The back end of the Arizona bullpen was a mess last year. They tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in the league. J.J. Putz was spotty early in the season as the closer, and Heath Bell struggled in the role as well early in the summer. Brad Ziegler finally brought some stability to the role as he saved 13 games and blew only two after taking over the role in early July. But the D’Backs front office obviously didn’t feel comfortable with Ziegler maintaining the closer job, so they acquired Addison Reed in the offseason.

The bullpen should be much better this year, in part because of the added depth Reed gives them. But they should also be better because of some positive regression for Putz and David Hernandez.

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• Former closers around the league busted down their manager’s door this week demanding they be returned to ninth-inning duties. Well, maybe that was just the John Axford approach — but hey, it worked. On Tuesday, Ron Roenicke signaled for the “mustached one” out of the pen with two down in the ninth. Axford strolled to the bump and induced a Welington Castillo ground out to earn his 19th save of the season. Milwaukee’s manager called on Axford again on Wednesday to seal a 3-2 victory over the Cubs, and he did just that. The right-hander struck out the side while allowing just one single en route to his 20th save on the year. Axford is available in 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
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•J.J. Putz was unavailable for Wednesday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to a stiff neck. The Diamondbacks’ closer received treatment prior to and during the early innings of last evening’s contest, but informed manager Kirk Gibson he wasn’t available when his neck didn’t loosen after trying to play catch in the fourth frame. David Hernandez came on in relief of Ian Kennedy with two outs in the eighth for the four-out save opportunity. Hernandez yielded two hits, but held the Giants scoreless to earn his first save of 2012.

In 24 appearances this season, Hernandez has been inducing swinging strikes at a career high 13.5% clip, which indicates his 12.52 K/9 (4.00 K/BB) looks to be real. In addition to the whiffs, solid ratios (1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) make the Dbacks set-up man more than just a handcuff in deeper leagues.

Although Putz indicated he should be fine for Friday’s contest, Hernandez could get the call should there be any setback with his stiff neck.
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• Chris Perez earned his third save in as many days against the division rival Detroit Tigers, giving him 16 on the young season and tying him for the Major League lead with Baltimore’s Jim Johnson. Due to some of the struggles with his K/BB (1.50) and xFIP (5.01) in 2011, some speculated that Vinnie Pestano could be a candidate to succeed Perez in the ninth inning should he experience the same issues. However, with a slightly improved K/BB (2.57) and xFIP (3.88) through twenty appearances and 16 consecutive handshakes since blowing his first chance of the season, Perez should continue to get the ninth inning call. Don’t lose track of Pestano though, as he will be waiting on the door step with the superior K/BB (4.33) and xFIP (2.64) should Perez lose control.
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To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

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Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!  So I’ll stay in my niche here today and continue with more of the well traveled players.  By my count, we’ve got 27 players officially named the closer on their respective teams and of those guys, 3 of them have been imported from another club.  It looks like one of them is headed towards being a valuable fantasy commodity, but the other two might have a few bumps in the road. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Kevin Frandsen, Anaheim Angels (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

With injuries to Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, Frandsen is getting a shot at regular playing time at third base. He may not have a starting job for long but Frandsen has a nice .352 AVG (thanks to a .373 BABIP) and if you are weak at the position, there is no reason not to ride the hot streak, even if it’s just for two weeks. Depending on your league’s eligibility rules, Frandsen may qualify at any of three infield positions.

J.J. Putz, Chicago White Sox (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Bobby Jenks having pitched on back-to-back nights, the White Sox opted for Putz for the save opportunity over Matt Thornton. While it is unlikely that Putz will get many more save opportunities this year, he has been pitching very well in his setup role. Putz has a 2.19 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and an 11.68 K/9. Even in leagues that do not value holds, those are numbers that would help any staff.

Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

A disappointment last year in his first season in this country, the Cuban defector was enjoying a big season in Triple-A before getting the call to Chicago. Viciedo was batting .290 with 14 HR and 34 RBIs in 238 at-bats for Charlotte. He played mostly first base this year in the minors, perhaps in preparation for replacing Paul Konerko down the road. But he was back at third base for his major league debut. Viciedo may be in a platoon situation, as his first start came against LHP John Lannan after he sat out versus Stephen Strasburg. But there is also the chance he may play full time at the position while Mark Teahen is out with a finger injury. Viciedo is worth a flyer based on his power potential.

When I think of relief pitchers, this Neil Young lyric pops into my head:

It’s better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.

