Archive for Jake Peavy

For a different publication I have recently looked at the hitters that all three of Steamer, ZiPS, and Mike Podhorzer’s projections like more and like less than their current ADP. I like this little exercise as a tool to find value. It’s admittedly not a great way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying breakout players. But it is a good way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying guys who should give you good return on investment, even if the margins aren’t huge.

To do this little exercise, I simply ran the Pod and ZiPS projections through the old Zach Sanders z-score method, and I took the Steamer rankings from the Auction Calculator. I based the rankings on a 12-team mixed league with 25 roster slots (aka the standard ESPN setup). I then compared the rankings to the ESPN, Yahoo, and NFBC composite ADP from FantasyPros and found the 34 guys that all three projection systems like more than their ADP. Below I’ll discuss a few of the pitchers with the biggest gap between the rankings and ADP, and at the end of the post I’ll list all 34. On Wednesday I’ll look at the pitchers that all the rankings like less than their ADP. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Giants may have won the World Series last year, but before they got to the postseason, their rotation was not the strength of the team. In the regular season they ranked mid-pack at 16th in ERA and near the bottom in WAR at 28th. And it was primarily just Madison Bumgarner that was the strength of the team in the postseason as he threw almost a third of all innings for the Giants in the playoffs. Aside from mid-season acquisition Jake Peavy, the Giants have not added anyone to the staff. That should probably concern fans of the defending champs. Of course, three titles in five years helps ease some concerns. But for fantasy owners under-performance the year prior sometimes leads to value on draft day. Read the rest of this entry »

I didn’t spend the time to click through each team in the Steamer projections, but I’m guessing the Red Sox are one of few teams, if not the only team, to have the five guys projected to pitch the most innings each be projected for 2+ WAR. They may not have an elite starter, but their rotation has nice depth.

Although not elite, Jon Lester isn’t a bad first option. He’s going on six straight years of 190+ IP, and he topped 200 IP in five of those six years. From 2008 to 2011 he coupled the workhorse inning totals with a sub-3.50 ERA. But the wheels came off in 2012. He lost velocity, and his ERA ballooned up to 4.82 while his strikeout rate fell to league average. Luck also played a part in the down year as his HR/FB rate was about four points higher than his career average, which contributed to a career low strand rate that was about seven points below his career average.

Not that we should have seen such a blow up coming, but the signs were there in 2011 that Lester was in decline. His strikeout rate had hovered just above 26% in the two years prior to 2011, but it fell to 22.8% that year. That contributed to the highest ERA (3.47) of that four year stretch and the first time in three years that his SIERA was above 3.50. At that point it was probably safe to assume that a slow decline had begun. Given that Lester’s ERA finished at 3.75 last year, maybe we should have expected to land in the 3.60 range in 2012 if all else had been equal. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday I took a look at Paul Goldschmidt’s strange home/road splits. Despite a basic park factor of 105 in Arizona in addition to a 105 factor for home runs for right-handers, Goldschmidt has been noticeably better on the road. And as I was trolling around looking at numbers this week, I came across Joey Votto who has also been quite a bit better on the road despite a very favorable home ballpark.

So I decided to see what other players were seeing some backwards home/road splits. I took all players with 600+ PA both at home and on the road since the beginning of 2011. And I only included players that called the same ballpark home for that entire span. Below is a list of the players whose home wOBA is lower than their road wOBA despite their home park having an above average basic park factor. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s a give a big round of applause to the idiots at the IOC, shall we? The need to draw more attention and revenue to the Olympics led these buffoons to killing the Games’ integrity by removing the amateur status requirements to participate so they could draw in more professional and marketable athletes. While that may have been fine and dandy for the basketball world, as the NBA season ends in June and the summer Olympics don’t start up until late July, it was an epic fail for baseball as players were asked to leave their MLB teams in the middle of the season to go and compete. MLB complied and allowed players to play, but there were no marquee names headed for the games and in the 2004, the United States didn’t even field a team. Read the rest of this entry »

Looking back at the 2012 season, we’re out to attempt to identify players that represent the very best return on the dollar in the respective “award” categories. Recall that this is a best value kind of series, not necessarily the best player.

To that end, we need to award the American League Cy Young to the pitcher who provided you the most production for the least possible cost. And among the staff votes, we have a tie between Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, thus the regrettable title of this piece. And it’s not hard to see why we’re divided.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, at about this time, I like to go back and check in on certain strategies employed on draft day and see how they have served me thus far.  Is it a strategy worth employing again?  What tweaks to it are needed for the next time, if indeed there is a next time?  One strategy in particular, the one that seems to always spur the most discussion, that deserves to be re-visited is the one where I, because of the incredible depth at pitching, draft a beast-like offense first and wait until closer to the middle rounds to pick up my starters.  Nothing but bats to start things off and somewhere around the 10th or 11th round, I grab my first pitcher. Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of each fantasy season, I always like to do what few fantasy sites/writers ever do for their readers.  I like to hold myself accountable.  You need to know whether you are getting sound advice and I need to know where I need to step up my game.  So with that, I like to go back throughout the year, both spring and in-season, and see just how successful I was in offering up advice.    When I saw Mike Podhorzer’s look back at his 20 Bold Predictions, I knew it was time to serve myself up as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

John Danks – After getting beat up in May, Danks was hitting his stride in June until he had to leave his last start of the month with a strained oblique. He came back after the All-Star break and picked up right where he left off. In his last two starts, Danks has allowed just 1 ER in 13 IP and he notched 16 Ks in that span. Because of his horrendous start (0-8, 5.25 ERA), Danks’ overall numbers still look poor. But he is pitching well and should be in your lineup, even with a start against the Yankees.

John Lackey – In his last eight starts, Lackey has alternated between good and bad each start, with four outings with a game score 41 or lower and four with a game score 55 or higher. If this pattern continues, he’s due for a good start his first outing against the Indians and due for a poor one against the Yankees. Regardless of pattern, Lackey has two home starts this week. His ERA in Fenway is 6.54, which should be enough to slide him over to the bench this week.

Jake Peavy – The fact that Peavy is pitching at all is a minor miracle after he suffered a complete tear of the latissimus dorsi muscle from his shoulder. It really should be no surprise that he’s just a shadow of his former self. His fastball velocity is down nearly two mph from his heyday with the Padres and he throws his heater just 51 percent of the time now. In his last five starts, Peavy is 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA. He should not be in your lineup and it’s questionable if he should even be on your roster at this point in time.

Ervin Santana – It’s not unusual for a pitcher to suffer a letdown after pitching a no-hitter but Santana has been pitching great over his last eight starts and he has favorable matchups this week. He has two home starts and up first is the Twins, who have scored the third-fewest away runs in the AL this season. Next up is the Mariners, who have scored the second-fewest road runs in the league. While Santana has not displayed any significant home/road split this year, he has had some trouble with the gopher ball in his home park and he faces two of the bottom three HR teams this week. Keep him active in your lineup.

Javier Vazquez – Last season was a year to forget for Vazquez and 2011 started off in much the same fashion. But in his last eight starts, Vazquez has recorded 4 W, a 2.40 ERA, a 1.233 WHIP and 39 Ks in 48.2 IP. He may only be a six-inning pitcher at this point in his career, but he’s giving the Marlins a chance to win each time out. And the Marlins lead the NL in runs scored since the All-Star break. Get him in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Kershaw, Sabathia, J. Garcia, Carpenter, Jurrjens, Kennedy, Greinke, Cain, Romero, Lewis, Cahill, Chacin, Tomlin, Norris, Luebke, Zambrano, Correia, Maholm, Hughes, Arroyo, Duensing, Fister, Lannan, Pelfrey, L. Hernandez, Kendrick, Wells, Hand, Huff, Cook, Simon.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.800 WHIP. 5 IP, 0 ER
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP, 2 ER
Capuano – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 5.27 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 8 ER
Hammel – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 10.13 ERA, 2.531 WHIP, 4.1 IP, 7 ER
Marquis – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER

After finishing my last post on the potential return to the majors for Brandon Webb, I was inspired to continue down the path of the walking wounded and talk about another AL starting pitcher I  met along the way.  He’s also coming back from major surgery, is on schedule to make his team’s Opening Day roster and a first week start, and for me, remains a high risk candidate in which to invest.  So when it comes to draft day, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk? Read the rest of this entry »