Archive for Mariners

It has been 33 days since the Mariners moved Wade LeBlanc into their rotation. In that time he has quietly made six starts, all with game scores of 50 or higher. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of the outings, compiling a 1.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

I say LeBlanc has done all of this quietly, because he is being ignored almost universally in mixed leagues. He is owned in 18 percent of the leagues on CBS and 10 percent of ESPN leagues. You could argue that, for all of LeBlanc’s accomplishments over the last five weeks, there are reasons to avoid him in fantasy. His track record is not exactly distinguished, and in nine prior seasons in the majors, only once did he pitch more than 80 innings. Even with the success LeBlanc has had with preventing runs and limiting baserunners this season, he is striking out batters at a pedestrian 19.1 percent rate.

According to ESPN’s Player Rater, he ranks just 55th in Roto value among starting pitchers over the past 30 days, though he ranks 29th among relief-eligible pitchers. In CBS points leagues with default settings, LeBlanc fares a little better, ranking 4oth among starters and 15th among relievers over the past 28 days.

However, this version of LeBlanc — the one of the last 33 days — has been different. He has been throwing his sinker more often, using it at a 34.0 percent rate, and it’s a pitch he throws for strikes. More importnat, he has substantially decreased his Z-Swing% on the pitch. Last season, hitters offered at his sinkers in the strike zone at a 64.1 percent rate, but this season (including his work in relief) they are swinging at it only 56.8 percent of the time in the zone. LeBlanc has also improved his control on his changeup, but when he locates it outside of the strike zone, he’s getting a few more chases, as his O-Swing% on the pitch has increased from 45.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

Since the beginning of May, LeBlanc has been almost unique in his ability to both freeze batters on good pitches and induce chases on bad ones. Last month, he and Zack Greinke were the only qualified starters to be among the 10 pitchers with the lowest Z-Swing% and the 10 pitchers with the highest O-Swing%. During that period, LeBlanc was the only one to make the top three of both lists.

The graph below includes stats for the entire 2018 season, and LeBlanc stands out, along with Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Domingo German, as a master of the freeze and the chase. What separates LeBlanc from the other three, aside from fantasy popularity, is the lack of a double-digit swinging strike rate. I have color-coded the pitchers in the graph for swinging strike rate, and the redder the dots, the fewer the whiffs. LeBlanc’s 8.0 swinging strike rate qualifies him for a very red dot.

While I did say that this version of LeBlanc is different, he has posted a high O-Swing% and low Z-Swing in the same season once before. In 2016, he got chases at a 35.7 percent rate and swings on pitches in the zone at a 64.1 percent rate. That year, however, LeBlanc allowed 14 home runs in 62 innings. He did get plenty of harmless flyballs; according to xStats.org, his popup rate was an above-average 22.6 percent. However, his high drive rate — representative of the most damaging type of contact — was 12.6 percent, as compared to the major league average of 10.0 percent.

What truly makes LeBlanc different this season is that he has made his contact-friendly approach work for him. His popup rate is up to 26.8 percent, while his high drive rate is a modest 8.0 percent. LeBlanc has allowed five home runs in 45 innings this season, and as a starter, he has given up three home runs in 31.1 innings. The sheer volume of popups has helped the lefty post a .271 BABIP on the season, and that in turn has contributed to a .240/.279/.368 slash line for opposing hitters.

To sum up, LeBlanc has been getting batters to leave his pitches in the strike zone alone and go after his pitches out of the zone. Hitters are connecting frequently when they do swing, but in contrast to his past track record, LeBlanc is not allowing them to do much damage, particularly in the form of extra-base hits. He is doing several things at an exceedingly high level except the one thing that fantasy owners typically care the most about.

Now that LeBlanc is stretched out, he should build on his grand total of one win, so he may be better than just a top-60 starting pitcher going forward. His lack of strikeouts will limit his value, but the same can be said of Kyle Hendricks, who also relies on favorable walk, called strike and soft contact rates for success. It’s taken Hendricks a while to get his due, and I suspect that even if LeBlanc continues to thrive, it will take him some time to get recognition as well. While there are good reasons to be reluctant to buy into LeBlanc right now, it’s time to take the gamble on him in deeper mixed leagues.

Owning Edwin Diaz can be a wild ride. After his hot start to the season, he’s allowed runs his last two appearances causing his ERA to rise from 1.59 to 3.03 as a result. Prior to this rough patch, Diaz pitched seven times in a 10-day stretch from May 20th through his four run implosion on the 29th. Recalling last year, Diaz did lose his mechanics and the closer role for a brief period. In spite of the recent struggles, Diaz has a 43.1 strikeout percentage and saves in 19 of his 22 chances this season and WHIP still below one (0.91). His new teammate, Alex Colome could help share the burden of high leverage since the Mariners attract close games.

Since joining the Mariners, Colome’s recorded two holds and a save retiring nine of 10 batters faced. Prior to joining Seattle, Colome had notched 10 consecutive saves for the Rays. Due to the patience the team has displayed in the past with Diaz, his owners should not panic. But continued struggles will put pressure on Diaz who should benefit from the tutelage of Colome and insurance he provides giving Diaz a much needed break from over usage patterns. Read the rest of this entry »

Drafting Alex Colome comes with inherent risk due to his sometimes volatile nature. Colome started the season giving up seven earned runs and 14 hits over his initial seven innings in eight outings resulting in two blown saves. His five losses leads the majors of all qualified relievers. However, Colome seemed to right the ship with a 1.84 ERA during his last 15 innings, including 10 consecutive saves with 17 strikeouts since April ninth. Many believed Colome would be traded to a contender, just not in May. However, Seattle bolstered its already strong bullpen by acquiring Colome to pitch in a setup role and provide insurance for Edwin Diaz along with necessary days off to keep him healthy.

