Archive for Justin Morneau

On Friday, Adam McFadden wrote a piece in which he recommended nine players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Adam’s work inspired me to do some digging of my own, and I managed to find some more widely unowned players who could give your team a serious boost down the stretch.

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He’s Back!

Drew Smyly (47%) – Although he looked pretty rusty in his first start since May on Sunday, Smyly needs to be owned pretty much across the board. He was dropped in a ton of leagues when he tore his labrum, to the point where he’s available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Dropping him was understandable, as the Rays initially said he was out for the year, only to retract that statement a week later.

I managed to snag him in a 12-team mixer where he had gone unnoticed on the waiver wire. Maybe you can too.

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Mike Podhorzer and Chad Young embarked on a journey–quest to find an offensive expected (x)HR/FB rate.

Based on batted ball distance and angle, you can go to Baseball Heatmaps (BHM) and find expected versus actual homers or verify HR/FB ratios through HR+FB average distance.

Here’s an uber simple descriptive balls-in-play (BIP) expected homer (xHR) formula:

xHR = PA*Contact%*OFFB%*HR/FB. Looking at the outcomes from last year we have the following list first ordered by the most likely regressions:

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Justin Morneau’s place on the Colorado Rockies didn’t make much sense when the deal was announced. It was written about here, by Paul Swydan, and pretty much everywhere else. And Swydan was right, in my opinion: the Rockies did have a better player sitting there in Corey Dickerson (who ended up playing a ton anyways, thanks to injuries). All it would have taken was moving Michael Cuddyer to first to hand Dickerson the right field job. Well, Cuddyer got hurt, along with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki (shocker). And Morneau – his production, anyways – ended up having a place after all, even if the process that got him there wasn’t prudent in its nature.

Morneau has done a ton of good with the plate appearances he’s taken this season, posting a .371 wOBA (120 wRC+), and performing as a top-15 fantasy option at first base in standard leagues. Interestingly enough, though, he can’t really thank a power rebound: his .175 ISO is better than last season’s mark of .152, but is still well below his career average. Morneau’s value has almost solely come from his ability to hit for average, something his new home park undoubtedly helps with.

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Let’s face it, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak these days.  Obviously if you’re in a real shallow league of eight to ten teams, there are always guys worthy of picking up even for just a week or so.  But the deeper your league gets the worse it looks out there and as writers trying to suggest a worthwhile pick-up, it can often be difficult.  So now that I threw that caveat out there, here are two guys that probably aren’t bad enough that they could contribute as a possible fill-in for you while your guy maybe nurses a sore hamstring or is mired in some sort of multi-week slump. Read the rest of this entry »

We see it all too often in fantasy — a former superstar and usual top pick ends up on the decline and still gets drafted or traded for value based solely on name and former reputation.  Maybe some people are anticipating and hoping for a return to the glory years.  Maybe some people are just fans and can’t let go.  Whatever the reason may be, the player’s value is over-inflated on draft day and, more often than not, a complete disappointment by season’s end.  With a top five ranking amongst catchers and an overall ADP of 79.64, Joe Mauer seems like a candidate who fits this description.

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It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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– It’s a shame that Justin Morneau is still dealing with concussion symptoms a year later, isn’t it? Injuries have effectively derailed a career that looked to be so promising after a monster first half of 2010, but them the breaks. At this point, I’m not so sure I’d take a chance on Morneau next season outside of the last round or two of a barely deeper than normal draft. In large leagues (i.e. 20 teams), he’s worth a shot in latter half of the middle of your draft, but he shouldn’t be counted on to start for you week in and week out. Morneau is one of the few players I actually feel sorry for, and I sincerely hope he has a chance to get himself right this offseason.

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“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”

It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer.  Aggravataing?  Yes.  Both the song and the lack of production.  But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?” Read the rest of this entry »

Obviously it depends on the roster size and depth of your league, but it never ceases to amaze me when you see veterans who have produced in the past, yet started off the season slowly, begin to heat up and still get left out on the waiver wire.  Maybe the rosters are far too loaded up or maybe owners are just not paying close enough attention.  Either way, if you’ve got a corner infield spot that’s lagging or just need to balance your team via the utility spot, here are a pair of vets you might want to look up. Read the rest of this entry »

Complaint time, folks!  I got my crying hat on today…

We’ve all heard it a million times before — every year, every site, every pre-draft advice column — fantasy championships are won in the later rounds of your draft.  When you’re getting third round production from your 22nd round pick, your team is destined for success.  What they don’t say is that, while that may be true for the most part, you also need for your first and second round picks to produce accordingly.  If not, then you’re in a little bit of trouble.  The work it takes to recover from a first or even second round bust is plentiful and can be an agonizing task. Read the rest of this entry »