Archive for Mets

It seems the more we think to know about the Red Sox bullpen, perhaps the less we do? Matt Barnes opened the season as the highest leverage reliever, capable of appearing at any point when needed by manager Alex Cora. Last night, this happened, but with Ryan Brasier entering the game in the top of the seventh with runners on second and third base with two outs, taking on the A’s most dangerous hitter, Khris Davis. Brasier retired Davis with a strikeout, then threw a clean eighth getting the win in relief for his efforts. After Boston extended its lead, Hector Velasquez opened the ninth but only recorded one out while loading the bases on a hit and two walks. This pressed Barnes into duty and he responded with his second save. Read the rest of this entry »

In my most recent post, I lamented that I waited too long to take Greg Allen in my TGFBI draft, even though his ADP is well outside the top 300. It was as crushing a blow as one can have in Round 18 of a 15-team draft, as players with the potential to steal 20-plus bases are hard to come by, even in the earlier rounds. THE BAT projects 22 players to steal at least 20 bases this season, and Steamer projects only 19 players to reach that threshold. (ATC is more optimistic, admitting 29 players into the 20-plus projected steals club.)

Worse yet, a number of those players are across-the-board contributors (most notably Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor) who will be long gone before the time you realize you need to catch up on steals. The reality is that it’s hard to make up for lost ground in stolen bases in the final rounds of your drafts, but that’s precisely the time you can toss up a Hail Mary. There are a handful of players who not only could give you 15 steals, but some moderate power as well, making it more worth your while to target them.
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As we anticipate Dallas Keuchel finding a new home this offseason, we should probably be wondering more about where he will be locating his sinker in 2019 than where his moving van is headed.

Sinker location has been key to Keuchel’s success, and his mostly-consistent five-year run has been nearly unique this decade. When he shaved more than two runs off his ERA from 2013 to 2014, Keuchel had a dramatic breakout that may have been most notable for what didn’t change. He didn’t throw substantially harder. He wasn’t notably better at throwing strikes or getting whiffs, chases or freezes. Keuchel did induce more grounders, but his biggest improvement came in his avoidance of hard contact. His rate dropped from 29.3 percent to 19.7 percent, and in the four seasons that followed, Keuchel continued to demonstrate that skill — as long as his sinker was down and away from righties.
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As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
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I have been wanting to write about Steven Matz for some time, and this column is providing me with a reason to do so. Since Matz is coming off two good starts, I’m genuinely intrigued by what might be different for him lately, but he has been a curiosity all season.
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In what seems like the most volatile August in recent memory for closers, the attrition continues with Aroldis Chapman officially landing on the 10-day disabled list due to tendinitis in his knee. Luckily for the Yankees, their full stable of veteran pitchers stocked with closing experience along with the “Terminator” in the eighth, Dellin Betances should be able to survive Chapman’s absence and allow him to rest his knee, an injury which dates back to May. Due to the Yankees loss last night, there’s no clear blueprint to how Aaron Boone will handle high leverage going forward, but according to this tweet, plan on David Robertson (135 career saves) and Zach Britton (139 career saves) to be in the mix with Dellin Betances (32 career saves):

Boone said Yankees will “mix and match” with Britton, Robertson and Betances when it comes to closing games. With a deep and versatile pen, Boone feels Yanks are “equipped” to handle Chapman’s DL stint.

— JackCurryYES (@JackCurryYES) August 22, 2018

Recent usage suggests Boone may prefer to keep Betances in the eighth inning where he’s been a dominant force of late recording at least one strikeout in 31 straight games fueling his 0.58 ERA over his last 32 outings with 53 strikeouts. Robertson’s nursing a sore shoulder, which allowed Tommy Kahnle to record the save on Tuesday, but should be available going forward. Look for the Yankees to mix and match the ninth inning with the two veterans with “closing experience” while Chapman tries to get healthy.

It’s tough to pile on a struggling pitcher, especially one returning from an irregular heartbeat and the birth of his child, but Kenley Jansen suffered his second loss in the span of three days allowing three hits, two earned runs (on a home run by Paul DeJong) and struck out one during his appearance Wednesday night. Jansen’s given up home runs in back-to-back appearances twice this season after only doing so once his prior eight seasons. Also, Jansen’s served up nine home runs in 2018 in 56.1 innings which matches his total from the previous two in 137 innings. With the velocity and effectiveness of his cutter vacillating this season, Jansen’s struggles exposes the entire Dodgers bullpen. During the second half, Jansen’s saved five games with the two recent losses, produced a 4.50 ERA in nine games with a 5.96 FIP but 15 strikeouts against two walks with a 1.20 WHIP. His 33.3 home run per fly ball rate should stabilize but only if the 44 percent hard hit percentage subsides. It’s a tenuous time to own Jansen, in fantasy and real life.

