Archive for Josh Beckett

Last week I looked at early season velocity gainers and losers. It was noted that the average fastball velocity so far is down league wide from where it was in 2012 but fairly consistent with the average fastball velocity in April 2012. But some commenters suggested that it might be useful to look at the April 2012 velocities of the guys who have seen the biggest gains and losses in velocity this year. The idea is to see if the discrepancy between 2012 velocities and April 2013 velocities is an indication of a change or just evidence that a guy tends to see his velocity dip or rise at the beginning of the year.

To gather a sample, I created a list of guys who threw 150+ innings last year and who had at least 20 innings this April. That yielded me a list of 70 pitchers. To find the significant changes in velocity, I calculated the differences in average fastball velocity between all of 2012 and April 2013. I then calculated the average difference and standard deviation to see who had made the biggest changes. Below are the guys who saw the biggest gains in velocity in April. Read the rest of this entry »

In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

Here’s all we can say that we know for certain about the Dodger rotation right now, as pitchers & catchers around baseball are reporting to camp: Clayton Kershaw is going to start on Opening Day against the Giants, and Zack Greinke is going to follow him. Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

The Boston Red Sox hold a 17-16 record and a -11 run differential entering play Tuesday. To get back into playoff contention, the Sox face a steep climb up baseball’s version of Mount Kilimanjaro, the AL East. With the Yankees and Rays playing superbly, Boston currently has a seven percent chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com and a 15 percent shot according to Baseball Prospectus.

Much attention has been paid to the disappointing start of Josh Beckett. After inking a four-year, $68 million contract extension in early April, Beckett has been bombed for a 7.46 ERA over his first seven starts. What gives?

Let’s start with the obvious: he hasn’t been that bad. While Beckett’s ERA makes him look like he should be mopping up for Billy Ray “Rojo” Johnson, he has been subject to terrible luck on balls put in play and has stranded far fewer base runners than usual. Beckett’s BABIP is .365 (.303 career), and his left on base rate is 56.9 percent (71.5 percent career).

While the 30-year-old (this Saturday) has undoubtedly gotten some bad breaks, he also hasn’t been his usual dominant self, either. In 41 innings, Beckett has 7.46 K/9 (lowest since 2006) and 3.51 BB/9 (highest since ’06). His 4.35 xFIP is a run higher than his 2009 mark, and is also his highest since the righty’s first year in Beantown back in 2006.

Beckett’s 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his marks in recent years. His 82 percent contact rate is just slightly higher than his 80-81 percent figures from 2006-2009. The big change lies in Beckett’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone: his Zone%, in the 52-54 percent range from ’06-09, was consistently above the 48-51 percent MLB average. This year, however, Beckett has located 47.8 percent of his pitches within the zone (the MLB average thus far is 48 percent).

The main culprits for Beckett’s so-so control and slightly elevated contact rate appear to be his two-seam fastball and his curveball. In 2009, he threw his two-seamer for a strike 64.5 percent (57.2 MLB average), with a 10 percent whiff rate (5% MLB average). This year, his two-seamer has been thrown for a strike 58.1 percent, with a 7.5 percent whiff rate. Beckett’s curve got strikes 59.6 percent in ’09 (58% MLB average), with batters whiffing 11.5 percent (11.6% MLB average). In 2010, the hammer’s strike percentage is 54.3, and its whiff percentage is 9.4. Beckett is throwing fewer curves this season (18.8%, compared to 25.5% in 2009), mixing in more cutters and changeups.

It’s true, Beckett hasn’t been great to begin 2010. But I don’t see any reason for outright panic. After years of fantastic pitching, he has gone though a stretch during which he has been merely average. Beckett’s not suddenly getting battered. Rather, he’s having some difficulty placing his two-seam fastball and signature curve and has subsequently issued more free passes than usual. This looks like a good time to pry Beckett from a frustrated owner: ZiPS projects 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 3.37 FIP for the rest of the season, and I see little reason to think he’s more than a mechanical adjustment away from resuming his role as Red Sox co-ace.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re certainly not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, I’m going to cover the pitchers by their location on your team. The first group consists of pitchers that could or should be selected to be fantasy aces in 2010. Let’s take a look.

This is where I drop some caveats. Everyone has their preferences, so order this tier as you will. The first tier is meant to be the no-doubt-about-it group. All of these guys won’t give you the strikeouts of Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but they’ll come within a strikeout or two per nine innings. They won’t all have the miniscule WHIPs of Dan Haren or Roy Halladay, but none of them should break 1.2 in that category. They won’t all be the horse that CC Sabathia is, but they’ve all (so far) shown the ability to put close to 200 innings together. There are no guarantees when it comes to elbows and shoulders, but these guys look like bonafide studs.

