low-80’s changeup (+1.03), as well as a nifty mid-80’s slider (+1.50). Buchholz’s 92-94 MPH fastball, however, has often missed the mark (-1.11).

In 2008, Buchholz called upon his heater just 47.4% of the time. He seems to be gaining trust in the offering this season, as he’s throwing it more (over 56%) and with better results (+0.15 runs/100). He’s not blowing hitters away (6.18 K/9), but Buchholz’s walk rate has fallen from 4.86 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.79 in 2009. His transition to the big leagues might not have been immediate, but there’s still plenty of reason to expect Buchholz to be a major asset for the Sox in the years to come.

Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

Very quietly, Montero has authored a sweet .366 wOBA for the D-Backs in 2009. The Caracas, Venezuela native performed well in admittedly hitter-friendly venues in the minors, and he has gotten progressively better in the big leagues (.296 wOBA in 2007, .330 in ’08). Chase Field certainly helps, but even in a neutral venue, Montero has been impressive. Miguel has posted +10.6 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value) this season, 5th among all backstops.

Montero is an awfully liberal swinger, taking a cut at 29.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone and hacking at 75.3% of offerings within the zone (the averages are about 25% and 66%, respectively). However, that aggressive approach has not manifested in a high first-pitch strike percentage (his 55.2 F-Strike% is below the 58% MLB average), and Montero has drawn a walk in 8.6% of his PA.

Stock Down

Alex Rios, White Sox

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, um, isn’t exactly fond of his newly-acquired outfielder. Picked up from the Blue Jays in a straight waiver claim in August, Rios has compiled a line with the Good Guys that would make DeWayne Wise puff his chest out in comparison (.140/.156/.215 in 97 PA).

The 28 year-old’s wOBA has plummeted from the .350-.360 range from 2006-2008 to a paltry .302 in 2009. Has Rios been the victim of very poor luck, or is there something deeper going on here?

The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274.

Even assuming all of those additional hits would be singles, that takes Rios’ line to .274/.322/.421 instead of .242/.290/.389. That equates to a wOBA of about .334. Clearly a step down from his ’06-’08 lines, though his league-average bat and typically plus defense might make that contract less onerous than it appears to be at first glance.

Of course, that’s not to say there’s no reason to be concerned. Consider the following trends:

-Rios’ walk rate has dipped 7.9% of his PA in 2007, 6.5% in ’08 and just 5.9% in 2009
-His K rate has risen from 16% in ’07, 17.6% in ’08 and 19.1% in ’09
-Rios’ ISO has fallen from .201 in ’07, .170 in ’08 and .147 in ’09
-Alex is getting jammed more often, with his infield/ fly ball rate climbing from 6.6% in ’07, 7.9% in ’08 and 12% in ’09
-Rios’ performance vs. fastballs has fallen off a cliff: +2.30 runs per 100 fastballs seen in ’06, +1.75 in ’07, +0.79 in ’08 and -0.13 in ’09.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Davies’ appearance here might seem like a head-scratcher. After all, the former Braves prospect has surrendered just two runs in 17 September innings. The results are great. The process, however, is not.

Davies has dished out six walks in each of his past two starts. The 26 year-old righty has long struggled to hone his low-90’s heat, high-80’s slider/cutter, mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup. Davies has issued 4.49 BB/9 during his major league career, and he is up to 4.83 BB/9 in 2009.

It’s just plain difficult to have any kind of sustained success when you put yourself at the mercy of the batter so frequently. Davies has placed just 43.6% of his pitches within the strike zone this season (49% MLB average). Not surprisingly, that has led to his falling behind the hitter often (52.2% first-pitch strike percentage). Davies’ punitive demotion to AAA Omaha offered promise (46.1 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), but he hasn’t been able to avoid the free passes with K.C.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Signed to a 2-year, $18.5M pact during the off-season, Renteria has been little more than replacement-level in 2009 (0.2 WAR). While the 34 year-old plays a passable shortstop, his bat (-19 Batting Runs) has been all kinds of awful, even by Giants standards. Renteria’s pop continues to wane:

ISO, by year

2006: .144
2007: .138
2008: .111
2009: .079

Jermaine Dye, White Sox

Dye (who turns 36 this off-season) may find the free agent waters to be downright frosty this winter. His outfield D is DH-worthy (-17.4 UZR/150 in RF in 2009, and that’s an improvement on his 2006-2008 work). At the plate, Dye has been MIA since the All-Star break (.166/.266/.269; Jermaine, meet Alex. Alex, Jermaine).

It’s probably best not to jump to the conclusion that he’s suddenly “done”, though. Gruesome second half and all, Dye still has a .341 wOBA for the season, with a .204 ISO. His BABIP since the Midsummer Classic is stunningly low at .182.

Chris Volstad, Marlins

Volstad was vaporized for 24 runs in 19.2 IP during August, walking 13 batters and allowing 33 hits. His first September start (3 IP, 5 R, 5 BB) went little better.

Overall, though, Volstad has compiled a decent 4.39 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate). He has rates of 6.1 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9, but a huge 17.3 HR/FB% has put a massive dent in his ERA (now up to 5.17). The average for pitchers tends to be around 11-12%, and Volstad’s rate is the highest among all starters. That number should could down in 2010.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

With the MLB rosters expanding from the standard 25 men to as many as 40 players, we’re switching things up this week and taking a look at some of the more interesting prospects making their MLB debuts.

Buster Posey: There was some talk that San Francisco would delay Posey’s promotion to the Majors in an effort to save some money, but the organization did the right thing and brought him up for a taste of the Majors. Posey has proven that his bat and glove are MLB ready. In a perfect world (keeping in mind their GM loves veterans), Posey would spend 2010 seeing 60-70% of the playing time behind the dish with San Francisco. A veteran catcher – Bengie Molina if he’s up to the decreased role – would then see the remainder of the playing time while serving as a mentor to the rookie backstop. There isn’t much that Posey cannot do with the bat; he hits for power (.200 ISO), for average (.310 at AAA) and takes his fair share of walks (11.9% in AAA). Overall, the 22-year-old prospect hit .325/.416/.531 in 422 at-bats at high-A and triple-A.

Tyler Flowers: Flowers cannot match Posey’s overall game but this White Sox prospect could make veteran A.J. Pierzynski expendable after the 2010 season – if not before. Flowers might struggle to hit for a high average because he has trouble making contact sometimes (30.5 K%), but he posted a .246 ISO in 248 double-A at-bats before moving up to triple-A. Flowers, an average backstop, also takes a ton of walks, having posted a 19.2% walk rate in 2008 and a rate of 18.7% in double-A in ’09. Flowers has been a lefty killer in his minor-league career and hit .358 against them this year with an OPS of 1.119.

Wade Davis: With the trade of Scott Kazmir, the Rays acquired a few interesting young names, while also opening up a rotation spot for either Andy Sonnanstine or Davis. The right-handed rookie has been a top prospect in the system for a few years now but his numbers were just good in triple-A… as opposed to great. Now 24, Davis allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work at triple-A in 2009, while posting a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.86 K/9. He is the early favorite to replace Kazmir in the 2010 starting rotation, although Sonnanstine has the experience edge.

Michael Brantley: Obtained as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal last year, this outfielder is not a slam-dunk star but he has more than enough talent to be a valuable contributor to the Indians and your fantasy squad. Brantley understands his game very well for a 22 year old. The left-handed hitter had a bit of a down year in triple-A this season but he still walked more than he struck out (1.23 BB/K) and he posted an 11.4 BB%. He stole a career high 43 bases in 48 attempts but hit just .267 (.288 BABIP). At worst, he should be a very valuable fourth outfielder and pinch runner.

Josh Thole: Another catcher, Thole was converted from first base to catcher and has really improved his value to the point where he is one of the brighter up-and-coming backstop prospects. A left-handed hitter, Thole has hit .300+ in each of the past two seasons, including .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats in double-A this year. He’ll need to keep that average up because he has almost no power to speak of, as witnessed by his .094 ISO.

Neil Walker: Walker’s star has diminished significantly from the days when he was the top prospect in the Pirates system. He’s struggled in triple-A for two straight seasons and is currently sandwiched in between Andy LaRoche and Pedro Alvarez. Walker could end up as a AAAA slugger, or a bench player, which is a far cry from the days that the Pittsburgh native was the club’s No. 1 draft pick out of high school. This year he hit just .266/.312/.484 with 14 homers in 353 at-bats. The .218 ISO is nice, but the 6.6% walk rate is not.

Divisional races are heating up, both in the fantasy world and MLB standings. It’s time to bear down and make that final push toward the playoffs. With that in mind, let’s check out some fantasy links…

Brandon Funston of Yahoo! Sports puts a fantasy spin on John Smoltz’s impressive return to the National League. “St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan has been known to work magic with reclamation projects and I think Smoltz still has plenty to offer,” Funston writes. “His upcoming schedule sets up nicely, with Washington and Pittsburgh next on his starting agenda.”

