Archive for Jason Bartlett

Jack Cust | 2% Owned (Y!) | 0.4% Owned (ESPN)
Be forewarned ESPN owners: Jack Cust is not outfield eligible. But if you’re like me and play more on the Yahoo! side of things, Cust could be a nice addition if things go right for him. We all know by now that Cust is much more valuable in OBP leagues, but if your team can stomach a relatively low batting average, you don’t have much to worry about. Cust has seemingly always had playing time questions surrounding him, but since the Mariners don’t have much in the way of a suitable platoon player, Cust should be an everyday player. Add him if you’re looking for some extra pop and decent RBIs.

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Let’s say you blew all of your money on Albert Pujols, Michael Pineda, and Eric Hosmer, and need a super-cheap shortstop in an ottoneu fangraphs points league.  Or, maybe you’re scrambling because Stephen Drew is dealing with his day-to-day, negative-MRI, weeks-old abdominal injury.  You have $2 to spend, and you need a shortstop with a job.  Here are shortstops who have been going for two bucks in ottoneu points leagues:

Since it’s a FanGraphs Points league, we can get a good idea of value by simply ranking players based on your favorite offensive rate stat, be it wOBA here or at Hardball Times, or TAv at BPro.  I took a dumb average of the three projections just so we could get an overall ranking, but the average itself has no meaning in and of itself.

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Maybe I should just get a job distributing change of address forms at the post office as I always seem to be the Old Faces in New Places guy here.  Not that there’s anything wrong with it. So, like every other position, shortstop has a few guys moving onto to potentially greener pastures and could end up being some decent, low-budget options at fantasy baseball’s thinnest position.  Here’s three that might interest you… Read the rest of this entry »

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.

A month has gone by since we last updated these rankings, but they haven’t changed too much. The position continues to be one of the toughest to fill in fantasy sports, and the bottom half of this list is comprised of some imperfect candidates, to say the least. But every team needs a shortstop, so let’s take a look.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.367 wOBA, .402 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.376 wOBA, .369 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.349 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Jimmy Rollins has to drop out of this tier because of his injury issues. We don’t like to Wally Pipp anyone, but the reality of the situation is that he’s declining physically and his game relies on his athleticism. He’s not all about working the count and getting on base, so if the power and the legs start slipping, it could get a little ugly for Rollins owners.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.469 wOBA, .359 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.295 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .336 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.377 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.356 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

This tier seems pretty uncontroversial. Some may still believe in Rollins, or have given up on Jose Reyes, but this is a solid group of shortstops. They shouldn’t hurt a fantasy team, in other words. Reyes may actually be the lightning rod for discussion, especially placed above a young phenom like Elvis Andrus, but he still retains more power upside than the younger shortstop, and there were some things to like with what Reyes was doing in the second half of May. If he can’t up the walk rate and rediscover his power stroke, though, he’ll move down the list. Andrus might also have some batting average regression coming. Stephen Drew is having a fine season, but with barely-above average power and little speed, he’s just missing those valuable counting stats to move up the list.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.326 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.299 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.290 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.298 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.291 wOBA, .340 ZiPS wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.329 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.288 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.348 wOBA, .300 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Rafael Furcal and Jason Bartlett drop to this tier for different reasons. Furcal rewarded his owners with more time on the DL, and without the stolen bases he begins to look like an empty batting average. Bartlett isn’t even giving the batting average part of that equation, though, and would drop further down on the list if the rest of the list weren’t so craptastic in its own right. Asdrubal Cabrera will be back on the list when he returns in two months from his forearm fracture. Ryan Theriot, however, has to overcome a platoon situation at second base before he’ll be a valuable shortstop again. An honorable mention goes to Alcides Escobar, who has shown little flashes of his potential and has batted in the second hole some this past month, but the fact that he’s losing starts to Craig Counsell can’t be ignored.

Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.

Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.

The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.

Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.

Time to take a look at the shortstops and see if anything changed in the first couple of weeks. I’ll be alternating between the middle infield spots every weekend, just as an fyi. We’ll also use projected wOBA one last week.

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)

Jeter moves into the top group here. This is not because of his batting average – it’s a little BABIP-inflated even for a player with a player with a .360 career BABIP. He moves into the top because he’s showing (so far) that he’s still rejuvenated. The two stolen bases and two home runs in 10 games show that he’s still going to take off on the basepaths and that a 15/20 season looks probable. Add that to all his runs and RBI in that lineup, and his batting average, and you’ve got a top player once again. Rollins could drop out of this group – his injury doesn’t help, and may affect his steals totals this year – but he’s still a top option until he shows that he’s not going to attempt many steals when he returns.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)
7. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
9. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)

There’s a lot of movement in this tier. Reyes moves to the front – and is the best candidate for replacing Rollins in the top tier – because he’s healthy. Two stolen base attempts in the first ten games is not enough to move him higher, but it still counts as a good sign. Once he starts taking off more, and shows a little more life in his bat, Reyes should re-join the top group.

Like most of us predicted, Bartlett is indeed regressing. But if he gets his walk rate back up to historical levels, the hope is still there that he can put a nice batting average and plus steals together at a tough position. Drew moves ahead of him because he looks like he is finally putting together the better parts of his game at one time. Once the line drives re-appear, he could have a career year. Furcal joins the group more because he’s playing every day and has four stolen bases than because of his gaudy batting average. His upside looks a little like Bartlett’s at this point in their respective careers.

Andrus joining the middle group may be premature, but he’s playing so well, and Alexei Ramirez so poorly, that not making this move seems more radical than promoting Andrus. He is hitting .323 and walking 10+% of the time. But on the negative side of the ledger stand his single stolen base and his inflated BABIP (.400), meaning the batting average may come down and he needs to steal more to move up any further. If Bartlett doesn’t pick up his walk rate, and Andrus keeps hitting frozen ropes, we may see a flip-flop there.

The Leftovers:
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
11. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.354 wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
13. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
15. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)

Cabrera and Escobar are not yet capitalizing on the gains they have made in their early careers, so the surprising repeating veteran Scutaro jumps ahead in the rankings. Scu-Scu-Scutaro is still not swinging at anything outside the zone, which bodes well for his newfound patient approach. Aybar moves up because he’s showing a nice walk rate in the early going (13%), but this part of the rankings has been generally underwhelming. Perhaps Alcides Escobar can begin stealing bases so that he can supplant someone here?

Jimmy Rollins is a great baseball player. He has everything we as fans want to see from guys on the diamond. First and foremost, he is extremely talented. But everyone in MLB is talented. What separates Rollins is how he excels in all facets of the game and the drive and determination he brings every day. Rollins may go 0-4 but he can win the game with a highlight-reel defensive play. And his intangibles reached legendary status back in 2007 when he said that the Phillies were the team to beat in the National League East and then went out and delivered on the field, winning the MVP in the process.

Rollins is an electric player in real life. He is just not an elite player in fantasy baseball, however much his owners wish him to be one.

In his MVP season in 2007, Rollins established career highs in 11 of the “Standard” categories on the FanGraphs player page. If you go to the “Advanced” section, he notched eight more personal bests. And this was from a player who had six full seasons in the majors previously. Rollins was 28 in 2007, an age where it was more likely to be a career year rather than a new level of performance.

In 2008, fantasy owners unanimously considered Rollins to be a first-round pick. However, Rollins went on the disabled list for the first time in his career and fell from 162 games played in 2007 to 137 in 2008. The Razzball Point Share System rated Rollins as the 70th-best fantasy player that season.

Many fantasy owners remained unfazed. Once again, Rollins was considered a first-round pick in 2009 carrying an ADP of 9. There were no injury problems for Rollins last year, as he played in 155 games. However, he had a dismal first half of the year, due in large part to a .240 BABIP before the All-Star break. Rollins did much better in the second half (despite a .262 BABIP) but overall he came in at 86th in the Razzball ratings.

