Archive for Jay Bruce

The trade deadline produced some playing time winners and losers across the National League. While it’s premature to know how some of these situations will play out, the Reds, Cubs and Phillies in particular already have some interesting developments that are worth paying attention to.

Arizona

It appears that Torey Lovullo has at least two platoons in place, with Jake Lamb and Christian Walker splitting time at first base and Jarrod Dyson and Wilmer Flores sharing a spot in the lineup (with Ketel Marte starting at second base versus righties and in center field versus lefties). Neither of these is a strict platoon, but these are the tendencies that Lovullo has shown over the past week. A third platoon may be developing, as David Peralta has received each of the last five starts in left field against a righty, but Tim Locastro has taken two of the last three against a left-handed starter.
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Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.

I have failed you, dear readers.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.

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Billy Hamilton is fast. We get it. He swiped 103 bases at Low-A Dayton in 2011. In 2012, he stole 155 bases between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola and then kicked in another 10 during a 17-game stint at the Arizona Fall League. Last season, he put another 75 notches in his belt at Triple-A Louisville, and when he was given his cup of coffee in the bigs, he swiped another 13 bases over the team’s final 13 games. Yeah, he’s pretty darn fast. But while he’s bathing in quickness rivaled only by the Flash, the Roman god Mercury and that little kid from The Incredibles, Hamilton may not be the 2014 fantasy goldmine that everybody seems to think. Read the rest of this entry »

Jay Bruce has had a three year stretch of significant consistency. Check out the chart below showing the lack of variance.

The results have been similar, but the way Bruce has gotten there has been a little different. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, the 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to an end. I’ve raised a few flags (hope you did, too!), but now it’s time to go back to my preseason “bold predictions” and put my money where my mouth is (or was?).

Let’s see how I did:

10. Despite injury, Adam Eaton will still steal 40+ bases.
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Back in 2009, Eric Seidman wrote a piece here that looked into when samples become reliable for certain statistics. The piece was based off work done by Pizza Cutter. You can read the piece here for a full explanation of how the conclusions were reached, but below is a list showing how many PAs it takes for a statistic to become reliable. Read the rest of this entry »

While the corners remain the same, the Cincinnati Reds made a big change in center field with a major three-team trade with the Diamondbacks and Indians during the offseason. They gave up a fine, defensive shortstop prospect, but obtained an outstanding 20-20 outfielder to cover center and possibly opened the door a little wider for one of their most-hyped prospects down the road. There’s some interesting flexibility that the team has right now, so let’s take a quick look… Read the rest of this entry »

For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in. Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of each fantasy season, I always like to do what few fantasy sites/writers ever do for their readers.  I like to hold myself accountable.  You need to know whether you are getting sound advice and I need to know where I need to step up my game.  So with that, I like to go back throughout the year, both spring and in-season, and see just how successful I was in offering up advice.    When I saw Mike Podhorzer’s look back at his 20 Bold Predictions, I knew it was time to serve myself up as well.

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Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »