Archive for Jesse Chavez

Earlier this offseason, it appeared as if Jose Leclerc might get traded rather than be a part of a rebuilding Rangers squad. Then new manager Chris Woodward was reportedly thinking of using his incumbent closer in a variety of relief roles. Now we know that Leclerc isn’t going anywhere — not to another team and not to another role — as Woodward named him as the team’s closer.

If the Rangers fall out of contention as expected, teams will certainly be calling about Leclerc. Also, while Leclerc was one of the best relievers in the majors last season, he is only two years removed from an astronomical 20.0 percent walk rate. As great as Leclerc was in 2018, it is still worth our while to venture out further into the bullpen to see who might have value in 2019.
Read the rest of this entry »

Entering the Giants’ Tuesday night game against the Rockies, it had been one week since Sam Dyson had recorded his one-and-only save since Hunter Strickland was placed on the DL. Given that he had a couple of shaky outings in the interim and that Bruce Bochy called on Will Smith to pitch the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game with the Padres on Sunday, one had to wonder if Dyson was still the Giants’ primary closer.

Whatever worries Dyson — or his fantasy owners — may have had were somewhat assuaged in Tuesday’s 3-2 win. Dyson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his third save of the season, though there were some nail-biting moments. He gave up a leadoff double to Tom Murphy and issued a one-out walk to pinch hitter Chris Iannetta. Dyson appeared to get out of the inning on a DJ LeMahieu double play ball, but the Rockies challenged the call, which was ultimately upheld.
Read the rest of this entry »

Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to WAR, the 2014 Oakland rotation was the tenth best staff in the league. But without 185 or so combined innings from Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, it’s going to be hard for them to repeat that feat. They brought in a few new faces, but for the most part, they’ll begin the year by filling the holes with internal options. Read the rest of this entry »

Jeff Sullivan pointed out that Stroman discovered Roy Halladay’s Sinker and presented his arsenal change (Fourseam and Cutter swapped for more Sinkers):

Stroman upped his Sinker usage and was comfortable using the pitch despite the count situation. From Sullivan’s post on 2/13:

Stroman was comfortable using the sinker when behind in the count against all hitters. Same when he was ahead in the count. Same when he was even. Same on the first pitch. Same with two strikes. He’s got other pitches, a lot of other pitches, and he still has his four-seamer, too, when he wants to elevate some heat, but the sinker has given Stroman something he didn’t have: a groundball pitch he can locate and use to get quick outs.

Read the rest of this entry »

Through the first two-plus months of the year, Toronto had been fortunate enough to have one of the healthiest rotations in the big leagues. With the exception of one Joel Carreno start in the third game of the season, the quintet of Ricky Romero / Brandon Morrow / Henderson Alvarez / Kyle Drabek / Drew Hutchison had started every Blue Jays game through June 16. Consistency isn’t quite the same as effectiveness, of course, since Alvarez & Drabek were each cruising along with ugly FIP scores over 5.50, but nonetheless, few teams had made it that far into the season with such a low turnover in the rotation.

That situation fell apart completely in the span of four days last week, as Morrow (oblique), Drabek (elbow), and Hutchison (elbow) each hurt themselves and landed on the disabled list. Drabek will have Tommy John surgery and will be out until well into 2013; Hutchison’s fate is yet to be decided but a zipper of his own hasn’t been ruled out. Neither had much fantasy relevance, but the loss of Morrow for a month or more is acute, as he’d evolved into one of the better starters in the game, most recently ranked as the #20 overall starter on the latest Yahoo! leaderboards.

With the trio gone, Toronto suddenly has to fill 60% of their rotation. Let’s look at who’s left standing and who is now in line for opportunity; you might want to take the very young and very old out of the room before continuing, because it’s not pretty…

Read the rest of this entry »

Righty reliever Rafael Soriano, a Type A free agent fresh off a dominant 2009 season, caught the Atlanta Braves off guard when he accepted the club’s offer of arbitration.

Having already ponied up for Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito via free agency, Atlanta didn’t want to spend another $8M or so on the ‘pen.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, the Braves have swapped Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-hander Jesse Chavez.

In Tampa, Soriano becomes a prime candidate for ninth inning duty. His injury history is extensive: Soriano’s 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons were wiped out by elbow surgeries. But in ’09, the soon-to-be 30 year-old turned in one of the better relief performances in the majors.

In 75.2 IP, Soriano punched out a career-high 12.13 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 3.21 BB/9. His K rate placed second among relievers, bested only by Jonathan Broxton’s 13.5 punch outs per nine frames. Soriano’s 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA ranked 9th among ‘pen arms.

Soriano attacks hitters with a wicked low-90’s fastball/low-80’s slider combo. In 2009, Rafael’s heater was worth +1.42 runs per 100 pitches (his run value with the fastball since 2002 is +1.28 per 100 tosses). His slider baffled batters to the rune of +1.39 runs/100 (+1.54 since 2002).

The former Mariner doesn’t dawdle around on the mound: he goes right after the opposition. Soriano located 53.6% of his pitches within the strike zone in ’09, which ranked in the top 15 among relievers. His InZone percentage since 2002 is 54.2. Hitters struggled to do much with those pitches over the plate, as Soriano had the second-lowest percentage of in-zone contact among relievers (Oakland’s Andrew Bailey took home first place).

With the Rays, Soriano’s primary competition for save chances will be southpaw J.P. Howell.

From a scouting standpoint, Howell is the anti-Soriano. The former Royals starter cracks the mid-80’s with his fastball on a good day, and tossed the pitch less than half of the time in 2009.

Rather, Howell mixes in a bunch of low-80’s curveballs and high-70’s changeups. Both of those pitches were superb in 2009 (+1.58 runs/100 for the curve, +3.2 for the change of pace). Whereas Soriano’s high heat gets few ground balls (career 30.8 GB%), J.P. burned worms at a 51.8% clip from 2008-2009.

Despite the finesse repertoire, Howell has whiffed 9.87 per nine innings over the past two years, with 4.15 BB/9. He posted a 3.54 xFIP in 2008 and a 3.47 xFIP in 2009.

Considering Howell’s ability to toss multiple frames, Soriano would appear the be the front-runner for saves in Tampa Bay. Both are well-qualified for the role, however.

As for Chavez, the 26 year-old will be changing teams for the second time this offseason and the third time during his career. The former Rangers prospect was shipped to Pittsburgh on deadline day in 2006 in exchange for Kip Wells. He was traded to Tampa earlier this offseason for 2B Akinori Iwamura.

In three seasons at the AAA level, Chavez punched out 8.2 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.6 per nine. The 6-2 righty posted a 4.49 xFIP with the Bucs in ’09, with rates of 6.28 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

Chavez showed off a pair of quality secondary pitches (+3.16 runs/100 for his high-80’s slider, and +0.89 for a mid-80’s changeup/splitter). His mid-90’s gas, however, was blasted for -0.72 runs/100. The fly ball-centric reliever was plagued by the long ball, surrendering 1.47 HR/9. In Atlanta, Chavez figures to fill a 6th/7th inning role.