Trying to predict how Kevin Cash will navigate high leverage innings in the near term seems impossible to do. The dreaded committee approach seems prudent to plan on with Chaz Roe, Jose Alvarado and Sergio Romo figuring in the mix. Roe’s struggled of late with a 6.75 ERA his last 12 appearances (six earned runs in eight innings) dating back to April 27th. HE has entered a Rays game in a tie or with a lead 19 of 24 times and in the seventh inning or later in 16 outings. Most fantasy owners would like to see Jose Alvarado ascend to the closer role due to his effectiveness this year along with his enticing fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Nothing all that momentous occurred in bullpens on Wednesday. Mark Melancon got activated two days ahead of schedule, ending the brief but largely successful run of Derek Law. Dellin Betances recorded his first save of the season by getting one out on four pitches. Ben Taylor got his first career save, because the Red Sox had already used their other seven relievers in a 13-inning affair in St. Louis.

But the biggest impact on a closer situation came on Tuesday. Mariners manager Scott Servais announced he was removing Edwin Diaz from the closer’s role, as the 23-year-old’s struggles came to a head on Monday. Diaz walked four straight batters and had to be removed with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning in an eventual 6-5 win over the Athletics. Servais told the Seattle Times he planned on mixing and matching any of four relievers — Steve Cishek, Tony Zych, Nick Vincent and Marc Rzepczynski — in save situations. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not as if the Chicago Cubs’ trade for started-turned-reliever-turned-starter Mike Montgomery came cheap. Dan Vogelbach isn’t a top-flight prospect, but with plus power and a solid plate approach at Triple-A Iowa this season, it’s not like he’s a nobody, either.

Then again, neither is Montgomery. A supplemental first-round pick almost 10 years ago, he was a Kansas City Royals top-5 prospect for four straight years and a Baseball America top-40 prospect for three of them. Then 2012 came; he was thrown into the James Shields–Wade Davis–Wil Myers–Jake Odorizzi blockbuster before continuing to generally fail to impress anyone. The Seattle Mariners acquired him in 2015, the year in which he debuted, in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez, and Montgomery delivered 16 suboptimal starts. He’s in Chicago now, providing relief every sixth day to a starting rotation that has generated the best staff WHIP in more than 100 years. Cool. Got that out of the way.

Montgomery is no ordinary sixth starter, though. I beg you to read this automated scouting report generated by Brooks Baseball regarding Montgomery’s pitches and their outcomes in 2016. Extreme number of ground balls. Blazing fast. Extremely high number of swings & misses. The remarks for all five of Montgomery’s pitches are, in a word, glowing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 91

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Seattle Mariners and the Miami Marlins.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 67 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Let’s face it, even in leagues of 10 to 12 teams, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak. Every once in a while you get to fight for some hit, young rookie like we all did for Christian Yelich the other day, but beyond that, it’s about fill-ins and stopgaps as opposed to long-term solutions. The middle infield is particularly ugly on this front so you have to dig deep. You still won’t find that perfect guy you’re looking for, but you might find someone who will stick for the duration of the season such as… Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy Players spend a tremendous amount of time every season chasing Saves. Relief pitchers are for the most part inherently unreliable and unpredictable and there tends to be a tremendous amount of turnover at the position. So with so much unreliability among relievers, why bother investing in relief prospects? Well, there are some arms out there who are just so filthy they demand your attention. Sure, you can make do finding the next Casey Janssen and get a solid solution for a year or two… but there’s also something to be said for finding the next K-Rod before he explodes on to the scene. Here are three of my favorite prospects who could be racking up Saves in the near future.

Bruce Rondon, RHP, Detroit Tigers

You all know the score here. Rondon shouldn’t be a new name to any of you, but all the same you can’t do a relief pitcher prospect article and not mention him, can you? The young Venezuelan fireballer had a shot to run away with the 9th inning job in Detroit this Spring but command lapses and inconsistency have him back at Toledo to start the year. Rondon began 2012 in the Florida State League but dominated minor league hitters with an overpowering fastball that hits triple digits. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup is a Jack of all trades, but a master of none.

• With Kyle Farnsworth being transferred to the 60-day DL, Fernando Rodney’s hold on the job only grows stronger. Rodney has been shockingly great this year, which could be due to magic voodoo or his increased reliance on his two-seam fastball. I still don’t have the utmost confidence in Rodney, but I’d feel pretty good if I owned him right about now.

Read the rest of this entry »

In 2006 and 2007 J.J. Putz was one of the top closers in baseball. In those two years he notched 76 saves and struck out 186 batters in 150 innings while posting WHIPs under 1.000 each season. But injuries dogged him in 2008 as he suffered through a strained oblique and a hyperextended right elbow.

The velocity was there for Putz last year, but his control abandoned him. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, which was a tick higher than it was in 2007, but his BB/9 jumped from 1.63 to 5.44 in 2008. The final month of the season offered hope for Putz, as he posted 13 strikeouts and two walks in eight innings.

Putz gave up a few more line drives last year (20.2 percent versus 17.0 percent in ’07) but his other numbers were right in line with what he did in his outstanding 2007 season. His arm is healthy, his velocity is there (PitchFX had him at 98.5 in his final game of the season) and there is no discernible difference in his skill set other than the walks.

Fantasy players should monitor his control over results in Spring Training. Assuming he shows no Steve Blass tendencies, Putz has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players on Draft Day next season. There are trade rumors surrounding him this off-season, but that has more to do with the value of a top-flight closer on a 101-loss team than any issues regarding his health. Regardless of which team he ends up with, Putz should be one of the top three-to-five closers taken.