The next group ain’t too shabby themselves. The first three only have question marks because they’re young and haven’t been doing this for ages. Despite my worries about Jon Lester’s walk rate in the minors, he hasn’t shown any problems since he made his cancer recovery. Felix Hernandez broke out last year, and just needs to show it again. Justin Verlander seems to have fixed his delivery, but will what broke before break again? The next two guys have question marks are about age and health. Chris Carpenter is a walking question mark, and his ongoing health issues make him overvalued after strong years and undervalued after injured years. In other words, I owned him often last year and may not own him once next year. Instead, I may own Johan Santana often this year, who should be next year’s Carpenter, despite his worrisome declining velocity and strikeout rates. Cliff Lee never had great strikeout rates to begin with and is going to the tougher league, but he may get some support for a higher ranking.

Originally, there was a tier between Lee and Adam Wainwright, but that tier was born more of intuition than anything in the numbers. Wainwright made just as big of a leap forward as King Felix in some ways, why should he be in another tier? Perhaps this imaginary tier has a combination of questions. Wainwright broke out – and has durability questions. Josh Johnson can probably repeat his performance, given his history, but he has definite durability questions. He’s put together just 364 innings total from 2007-2009. Josh Beckett is a favorite of mine, but for some reason he keeps putting up ERAs that are much higher than his FIPs, and maybe that’s just how he rolls. Ubaldo Jimenez induces mad ground balls and strikes out plenty, but his stats are still borderline. Aw, heck, put that tier back in.

The “just off” tier gives you a preview of some nice SP2 values that you could pair with a late SP1 for your best strategic approach. Consider that the number one pitcher on this list is projected by Bill James to put up an 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 261 strikeouts, while the tenth guy may “only” contribute 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 224 strikeouts. That, my friends, is why you wait to draft your starting pitchers.

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).

Josh Beckett was essentially the same pitcher in 2008 that he was in 2007.

His walks, strikeouts, and homers were essentially exactly the same:

Beyond that, the percentage of balls and strikes he threw, as well as the percentage of swinging strikes he induced and pitches that were put in play were exactly the same:

And yet, Beckett’s ERA was 4.03 in 2008 and 3.27 in 2007. What gives?

Well, the first thing we can point to is that Beckett’s BABIP was .327 in 2008. Interestingly, it was above-average in 2007 as well, at .316. However, there’s no reason to think that this is anything except two straight seasons of bad luck – the Red Sox had fantastic defenses during both of these seasons, and Beckett’s career BABIP is .301. There’s no reason to think that Beckett will post a higher-than-usual BABIP in 2009. Still, this doesn’t explain Beckett’s higher ERA in 08 than 07.

Beckett stranded slightly less in 08 (71.3%) than he did in 07 (75.2%), but this wasn’t a huge change. He did allow a higher opponent’s OPS with runners in scoring position in 08 than 07 – in 08 it was .639, while in 07 it was .550.

In fact, with RISP in 2008, Beckett walked hitters at twice the rate that he did in 07. Beckett also allowed more extra base hits with runners in scoring position in 08 than he did in 07. However, he still struck batters out at the same rate in every situation in both years.

Beckett’s biggest problem in 2008 (as well as 2007, although to a lesser extent) was his home ballpark. Beckett posted a 5.65 ERA at home in 2008, compared to a 2.85 ERA on the road. In 2007, his home ERA was 4.17, and his road ERA was 2.18. Indeed, Fenway is a hitter’s park, and Beckett’s struggles at home shouldn’t be ignored by fantasy owners. However, Beckett is still such a good pitcher that it’s unlikely that his ERA will be over 5 at home once again. That said, Beckett has shown to be a much better fantasy bet in games outside of Fenway Park.

In short, Josh Beckett’s fundamental ability to pitch seems not to have changed, at all, from 2007 to 2008. He had approximately the same amount of walks and same amount of strikeouts. He threw the same percentage of balls and induced the same percentage of swinging strikes. He threw his fastball at the same speed, and didn’t alter his repertoire noticeably.

Rather, the main changes were in areas that were out of Beckett’s control. His BABIP was higher in 08; his LOB% was lower in 08; he allowed a great proportion of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. There’s no reason to think that these things are anything but random variation, given that ALL of Beckett’s underlying fundamentals didn’t change.

What does this mean for 2009? Well, assuming Beckett once again pitches as he did in 2007 and 2008, his ERA is very likely to decrease. The Red Sox will once again have an excellent defense, and it’s likely that Beckett’s BABIP will regress, after having been well-above-average during both 2007 and 2008. Beckett’s FIP during the last two years was 3.08 and 3.24, respectively; there’s no reason to think that Beckett cannot post an ERA under 3.50 – and perhaps even under 3.30 – in 2009.

Beckett may struggle in Fenway, and you might consider benching him against tougher opponents at home. However, his home ERA probably won’t be over 5 again, and he’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate outside of Fenway. His low ERA, coupled with over eight strikeouts per nine innings, less than two walks per nine, as well as one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, makes Josh Beckett a true fantasy ace.