Jason Hammel vs Jeff Niemann
Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann will always be connected. Both came up through the Rays system, are big dudes (6’6” and 6’9”), and were in the running for the fifth starter spot in Tampa last spring. The Rays decided they’d rather have Niemann, and dealt Hammel to the Rockies during the first week of April.
Both Hammel and Niemann had solid ’09 campaigns, but who is the better pick in 2010?
Niemann went 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA, striking out 6.23 batters per nine and walking 2.94 per nine. He posted a 4.53 xFIP, .304 BABIP, and 73.7% LOB%, showing that his numbers weren’t to far off from what we’d expect. Niemann is currently the 56th pitcher being taken, and the 213th player off the board overall. He is being drafted in 96.7% of leagues.
Hammel went 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, striking out 6.78 batters per nine, and walking 2.14 per nine. He posted a 3.81 xFIP, .337 BABIP, and 69.5% LOB%, which could translate into a better line in 2010. In 384 big league innings Hammel has a career BABIP of .331, but that should drop closer to the .300 mark as his career progresses. Hammel is the 99th pitcher off the board, and the 362nd player overall. He is being drafted in a mere 2.9% of leagues.
Why is Niemann being drafted so much higher than Hammel? For one, I would venture a guess that the old stigma behind Coors Field is catching up to Hammel. His numbers are very similar to Niemann’s, although his stuff graded out lower according to our Pitch Value data.
Hammel at 362 is an infinitely better value than Niemann at 213, and I think Hammel may move up some boards as the season draws nearer. Hammel isn’t an ace, but neither is Niemann, and one is being taken in almost every league while one is hardly being picked at all. Take advantage of the value Hammel presents in deeper and NL-only leagues, and keep an eye on him as a possible waiver wire pickup in standard leagues.
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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Love both of these guys, but Hammel’s peripherals really jumped out at me recently. K/9 is solid and Coors Field factor is mitigated further by his 1.49 GB/FB ratio, which was in the top-20 in baseball last year.
Dude’s a sneaky good pick.
yeah I like Hammel as well, though I haven’t actually taken him in a draft yet (Neimnann either). Since nobody is picking Hammel I might as well wait til he starts pitching well and also see how the rest of my staff is coming together.
After looking at the peripherals and his FIP, I traded for Hammel in a dynasty league earlier this offseason where I got Huff and Headley. I’m hoping it pays off, I think Hammel could end up taking a nice jump forward this year.
oops, meant I gave up Headley and Huff
Excellent article, Zach.
Hammel is a guy that I’ve been high on since early last season. He was continuously looked over, around and beyond by everyone due to everything you mentioned above.
In some ways, I believe Hammel’s lack of perceived value coming out of Tampa was due t being compared to all of the talented young arms around him. Is Hammel ever going to be an ace? Absolutely not. But he can post relatively solid #4 and perhaps even #3 numbers — numbers that Niemann will only match and never truly surpass.
Given that beyond the elite players in fantasy baseball, drafts are all about value, Hammel’s value right now is absurdly greater than Niemann’s…
…But your article may change that a little 😉
Niemann’s peripheral stats improved a lot as the season went on (more K’s, fewer BB). If you assume he will pitch like he did in 2009, then Hammel over Niemann might be smart. But I’d take the last 4 months or so of Niemann over Hammel.
Also, part of the reason Niemann might be above Hammel is because he had more publicity as a top prospect and his name is more familiar from being involved in quite a few trade rumors over the years.
This is one of the worst articles ever. Hammel is unrosterable, that’s why he isn’t picked.
Niemann wasn’t perfect but he’s improving and looks a lot better this year. You can bench him vs the Yanks and Rox if you want.
And your basis is what? Three starts? If that’s your basis then everyone should be dumping Lester left and right as Hammel has been performing infinitely better than him. You can’t rely on small sample sizes and the guy has been unlucky in the past, he’ll come back.
On second thought the article isnt’ that bad. But he does pick the wrong guy.
Also it uses mostly external factors to pick Hammel, but his external factors are worse than Niemann’s.
Pick 213 is plenty cheap for a quality pitcher. Though Hammel does look like he’s going to be a good bargain also.
I was a little too eager to criticize. when this article came out I had Niemann and was already planning on keeping him, and I knew I was right and this article was wrong. It’s still a pretty good article though despite picking the wrong horse.
LOL Joe
are we talking of the same Jeff Niemann with .236 Babip & 4.51 XFip/4.44 Siera ?
sabres can only be used for predictive value in fantasy. If someone was better, it doesn’t matter who you think should have been better. External factors are a big part of Nieman’s value and a knock against Hammel, so Hammel has to be a log “better” on paper to actually be better. That’s why Niemann is the best chioce going into 2010.
So now where are we at with these two players going forward into 2011?