Brian L. Schubert of Fantasy Baseball Cafe joins the ogling of Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz. Setup men don’t often carry much fantasy value, but a 21-year-old who posts a 0.63 ERA, 0.35 WHIP and 19/1 K/BB ratio in his first 14-plus major league innings clearly deserves attention from all realms of the sport.

Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot checks out some potential September call-ups both in the American League and Nationals League. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and San Diego’s Aaron Poreda. It’s sometimes surprising how much of an impact these guys can have.

In desperate need of steals? Aren’t we all? Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com runs down some potential September call-ups who boast fantasy-worthy wheels. The Rockies’ Eric Young Jr., Oakland’s Eric Patterson and Cleveland’s Michael Brantley top the list.

Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com takes a deeper look at “The Resurgence of Barry Zito.” As Flowers notes, over the last 30 days, Zito “has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).” FanGraphs’ own Erik Manning delivered a post on Zito late last week.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse takes note of Ryan Zimmerman’s recent hot streak. The Washington third baseman has posted a .359 average, .512 on-base percentage and .781 slugging percentage in the month August, with seven homers, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored. White suggests Zimmerman could be a top-25 player heading into next season.

Have a fantasy-relevant link you think others should see? Or simply have a question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tim Alderson: We hear a lot about Madison Bumgarner and deservedly so, but Alderson could very well beat the big left-hander to the Majors. Like Bumgarner, Alderson was drafted out of high school in the 2007 draft. Although his stuff is not as electric, he has better overall command and control. In fact, Alderson, 20, has walked just five batters all season (58.2 innings), including two in six double-A starts. If a spot is not open in the starting rotation for the right-hander, he could initially slide into the bullpen to offer some long relief.

Blake Parker: It’s been an interesting ride through the minors for the Cubs prospects, but he’s finally nearing his shot. Originally a 16th round selection in 2006 out of the University of Arkansas, Parker started out his pro career as a third base, but did not hit very well. With a strong arm, the club moved him to the mound and his career took off. The right-hander features a good sinker that can touch 95 mph and his secondary stuff, a slider and changeup, is improving rapidly. So far this season, he has yet to allow a home run in 24.1 innings and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. His control (13 walks) still needs a little work.

Luis Perez: The Jays took a gamble on aggressively promoting Perez from low-A to double-A to begin the 2009 season. The southpaw was older (22) than the traditional Latin player when he came over to North America in 2007. He throws harder than most left-handers and he gets an incredible amount of ground balls to go along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. He has a ground-ball rate of 57.2% in 2009 despite the two-level jump and it was 60.6% in 2008. If he can sharpen his command just a bit more, he has the makings of a No. 3 or 4 starter. Worst case scenario, he could be a loogy, with left-handed batters hitting just .188 against him at double-A.

Chris Heisey: Everyone just keeps waiting for Heisey’s hot streak to come to an end. Cincinnati’s double-A outfielder, though, just keeps getting stronger with a line of .370/.446/.621 in 219 at-bats. He also has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases and has walked more than he’s struck out (1.17 BB/K). Heisey hit .338 in April, .404 in May, and he’s well above .300 in June so far. It’s about time for Cincinnati to find room in triple-A for the 24-year-old prospect.

Michael Brantley: One of the pieces that Cleveland acquired for C.C. Sabathia, Brantley just keeps doing what he does best: Hit. Only 22, he’s already playing in triple-A and has a line of .275/.354/.381 with 19 steals in 218 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has a career .306 average and he has stolen 123 bases in 154 attempts (80%). He’s also walked 50 times more than he’s struck out in his career, which bodes extremely well for a top-of-the-order hitter. Brantley’s biggest weakness is his below-average defense in the outfield.

Scott Sizemore: Detroit desperately needs depth in the minor league system, so it’s nice to see a prospect improving his value in the upper levels of the minor league system. Sizemore has advanced through the system rather slowly for a college-drafted player but he’s almost MLB ready now. The second baseman has shown improved numbers in 2009 with a line of .306/.403/.532 and nine homers in 216 at-bats. The 24-year-old infielder has the potential to produce at least a few above-average offensive seasons, especially with his increased power numbers (perhaps stemming from being healthy after a hand injury in 2008).

Gaby Sanchez: The Florida Marlins team has had a tough year and the club has quickly slid down the standings in the National League East. If the team continues to struggle, current first baseman Jorge Cantu could find himself on the way out of town in return for some cheaper talent. If that happens, Sanchez could earn a shot as the everyday first baseman. He almost earned the opening day assignment (with Cantu manning third), but a poor spring doomed him to triple-A and then he was sidelined with an injury. Now healthy, he’s hitting .337/.409/.515 in 21 games.