Now, despite back-to-back seasons of 7th-8th round value, owners still see Rollins as an elite fantasy player. The latest ADP rankings at MockDraftCentral have him at 21. He has been drafted as early as 13th and no later than 35th in the last 361 qualifying drafts.

One of the many cool features at FanGraphs is the Fans projections. As of this writing, 100 fans have made projections for Rollins and they give him a .273-19-65-102-35 line. This is the most optimistic projection out there, but basically right in line with what the Bill James and CHONE systems have for him. Marcel has a slightly more pessimistic view, largely due to 61 fewer ABs than CHONE and 82 fewer than what the Fans project.

A rough approximation of the average starting fantasy SS in a 12-team league in 2009 gives the following line:

.290-16-76-83-15

So, the fans have Rollins comfortably above average in SB and R, above average in HR and below average in RBIs and AVG among his position peers.

Compare this to Matt Holliday, the player with an ADP of 20, or the player valued right above Rollins. In 2009 starting outfielders had a rough approximation of the following fantasy line: .279-20-76-81-14. Currently, 111 Fans have given Holliday a .313-26-126-107-15 line.

Let’s compare apples to apples and use another shortstop. Derek Jeter has an ADP of 48 and 151 Fans have given him the following line:

.313-14-75-115-22

So, if you wait two-plus rounds and take Jeter, you get 40 more points of AVG, 10 more RBIs and 13 more runs while giving up 5 HR and 13 SB. Maybe the fans are overrating Jeter, so let’s look at another SS. Jason Bartlett has an ADP of 105, so you can wait seven rounds after you draft Rollins and anticipate these numbers, which come from 109 Fans:

.294-9-81-75-26

So, Fans project Bartlett to be available over 80 picks after Rollins and beat him in two fantasy categories while being competitive in SB. Clearly, Rollins is the better player than Bartlett but once you figure in their draft status, the edge narrows considerably, if not disappears altogether.

The past two years, Rollins has not justified his lofty draft status with production on the field. There have been extenuating circumstances (injuries, luck) but the fact is he has been a disappointment. Now age 31, how likely is it that Rollins will exceed Fans’ expectations and return to 2007 levels? Fantasy owners have developed a Pavlovian response to Rollins, giving him an automatic high ADP just at the sound of his name. But before you make him your second-round pick, investigate other options at the position.

Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett entered the 2009 season with a reputation as a good defender with plus speed and little to no home run power. He had the ability to hit for an above average batting average and could leg out some triples due to his plus speed. WAR had always treated him well due to his plus glove over the years but in his first year with the Rays his UZR declined to 2.1 runs above average. His WAR suffered to a below average 1.8 rating for the shortstop position and his .286/.329/.361 line (and well below average .311 wOBA) didn’t help his WAR prospects. He was entering the 2009 season as a 29 year old and people had a good idea what to expect from him.

And then Bartlett manages to hit an insane .320/.389/.490 with 14 home runs in 500 at-bats. Ironically, Bartlett’s glove (-5.5 UZR) hurt his value for the first time in his career but his hitting more than made up for it as he ranked fourth in WAR for MLB shortstops with a 4.8 number. Bartlett hit one home run during all of 2008 and he more than doubled his career home run total with his 2009 showing.

It’s fair to say that no one expected this kind of production from Bartlett entering 2009 just like many were blinded sided by the Ben Zobrist power surge. There’s been some work done to crack the Zobrist code and Bartlett has drawn some comparisons to the Zobrist surge. It’s extremely puzzling that Bartlett went from light hitting shortstop to a .490 slugging shortstop in one season.

Typically the media over speculates players that show up in “good” or “bad” shape during spring training but for what it’s worth Bartlett arrived at Rays sporting a bulkier frame that had 15 pounds added to it over the off season. Perhaps this could have negatively affected his defense as attributed to his -5.5 UZR but he still stole a career high 30 bases in 37 tries (81% success rate).

Upon further examination Bartlett whacked 11 of his 14 home runs away from Tropicana Field in 2009. And he hit much better on the road (.333/.405/.547) than he did at home (.305/.371/.425) but it should be noted that these splits show zero correlation to his 2008 home/road splits where he hit better at home. Bartlett seemed to enjoy the friendly confines of the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 where he slammed three of his fourteen homers.

The nifty Hit Tracker classifies each players home runs into certain bins. Eight of Bartlett’s home runs were labeled as “plenty home run” where the baseball comfortably left the ballpark. Six of his homers were classified as “Just Enoughers” which the Hit Tracker’s website defines as: “The ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.” Perhaps the baseball gods helped a few extra homers clear the fence for Bartlett but he did still hit eight long balls comfortably over the fence.

This could be a classic case of good player development at the big league level where Bartlett made some adjustments and truly did become a new player with an improved skill set. But we will not accept nor should you be expected to accept that for an answer here at Fangraphs!

Enter our favorite toy: The Hardball Times BABIP estimator. This calculator finds an estimated BABIP based upon a players rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. Bartlett had a flukey looking .368 BABIP in 2009 that easily trumps his .330 career mark.

Bartlett’s 2009 line drive percentage was an astounding 26% which would have screamed that his 2009 BABIP wasn’t too out of line as recently as a few years ago before we had the calculator and used the now defunct .120 + LD% formula for expected BABIP. This line drive percentage increase indicates that Bartlett did indeed hit the ball harder in 2009 and the more line drives the better but we still have to consider the margin for error in the data. Defining a line drive can be subjective to different scorers and me and you.

After plugging the proper values into the calculator it gives us an expected BABIP of .337 for Bartlett. This changes a lot and based off of this we would expect Bartlett to have hit .279/.348/.449 which is a bit more normal than his .320/.389/.490 triple-slash in 2009.

I do believe in the human element in baseball and do believe in strong player development and that players do make adjustments as they advance in their careers just like we become better at our professions as we spend more years in a particular field of concentration. If you’ve spent ten years in a certain career I bet you feel that you’re a much better and more knowledgeable worker than you were five years ago. People make adjustments and do improve and Jason Bartlett can too. We must not forget that he is a human being.

In summary the numbers do suggest that Bartlett made some notable improvements to his game. His strong line drive percentage suggests that he’s hitting the ball harder. The Hit Tracker says he popped eight “plenty” home runs that easily sailed over the fence. Just those eight homers spike his slugging percentage much more than the one homer did just one year ago in 2008. And he also set a career high in stolen bases at 30. While Bartlett mashed much better away from home the sample size (200+ at-bats on the road and at home) is not enough to draw a convicting conclusion. Tom Tango would have harsh some words for me if I tried using splits of that size to indicate a change in skill.

Bartlett’s six “just enough” homers as defined by the Hit Tracker suggest that he may have hit a few lucky homers last season. The trusty BABIP calculator believes Bartlett should have hit for a collective .279/.348/.449 in 2009 and I believe that’s a much closer indication of his true skill level even if it isn’t the perfect forecast. And I’m mighty excited to see how you all project Bartlett in our 2010 Fan Projections.

Bartlett will be a good bet for around 25 steals next year and a solid source of batting average (.290-.300) and some power. It’d be safe to project ten home runs from him in 2009. Luckily for fantasy owners they are not responsible for projecting Bartlett’s defense which has slowly declined over the past three seasons according to UZR. UZR no longer sees him in the elite fielding category for shortstops like he was during his Minnesota days.

Jason Bartlett stunned a lot of people in 2009 but while it appears that he made some real adjustments to his game don’t think he’s the .389 wOBA hitter that he was in 2009. Fantasy players may be antsy to pop Bartlett early in your draft next year but don’t be the one to do so. You’ll be better off to select another safer shortstop option.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.

Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.

The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.

The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.

The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).