Archive for Junior Guerra

Fantasy owners expect a blown save on occasion, it’s an occupational hazard. However, Pedro Strop did not record an out on Monday night handing out three walks and a hit leading to three earned runs and his second loss. Strop walked more batters in this outing than his previous 10.2 innings this year. Of course, Strop did not benefit from Kyle Ryan freezing during a rundown letting in a precious insurance run for the Marlins. Chalking this up to one of those nights. Strop’s ERA jumped to 5.06 as a result but his 3.88 xFIP and 1.13 WHIP do not suggest a collapse. Especially with Brandon Morrow still sidelined. Brad Brach and Carl Edwards Jr. each recorded their first hold leading up to Strop for the Cubs. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the 2019 RotoGraphs Bullpen Report!

As in past seasons, we will update and publish our team-by-team bullpen grid on a daily basis and provide analysis on relievers to pick up, drop or monitor. I’m unveiling the first iteration of the grid just below, and then we will begin our daily updates beginning next Friday.

With a week to go until Opening Day, Part 2, one-third of the closer situations are still very much in flux. For each of those 10 teams, I have denoted the relievers in the grid as being part of a committee. With the possible exception of the Giants, Diamondbacks and White Sox, a committee is a probable outcome for these teams once the season gets under way.
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We’re back for another week of #2xSP, and I’ve opted not to include Sean Manaea (v. TOR, @TBR) because even through he’s under our 50% regulation (46.2% ESPN), I still don’t feel like he’d be available in that many leagues. If he is in yours, I would pounce all over that, of course.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 8):

17-13 record
4.25 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.2 K/BB
1.45 WHIP
16 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Joe Musgrove – 6.6% ESPN – @KCR (76), v. LAA (92)

Musgrove is expected to come off the disabled list to make this start. If he doesn’t, we’ll default to Jaime Garcia (15.7 percent, v. PHI, v. NYM). If he does, he’s been fairly solid lately — including seven shutout innings against a sturdy O’s offense last time out — with a couple really, really nice matchups this week. The Royals have been dreadful offensively all season, and this is the perfect time to catch the Mike Trout-less Angels, who are also without Cameron Maybin, too.

RHP Dinelson Lamet – 13.8% ESPN – v. ARI (97), v. KCR (76)

We’re gambling here with a guy who has made just two career starts spanning 10 innings, but man have they been good: three earned runs (2.70 ERA), 16-3 K/BB ratio and .211 batting average against. We’d be more skeptical if he hadn’t shut down the Cubs last time out, and these two matchups are pretty solid as well — especially the Royals one. Lamet throws gas (95.4 mph average fastball) and in a very limited sampling, his slider (24.2 percent whiff rate) and changeup (16.1 percent) have been dirty.

RHP Junior Guerra – 17.7% ESPN – v. SF (74), @ARI (97)

Guerra is a layup at this point. He’s somehow still owned in under 20 percent of leagues — of course, the injury plays a huge part in that — but since coming off the disabled list he’s been very good, as he’s at a 1.84 ERA this season with 13 strikeouts and a .151 BAA through 14.2 innings. Like each of the others this week, he’s got one terrific matchup and one that is so-so. He’s basically on the reverse Lamet gamut. We’ll see who handles it better, but my money’s on Guerra, the 32-year-old sophomore. Maybe they’ll both rack up a couple quality starts. Wouldn’t that be nice?

RotoGraph’s Bold Predictions pieces make for an undoubtedly fun series to be a part of. The challenge is finding that sweet spot between bold and insane which, to my understanding, results in about 3 correct predictions out of 10. Last year, my first, my boldness led me off the deep end as faith in such luminaries as Aaron Hicks, Chris Heston, and Chris Bassit went unrewarded. Hard to believe.

But given that our job at RotoGraphs is to give our readers advice as to how they should manage their fantasy teams, it’s only fair that I put my money where my mouth is and base my predictions, to the extent possible, on players I’ve recently endorsed. So, with that said, let’s get bold!

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