Archive for Justin Morneau

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Scott Baker – Right now his ERA is a poor 4.93 and his WHIP checks in at 1.36, not what owners were expecting when they drafted him in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft. But Baker has a 3.91 K/BB ratio and both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3.65 range. It has been feast or famine for Baker this year, with four Quality Starts and three outings where he gave up 5 ER or more. But this is the same guy who went 26-13 over the two previous seasons with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. Baker has a .342 BABIP, so there is reason to hope the beatings will taper off once regression kicks in.

Edwin Jackson – Most fantasy owners did not expect a repeat of Jackson’s 2009, when he posted 13 Wins and a 3.62 ERA. But few expected him to be 2-5 with a 6.33 ERA in the third week of May, either. Jackson’s xFIP actually shows him as a better pitcher this year (4.08) than a season ago (4.39). Right now he is being hurt by the gopher ball, having allowed 8 HR in 54 IP. Six of those homers have come in home starts, as Jackson is adjusting to pitching in Chase Field. But Jackson has dramatically increased his GB/FB rate from 0.92 to 1.47 this year. His K/9 rate is up to 7.33 from 6.77 a year ago. If his HR/FB rate moves away from its current 15.1 percent, Jackson could see a huge boost in his fantasy value.

Magglio Ordonez – In 2007 Ordonez combined for 256 R + RBIs thanks in part to a .595 SLG. The following year he was down to 175 R + RBIs and a .494 SLG and last year those marks were 104 and .428, respectively. Ordonez is off to a fast start, one that has him on pace to better 2008’s numbers. There will be owners out there looking to sell high on Ordonez, but neither his BABIP (.323 vs. 318 lifetime) nor HR/FB (12.5 vs. 13.5) are unsustainable. His 1.35 BB/K is the best mark of his career as is his 90.2 Contact%. Since contact rate is one of the quickest stats to stabilize (150 PA), Ordonez’ is likely to maintain his improvement in this area for the remainder of the season.

SELL

Andrew McCutchen – A fast start has McCutchen on pace to shatter pre-season expectations. But if a .376 BABIP raises eyebrows for an unsustainable rate, the Dutton-Carty xBABIP model has McCutchen’s line so far this year producing a .323 BABIP. McCutchen’s power in 2009 in the majors caught a lot of people by surprise but he has matched that production so far this year, too. But it is unlikely that he will maintain an AVG 40-50 points higher than all of the projection systems forecasted for him. McCutchen should not be traded at all costs, but now is an excellent time to cash in on his great start.

Justin Morneau – He currently leads the league in AVG and is third in home runs. Morneau is achieving that with a .404 BABIP and career-high marks in both FB% (52.4) and HR/FB (20.0). A high BABIP usually does not accompany a high FB%. Of the eight batters with a 50 percent or better FB%, only three have a BABIP over .300, so it is very likely that at least one of these marks is going to have to give. Traditionally, Morneau has been an excellent RBI man. But even with his great start in AVG and HR, he is on pace to deliver fewer RBIs than either 2006 or 2008. Like McCutchen, Morneau is another guy who will produce good numbers throughout the 2010 season. But his trade value will never be higher.

David Price – Over-hyped in 2009, Price fell off the radar for a lot of fantasy owners heading into drafts this year. He has rewarded fantasy owners who did not give up on him with a fantastic start, as he is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA. However, by xFIP, Price is not substantially better in 2010 than he was a season ago, when he finished 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. This year’s xFIP is 3.98 while it was 4.49 in 2009. I would be a shade more aggressive shopping Price at this point than either of the hitters mentioned above.

HUNCH

Jeff Francis – After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from labrum surgery, Francis is back in the majors with the Rockies. The history of pitchers with this surgery is not encouraging but I like Francis’ chance to buck those odds and beat his RoS ZiPS projection of 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 60 Ks and a 1.41 WHIP.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

Justin Morneau checks in with an ADP of 20 in the latest rankings from Mock Draft Central. That makes him a mid-to-late second-round pick. However, it also ranks him as the sixth-best first base option for fantasy players. Should a fantasy owner really spend a second-round pick on the sixth-best option at a non-OF, non-P position?

Morneau has a first and a second-place finish in the MVP race in two of the past three years, thanks in large part to big RBI numbers. Those RBI numbers are obviously quite valuable in fantasy, but they have the disadvantage of being relatively unreliable. After having 130 RBIs in 2006, Morneau “slumped” to 111 in 2007.

It is always nice if big RBI men can buttress their fantasy case with consistent production in other categories. One of the big arguments for Ryan Howard is you know he is going to give you HR production. But with Morneau, we see inconsistent production in average and declining HR rates.

In 2006, Morneau had a FB% of 40.6 percent and his HR/FB rate was 16.4 percent. Last year those numbers were 37.6 and 11.2, respectively. After hitting six home runs in April, Morneau hit just 17 in the following five months.

Late in September, Morneau disclosed that he had been playing with a sore knee. It certainly could help explain the declining power production but it was not serious enough for him to miss a single game last year.

However, if you want something to feel optimistic about, Morneau underwent laser eye surgery in November. Perhaps a healthy knee from an off-season of rest and improved vision will allow Morneau to get back to his 34-HR, .321-AVG ways of 2006. Otherwise, you might want to hold off on drafting a bottom-second-tier first baseman with your second-round pick.