Looking past the hot start of Seranthony Dominguez could be tough to do. However, his sluggish second half suggests fantasy owners may need to bench him if the home runs persist. Dominguez started his save chance looking strong recording outs against the first two hitters he faced. Then, Dominguez could not bury a slider enough to get Juan Soto to swing and miss resulting in a foul ball. Soto then hit the next pitch down the line for a double leading to Ryan Zimmerman’s walk-off two run home run. Dominguez battled control issues last in July but has not walked a batter in August instead, he’s served up three home runs leading to five earned runs allowed. Like Jansen, Dominguez has seen his home run per fly ball spike since the break to 27.3 percent, his hard hit rate to 37 percent while getting fewer swings and misses (11.7 swinging strike percentage). This equates to Dominguez 6.10 ERA, 6.74 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in the second half. If he can get the movement back on his slider, Dominguez could bounce back, but stashing Pat Neshek (three saves already this season) may be a good idea with the team needing to convert every win possible. Stay tuned.

Although A.J. Minter threw a positive side session on Wednesday, and being available on Wednesday night, manager Brian Snitker wanted to provide him with one more day of rest to get Minter’s back healthy. Jonny Venters notched his second save of the season, and first since May 28th with Tampa Bay, allowing a hit with a strikeout in Pittsburgh. Venters has been terrific since joining the Braves with 8.2 scoreless innings along with three holds and a save his last four appearances. Minter owners can breathe a sigh of relief knowing he will be back in the saddle as the closer going forward.

Owning Robert Gsellman for fantasy must be frustrating. On the one hand, he’s in the midst of a 10.2 inning scoreless streak spanning nine games and struck out two batters in a clean eighth inning last night. However, during this streak, Gsellman’s recorded only two saves with three holds. In the eighth inning, the Mets used Gsellman to work the highest leverage inning remaining facing Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. Then, Mickey Callaway cobbled together the ninth inning using Daniel Zamora to strikeout Brandon Crawford and Paul Sewald for the last two outs resulting in his first career save. The good news, Gsellman’s remains Callaway’s most trusted reliever, the bad news, he’s the primary closer but will face teams best hitters when necessary to preserve a win.

Perhaps a sneak preview of coming events for the Astros? Roberto Osuna notched his first save with Houston in a clean ninth inning striking out one in Seattle. One day after the team hinted Osuna’s the primary closer going forward. This marks his first save since May sixth and fantasy owners should act accordingly, but keep in mind A.J. Hinch will play match-ups as well, so as Al Melchior suggested yesterday, cutting Hector Rondon in all formats could be a mistake in leagues where every save matters. Rondon’s converted 14 of his last 17 save chances and could pitch the ninth as he did on Tuesday.

Quick Hits: It appears the Brewers have reverted back to their shared ninth inning duties when Corey Knebel landed on the disabled list with Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader sharing the work. Jeffress converted his fifth save striking out one in 1.1 innings on Wednesday.

As the White Sox bullpen turns landed on Juan Minaya pitching 1.2 scoreless innings giving up two hits and Hector Santiago in the ninth allowing a hit and a walk with two strikeouts. Still leaning Jace Fry here for the next save, but it’s a mystery.

Jose LeClerc continues to thrive as the closer in Texas. He notched his sixth save despite walking two hitters with two strikeouts. LeClerc’s reeled off 11 straight scoreless outings and owns a 0.79 ERA his last 23 games. Over his last nine games, LeClerc’s held hitters to two hits in 29 at-bats, walked three and struck out 17 converting all six saves and finishing each of the Rangers’ seven wins in this stretch.

Working in a non-save outing, Felipe Vazauez struck out one in a clean ninth. He’s saved 17 in a row and struck out 40 his last 25 innings with a 0.74 ERA his last 24.1 innings.

Sergio Romo saved his 18th game allowing two hits but no runs. Romo’s converted his last five saves and been scoreless his last six. Scouts continue to watch him and Romo could be a waiver deadline trade to a contender. If this happens, stash Jose Alvarado now where available. Alvarado retired the only hitter he faced via strikeout and has struck out seven of the last 12 he’s faced.

