Archive for Jake Odorizzi

Alright so we’re back here for another edition of #2xSP. There aren’t many left of these this year, so maybe it’s time to reflect, or at least look forward. I think a reasonably fair goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00, strikeouts above 8.0 per nine innings and maybe, just maybe sneak that K/BB up over 3.0. It’s fair to say this year has gone markedly better than last: 4.66 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB and 1.41 WHIP, and this year is more consistent with the previous two years in the now four-year (?!?) track record of this column.

Here’s where we stand so far this season:

42-40 record
3.95 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
59 quality starts
Real-world equivalent: roughly Jake Odorizzi?

Here are this week’s recs (with opponents wRC+ in parentheses):

LHP Tyler Anderson – 20.6% ESPN – v. SFG (101), @SDP (87)

With Anderson it flat out boils down to the fact that I love him. I love a guy who can get strikeouts (8.3 K/9), grounders (53.5%) and doesn’t walk many (2.2 BB/9), and that is even more true at Coors Field. He’s posted a 3.43 ERA that checks out peripherally, and I just don’t see that many red flags with him after 15 MLB starts. I’m cautiously optimistic he can handle Coors long-term, as he’s posted a 3.11 ERA at home versus a 4.21 mark on the road, but his opposing batter splits are flipped in that respect. Batters have hit .266/.318/.409 against him at Coors Field, and just .211/.267/.383 on the road. Even if the answer is somewhere in the middle, I think he’s a really solid guy moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite the small sample, the pitching trend continues (as of 4/11):

Strikeouts are up. Offense is down. The MLB ERA as it stands is 3.39! You can read why in the The Hardball Time’s Baseball Annual 2015: Jeff Sullivan looks at whether or not sabermetrics have tipped the balance of power toward pitching and defense — it has. PITCHf/x evaluation is one major reason.

More and more, pitchers know what works within their own repertoires, and we can then tell some “reperstories” based on their pitch characteristics (movement and velocity) and outcomes (swinging-strike and groundball induction).

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This past spring, Jake Odorizzi had an opportunity, but not much in the way of expectations from fantasy baseball players. He hadn’t yet been exceptional at anything. There had existed a decent chance that he would eventually lose his rotation spot. For the first couple of months of the season, he struggled in each outing after his first time through the opposition’s lineup. Rotisserie owners might even consider his 76^th-place finish in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for starting pitchers a bit of a coup. According to the list, he earned a buck – on the nose. How exciting.

But Odorizzi also did something interesting: strike people out more frequently. He finished with a 4.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but the 174 K’s (24.2 K%) in 168 innings were quite nice. They lowered the right-hander’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, naturally, to more eye-catching figures and raised the level of interest of the fantasy population. How great should that interest be in 2015?

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I spend an inordinate amount of time playing with splits. It’s hard to come up with two new topics to write about each week, so I export a lot of data to Excel and click and sort around until I find something interesting. During the relatively boring late slate of football games yesterday afternoon, I was looking at ball in play data.

It occurred to me that there should be a pretty strong correlation between ERA on balls in play and OPS allowed on balls in play (there is). It then occurred to me that guys who have a relative ERA that’s much lower than their relative OPS might be getting a little lucky. When I say relative, I just calculated each pitcher’s z-score for both statistics, which were adjusted for number of batters faced since they are rate stats. Here are those potentially lucky pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday I took a look at the pitchers who have generated the most weak contact this year. Today I want to take a look at the other side of the coin and examine the guys getting hit the hardest. Let me start by saying I haven’t updated the data since I calculated it last Tuesday. Calculating the relevant data takes a whole lot of time, and I doubt it’s changed all that much after one turn through the rotation.

The reason the data takes so long to calculate is because I’m calculating sOPS+ for batted balls. You could find each pitcher’s sOPS+ on their b-ref page, but that takes walks into consideration, and walks obviously have nothing to do with batted ball quality. I have taken each pitcher’s sOPS+ for each specific batted ball type, factored in how often a pitcher generates each batted ball type and calculated their sOPS+ just on balls that are put into play.

If you’re unfamiliar with sOPS+, it is just the OPS allowed by each pitcher relative to league average. It’s similar to wRC+ or ERA-. In this case, numbers below 100 are better than average while those above 100 are worse.

The idea is that this is supposed to tell us more about the quality of the hits a pitcher is giving up. In this way the stat is much more relevant than something like BABIP because BABIP gives all hits equal weight. I like this stat for the same reason Michael Salfino likes ISO allowed. BABIP includes singles, which are the most common outcome and doesn’t even consider home runs. But sOPS+ considers all hit types and weights them. This means sOPS+ is much more likely to tell us if a pitcher has been ‘lucky’ than BABIP is. If you see a pitcher whose ERA is much lower than ERA estimators, sOPS+ will give you a much better indication of whether the pitcher is due to regress than BABIP will.

That said, here are the qualified starters with the worst sOPS+ so far this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.

Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.

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If there’s less than two weeks to go and you’re noticing you have some catching up to do in innings pitched, you best get busy. I know in two of my high-payout standard roto leagues, there are four points separated by two wins, and at least a couple points to be had in strikeouts. As much as I hate the win category, I know I’m in win-chasing mode, and to that end, I’m looking at the most favorable matchups I can find.

There are a good number of decent options on the waiver wire as you head into the weekend, but I’m going to make a few recommendations based almost exclusively off of the fact that some starters are facing lineups that have been struggling to score runs. After all, if they don’t score, you’re in darn fine shape.

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Streaming pitchers here at the end of the season can often be a treacherous affair.  You scout the pitcher, you check the match-ups, you pore over the data and then you bite your lip, close your eyes and pray that you didn’t make a mistake.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes…it rains.  But the bottom line is that the risk involved is usually pretty high because, well, if these guys that you’re sifting through were really that good, they wouldn’t be sitting out on your waiver wire here in mid-September.  So why not tap into some new blood?  Cast aside the tired, lower-tiered starters with their low-5.00 ERA and grab yourself something young; something fresh and exciting.  Get yourself some Jake Odorizzi. Read the rest of this entry »

Whether you like it or not, it’s time again for me to throw a tantrum reminiscent of a nine-year old sore loser, stomp my feet, and threaten to take my ball home as the real baseball world, once again, ignores my fantasy needs this season. It is the savvy fantasy player that does the necessary research and scouting to put together a strong list of potential September call-ups to supplement their fantasy roster in an effort to either stave off challengers for first place or to make a strong late-season push for a championship run. You not only look for talent but opportunity as well and assuming it’s the MLB bottom-feeders that will likely turn to their youth late in the year, you select a strong group of young up-and-comers. But apparently an organization’s desire to win a minor-league championship trumps their desire to see their youth face big-league competition and now my bench is littered with promising names that may never see any action at the major league level this year, thus rendering my list of September stashes useless to me in a fight for a title. Read the rest of this entry »