The reign of a top bullpen arm can be transient. One minute, a guy is on top of the world, entering the game to a heavy metal tune and a boisterous crowd reception worthy of a heavyweight champion. The next, he’s posting a 4.65 ERA with the Quebec Capitales (Qu’est-ce qui se passe, Eric Gagne?)

J.J. Putz can well understand. The 6-5 righty was a run-of-the-mill middle reliever with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005. Then, he found an extra gear on his fastball, added a splitter and became a monster out of the M’s pen. Now, after two lost seasons, Putz has inked a one-year, $3M deal with the White Sox with $3.25M in incentives.

Putz posted nearly six wins above replacement between 2006 and 2007, with rates of 11.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. His mid-90’s fastball posted run values of +2.06 per 100 pitches in ’06 and +2.58 in ’07, with his splitter and slider also causing hitters to walk back to the dugout mumbling to themselves. J.J. had 2.11 xFIP in 2006 and a 2.82 mark in 2007.

Unfortunately, Putz’s time as a bullpen rock star ended there. His 2008 season was marred by ribcage and elbow maladies, limiting him to 46.1 IP. Putz still whiffed plenty of batters (10.88 K/9), but his control deserted him (5.44 BB/9). He pounded the strike zone during his glory days (54 InZone% in 2006 and 2007), but J.J. put just 47.5% of his pitches over the plate in ’08 (the MLB average has been around 50-52% over the past three seasons).

Following the season, Seattle swapped Putz to the Mets as part of a three-team, 12-player deal. Rather than re-establishing his value as K-Rod’s set-up man, Putz threw just 29.1 frames before succumbing to surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

He was a shell of his former self in 2009, walking as many batters as he punched out (5.83 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9). Putz’s fastball was down a couple of ticks, and the pitch was plastered (-1.63 runs/100). His contact rate soared, sitting at 82.7% compared to a 76% career average. With Putz a mess on the mound, opposing hitters were content to lay off his stuff (17.9 outside-swing percentage in ’09, compared to about 25% in 2007 and 2008).

Looking at Putz’s Pitch F/X data, there’s an interesting trend in the vertical movement on his splitter. Pitch F/X splits Putz’s off-speed stuff into changeups and splitters, classifying most of them as changeups. I’m going to lump them together here, and call them all splitters. Take a look at the difference in the vertical movement in Putz’s fastball and splitter over the past three years:

Vertical movement on Putz’s fastball and splitter, 2007-2009
2007
Fastball: 10.9 Z
Splitter: 6.4 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 4.5 inches

2008
Fastball: 9.9 Z
Splitter: 4.1 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 5.8 inches

2009
Fastball: 9.8 Z
Splitter: 2.7 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 7.1 inches

There’s now a pronounced difference in vertical movement between Putz’s fastball and splitter. Perhaps there’s a point of diminishing returns with the separation between those two pitches: if there’s too much of a difference, hitters will be able to distinguish between the fastball and splitter and simply lay off those tumbling off-speed pitches they once flailed at.

On the south side, Putz is no better than third in line for save chances, behind incumbent Bobby Jenks (3.63 xFIP in 2009) and set-up man Matt Thornton (2.79 xFIP). Hey, it still beats the Can Am League.

In 2006 and 2007 J.J. Putz was one of the top closers in baseball. In those two years he notched 76 saves and struck out 186 batters in 150 innings while posting WHIPs under 1.000 each season. But injuries dogged him in 2008 as he suffered through a strained oblique and a hyperextended right elbow.

The velocity was there for Putz last year, but his control abandoned him. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, which was a tick higher than it was in 2007, but his BB/9 jumped from 1.63 to 5.44 in 2008. The final month of the season offered hope for Putz, as he posted 13 strikeouts and two walks in eight innings.

Putz gave up a few more line drives last year (20.2 percent versus 17.0 percent in ’07) but his other numbers were right in line with what he did in his outstanding 2007 season. His arm is healthy, his velocity is there (PitchFX had him at 98.5 in his final game of the season) and there is no discernible difference in his skill set other than the walks.

Fantasy players should monitor his control over results in Spring Training. Assuming he shows no Steve Blass tendencies, Putz has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players on Draft Day next season. There are trade rumors surrounding him this off-season, but that has more to do with the value of a top-flight closer on a 101-loss team than any issues regarding his health. Regardless of which team he ends up with, Putz should be one of the top three-to-five closers taken.