Since Bud Norris pitched the two previous games, Jordan Hicks recorded his fifth save striking out the side in Los Angeles. He’s back to striking out hitters with six his last two outings and Hicks along with Dakota Hudson continue to provide depth in the bullpen for the Cardinals.

One injury update. Brandon Morrow continues to target September for a return but reports suggest it’s realistic and optimistic? Morrow’s been on the disabled list since Juley 18th and will undergo further testing on Friday for a clearer picture on how to proceed with his rehab and perhaps a timetable will emerge then.

Sorry for the late entry, received a call to the bullpen to fill-in on short notice, suddenly understanding how a reliever feels. As to the action on Monday night, a small slate of games provided plenty of upheaval. For the third straight game, the Dodgers bullpen cratered giving up a late lead leading to its fourth loss in a row. Scott Alexander, who owns the last save recorded by this bullpen, served up four hits and four runs (three earned) in two-thirds of an inning resulting in his second blown save and first loss of the season. While the team tries to retool the depth in high leverage innings, neither Kenta Maeda nor Ross Stripling have worked since their starts in Colorado. Due to the past performances by Dylan Floro, Alexander and J.T. Chargois, it stands to reason Maeda or Stripling will be available in relief going forward. Do not count out Caleb Ferguson either.

Ferguson’s being prepared to work in back-to-back games and has pitched well as a reliever. In 11 outings as a reliever, Ferguson’s 3-0 with two saves, a 1.14 ERA in 23.2 innings, owns an enticing 28:3 K:BB and a respectable 0.80 WHIP. Also, Julio Urias could rejoin this group soon to add more upside in the late innings. Due to the fluidity, owning a reliever for primary saves could be tough on the Dodgers, so keep focused on how the rest of the week progresses noting how Dave Roberts deploys his new cache of options in order to determine the new hierarchy in high leverage. Read the rest of this entry »

Just one day being used in a low-leverage situation, Corey Knebel was thrust into the 10th inning of a tie game with the Rockies. To his credit, Knebel breezed through the inning, allowing only a two-out walk to David Dahl. Three of the four batters he faced were left-handed, and Knebel’s recent struggles have occurred disproportionately against right-handed batters. Craig Counsell left Knebel in for the 11th inning, and after retiring leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, he was set to face two tough righties, DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado. The latter put the Rockies ahead with a solo home run.
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On Tuesday night, the Twins shut out the Blue Jays, 5-0, and while it was a superb performance by Jose Berrios, there wasn’t much of interest as far as relief work goes.

Or so I thought. A commenter for Wednesday morning’s Bullpen Report, docgooden85, pointed out a few things that are worth noting for those speculating on future Twins saves. Trevor Hildenberger, who we have listed in the “First Up” column in the closer’s grid, did pitch the eighth inning, but in the aftermath of a couple of recent ineffective performances, he did it with a five-run lead. Also, in Ryan Pressly (1.38 ERA and 18 strikeouts over his last 13 innings) and the recovering Addison Reed (elbow impingement), Hildenberger has a couple of rivals for saves down the stretch, should the Twins trade Fernando Rodney.
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As daunting as chasing saves can be, adding in the pending trade deadline to trade rumors makes it difficult to publish an early report. But here we are. News of a hugwatch broke out on Twitter suggesting Jeurys Familia could be on the move. He did not enter an obvious save opportunity against the Yankees on the road leaving Robert Gsellman in for the two inning save. While news broke on which teams would not be adding Familia, it appears the focus centers on Oakland trying to obtain his services to add to their already stocked bullpen. If the A’s do not wish to overpay in a scarce starting pitcher market, why not try to shorten games with a deep bullpen? Familia’s yet to allow a run in seven scoreless outings in July yielding one hit in them. He’s also been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 appearances. It needs to be pointed out Familia should setup if he joins the A’s due to his inability to get left-handed hitters out this year (.288 batting average against).

However, since there’s no official word as of this writing, the charts will not be updated until teams announce a deal. As for the Mets, it appears Robert Gsellman could transition to the closer role with Anthony Swarzak struggling and Seth Lugo needed for multiple inning outings. Gsellman did give up two unearned runs against the Yankees on two hits and two walks with two strikeouts during his two inning save. It’s his fifth save this year but Gsellman will need to rebound in the second half in order to appeal to fantasy owners. He’s coughed up 13 earned runs over his last 12 games (14.1 innings) resulting in a 8.18 ERA. Perhaps the break will help him bounce back, but it could be a bumpy ride if he does ascend to the ninth inning. Read the rest of this entry »