Earlier this week, I suggested some names to buy and sell at third base and today I’ll turn my attention to the bump. There are actually a lot of pitchers who occupy my “sell” list, but a couple names jump out as prime candidates that you might want to jettison before they turn into pumpkins.
Since we’re past the point in the season where most pitchers have faced enough batters of each handedness for us to give some weight to their strikeout and walk rates, my plan was to take a look at pitchers who struggled against hitters of the opposite handedness last year to see if any had made any improvements so far this year. But in that pursuit I got completely sidetracked when I found a couple of guys who surprisingly had a reverse split in K-BB%. Read the rest of this entry »
My bold predictions article from last year was summarily found to be not bold. The very first commenter said it wasn’t bold and 63 people gave that comment a thumbs up. Another commenter sarcastically chided me saying “You mean Rickie Weeks won’t have (a) career worst season again?” As it turns out, Weeks did have his career worst full season according to wRC+. Not sure if that makes me or the commenter dumb. Probably both.
What I did in last year’s bold predictions was take guys from each position that weren’t being drafted as starters who I thought would be starters. Only three of my ten predictions came true, which is the same batting average Eno thinks is normal for these bold predictions articles. Of course that could just mean that I’m so bad at this that I couldn’t get more than 3/10 right with such obvious calls.
But I’m getting back on the horse this year with a slightly different saddle. The mistake I made last year was discussing players I had ranked as starters in my preseason ranks. This year I’ll be discussing guys that I have ranked just outside starter territory that I think could end up beating my projection and ranking. This means that all players discussed will have an ADP that is, on average, lower than that of the players I discussed last year (all ADP from ESPN). I guess technically that makes the predictions more bold.
If you still don’t think the predictions are bold enough, sorry. My real goal here is to simply identify some guys around the diamond that I think are undervalued in drafts. The ‘bold’ in the title is there on mandate from the higher-ups. If it was up to me, this post would be titled something like ‘Undervalued Players at Each Position.’ If you happen to think some or all of the predictions are actually bold, that’s all the better. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s no secret that Petco Park is a pitcher’s park. But for the sake of putting a face with a name, or rather some numbers with a narrative, I’ll point out that according to our basic park factors Petco was tied for the second most pitcher-friendly park last year. And prior to last year Petco had the lowest basic park factor in the league for nine straight seasons after opening in 2004.
Last summer, Bradley Woodrum discussed the changes made to Petco prior to the 2013 season and how they are affecting offense in the park. Offense is on the rise to some degree and that’s consistent with Petco not being the most pitcher-friendly park in the league last year for the first time in its existence. But it’s hard to say exactly how much the dimensions are bolstering offensive production. What we can say with some certainty is that even though it may not be the most pitcher-friendly park, it’s still safely pitcher-friendly.
Because of the nature of the park, pitchers for the Padres are always interesting to fantasy owners. So who is in line to potentially get the Petco bump this year? Below is a chart showing the five San Diego starters projected to throw the most innings along with their Steamer projections. Read the rest of this entry »
The San Diego Padres have acquired starting pitcher Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for reliever Joe Thatcher, relief prospect Matt Stites, and a compensation pick in next year’s draft.
I wasn’t a giant fan of Ian Kennedy coming into 2013. Kennedy the pitcher, that is, not the person — after all, he might be as charming as the Dos Equis guy for all I know. But Ian Kennedy kind of registered on my radar as a respectable fourth, maybe fifth starter in a pretty good rotation. He ought to give you a decent ERA, acceptable WHIP, and perhaps a strikeout rate that flirts with about 22%.
The allure of Kennedy’s 2011 season was what likely drove his ADP up into the 10th and 11th rounds, well before the likes of Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Lance Lynn, and a host of other cherry-picked examples of pitchers who have been far more useful. Indeed, Kennedy’s 21-4 season in 2011 came with nearly 200 strikeouts, 2.88 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. The predictors didn’t scream fluke, but perhaps the 3.22 FIP was a whisper that he was getting a touch lucky.
Sticking with Zach Sanders’ Starting Pitcher End of Season Rankings and Diamondbacks pitchers who disappointed me during the 2012 season, we scroll on down the number 45 on the list, Ian Kennedy. Coming into the season, there figured to be be a certain degree of regression from his absolutely outstanding 2011 season, but while I was looking for a slight stumble backwards, Kennedy looked like he got shoved so hard in the chest that he fell all the way back to 2010. Just one year removed from Cy Young contention, Kennedy looks like he’s right back where he started. Read the rest of this entry »
Continuing our analysis of the RotoGraphs Reader Mock Draft, here’s a look at Rounds 5 through 8… Read the rest of this entry »
Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft. I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces. While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season. I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »
For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching. You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two. With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters. In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »