Rankings Update: Second Base
This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!
The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.
The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.
Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.
The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.
Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
The best ‘real life’ second baseman is also Chase Utley.
of course I agree with you. I thought I had young American Leaguer in there, and of course Kinsler should be in the convo, but, you know… East Coast bias and all.
Thanks for the link-love, Eno!
Hope to catch up on Monday…
What do you recommend doing with Beckham? I drafted him pretty high in a 10 team mixed league. There are 5 OF spots so it’s a tad deeper than a normal 10 team league. Beckham is kililng me right now and Freese is available.
Well, Becks still plays another position on top of Freese, and should offer double-digit steals, so his upside is higher. I guess it might be borderline in a ten-teamer, but I’m holding on to him where I have him.
If Kinsler’s steals take a major hit because of his ankle what does that do to his value? Would it be enough to knock him down a tier?
I’m not sure a whole tier. He’s hit more homers and stolen more bases than Cano and Pedroia ever have.
I’d put Juan Uribe with the Middling Veterans; he’s swinging a real hot bat right now, he’ll be decent when he returns to Earth (though that may earn a demotion to the Leftovers/Upside), and he leads the Giants with 18 RBI, not to mention a .280 average and three dingers. Pretty much everything he hits is a line drive. I get that he’s also got 3B and SS eligibility, so he’s probably more valuable at short, but he can be played at 2B and I’d probably take him over Stewart, Figgins, or Hill.
You sir are crazy.
Yeah… maybe he should be on the bottom of the list, but I’m not taking a guy that has hit lower than .250 in four full seasons, has a .257 career average, and only has power going for him. I mean, I roster Uribe in one of my 15-teamers, but I’m not that happy about it.
Really surprised you have Kinsler ahead of Cano and Pedroia. Kinsler is injury-prone (as we’ve seen already this year) and the other two have been hitting the ball like crazy. Cano is on fire and Pedroia is the poster boy for consistency.
I’m sticking with this as a long-term thing. Kinsler has hit 30 jacks before, the other two haven’t. He looks fine now, stole a base. There’s still a definite chance he betters their counting stats.
if we’re talking about going forward, perhaps kinsler has already had his injury this year? he produces more per plate appearance than cano or pedroia.
You gotta show McGehee some love! That guy had a lot of haters entering the season but has been Mr. Clutch for a Brew Crew offense that needs a legit hitter in the 5 hole. HE gets plenty of ducks on the pond every time he steps up to the plate with Weeks, Braun, Fielder ahead of him , and his 23 RBIs (more than Utley, Uggla, Stewart, etc) should hold up.
Plus, doesnt he just look like a baseballer?
GT is completely right. It seems that he McGehee is less valuable here b/c of lack of SBs since he has never stolen a base in 154 career games. McGehee has been consistent hitting 300 and has a very healthy OBP. Not to mention he has yet to strike out in the month of May. And update, now 28 RBIs.
I cant resist: UPDATE 30 RBIs
Eno-
Thanks for the shout out, but I do want to add, before I look like a complete idiot, my interest in Getz is the SBs. Almost all of the elite base-stealers are OFers, and when guys like JD Drew are FAs then I’d like to “exchange” the Rajai Davis of the world for Getz so I can insert JD Drew, as opposed to having Davis and some scrub like Jose Lopez in my lineup.
Any thoughts on Eric Young and Sterling Castro? Can they acquire meaningful playing time and produce useful stats?
Young should be listed in the upside tier but Castro won’t be 2B eligible.
Mike Aviles may become 2B eligible. If you’re weak there, and prospecting, you might pick him up in advance.
Chase Utley really needs to be his own Tier…
And his own wing of the Hall of Fame.
So for overall performance with an emphasis on SBs, you would choose Getz over Pennington?
Figgins is killing me. *Killing* me!
I remember a mere couple months ago when I pointed out that it was absurd that Robinson Cano was in the third tier, and someone defended that placement. Now, he’s been the best 2b to date.