Archive for Ian Kennedy

We’ve seen the move enough over the last two years that the math is clear: Struggling young fly-ball pitcher from a tough American League division + trade to Arizona = Fantasy relevance! So will that math magic work for Armando Galarraga?

Not so fast. The first difference is immediately obvious upon looking at the player cards of the respective trio. Galarraga has a career 5.7 strikeout rate with a peak of 6.35 in 2008 – Dan Hudson showed a 6.75 K/9 in Chicago and was consistently over one per inning in the minor league leagues, and Ian Kennedy had a 6.49 K/9 in New York and also had a strikeout rate over one per inning in the minors.

But, say you believe in Galarraga’s peak strikeout rate despite its precipitous drop (to 4.61 K/9 last year), there’s still the matter of his ground-ball rate. All of the three are fly-ballers (not fly ballers), but here Galarraga (40.4% ground balls career) comes out (incredibly) ahead of the pack when compared to Hudson (34.2% ground balls career) and Kennedy (36.9% ground balls career). So… he strikes out a few less but gets a few more grounders, maybe he should be included in the trio as interesting late-round picks in upcoming drafts?

Thta’s still a negative, Ghostrider. It’s a matter of age and proximity to their minor league records. When Hudson made the leap to Arizona, he’d only accrued 34 1/3 major-league innings and 23 years on this earth – Kennedy 59 2/3 and 25 respectively. Galarraga is 28 years old and has pitched 475 1/3 major league innings. He’s no lapsed prospect that hasn’t gotten the chance to perform – he’s a journeyman just trying to hang on.

The bounce back won’t look like Hudson’s or Kennedy’s for Galarraga, who has pitched to a 5.17 FIP over his career, but could it look okay anyway? Take his career strikeout rate (5.7), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.62) and ground-ball rate (40.4%) and look for comparative qualified starters in the National League last year, and it’s not pretty. Being as good as Randy Wolf (5.93 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, 39.4% GB) and his 4.17 ERA (4.85 FIP) would be a success story for Galarraga. Other close comps are Dave Bush (5.52 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 39.5% GB, 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP) and Rodrigo Lopez (5.22 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 37.6% GB, 5.00 ERA, 5.21 FIP) so he’s not in happy territory.

Galarraga may take the fifth starter role in Arizona next year, and he may pitch better than his terrible 2010 season (imPerfect game notwithstanding), and he may even have some superficial similarities to other AL starters that have made the same move recently – all of these things may be true, but he’s still probably not a good pick in your next draft.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.

A few days ago, I highlighted some former top position prospects who once graced magazine covers and had fantasy players’ hearts aflutter, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, let’s do the same with starting pitchers. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Starting Rotation.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

CHONE: 151 IP, 7.33 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 4.27 FIP

When a much-discussed hurler gets the big league call and chucks a no-hitter in his second start, expectations can become so enormous that anything short of that pitcher becoming a Roger Clemens/Nolan Ryan love child seems like a let-down.

Buchholz, who turned 25 last August, has logged 190.2 innings in the majors from 2007-2009, with a 4.91 ERA. That screams mediocrity. But his peripherals are more promising. The 6-3 right-hander has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings, while posting a 49.9 percent groundball rate. His control hasn’t been precise (4.11 BB/9), but Buchholz has a more palatable 4.13 expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP). Buchholz has performed like an above-average starter, but a .317 BABIP and a near 14 percent home run per fly ball rate have obscured his quality work.

Known for his diverse arsenal of pitches, Buchholz has succeeded in the majors with his slider (+2.30 runs per 100 pitches), curveball (+0.52) and changeup (+0.42). His fastball, on the other hand, has been more than a run below average (-1.04).

However, his heater velocity did perk up in 2009. In 2008, Buchholz threw his fastball for a strike 61.8 percent of the time. In ‘09, his fastball was thrown for a strike 65.9 percent. His ceiling is still wicked high.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

CHONE: 158 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 4.66 FIP

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft won’t turn 24 until May, but his odyssey in pro ball has taken him from uber-prospect to perceived bust to promising, if unpolished starter. Bailey was beaten badly during his first two stints in the big leagues (5.59 xFIP in 2007 and a 5.16 xFIP in 2008). But in 2009, he turned in a quality season at the Triple-A level (89.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.86 FIP) and pitched at a league-average level (4.58 xFIP) in the majors.

Bailey has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-80’s slider/cutter, high-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup, but he chooses to fire his fastball well over 70 percent of the time. Like Buchholz, Bailey got some extra oomph on his fastball this past year, sitting 94-95 MPH instead of 91-92 MPH like in ’07 and ’08. He’s basically an average starter right now, with the upside for more than that if he makes gains with his control and secondary stuff.

Sean Gallagher, San Diego Padres

CHONE: 102 IP, 8.12 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.91 FIP

A former Cub and Athletic picked up by the Padres last July, Gallagher scarcely pitched in 2009 after suffering a left knee injury. In 2008, though, the right-hander used his low-90’s gas, hard slider and slow curve to punch out 8.04 batters per nine innings in 115.1 IP with Chicago and Oakland. He does lose the strike zone often (career 4.93 BB/9), and lets hitters loft the ball frequently (35.8 GB%).

Gallagher will need to stop being so generous with the walks, but Petco Park should help mitigate those extreme fly ball proclivities, should they persist (his near-50 percent groundball rate in the minors suggests that his GB/FB split might not be that pronounced moving forward).

The 24 year-old is not currently penciled in to San Diego’s rotation. However, with Chris Young’s recent ailments, concerns over Mat Latos‘ workload and the checkered health history of Tim Stauffer, the out-of-options Gallagher figures to get a shot at some point.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Bill James (CHONE’s projection for Morrow comes in relief): 135 IP, 8.73 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.34 FIP

Swapped from the Mariners to the Jays over the winter, Morrow has seen his development derailed by injuries, being shoved into the major league bullpen and indecision over his role: starter or closer, that is the question.

Toronto has spared us from any more rumination: Morrow, 25, will be a starter with his new organization. His ability to miss bats is unquestioned, but the former Cal star has to hone his control and prove durable (forearm and shoulder injuries have plagued him) if he hopes to become more than a hard-throwing curiosity.

Don’t be surprised if there are bumps along the way. Because Seattle’s former regime allowed Morrow to throw reallyrealyreally hard in the general direction of home plate out of the ‘pen, instead of building stamina and improving his breaking stuff as a minor league starter, the 6-3 righty remains green as grass.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

CHONE: 94 IP, 8.33 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 4.20 FIP

A USC Trojan who terrorized minor league batters (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), Kennedy scuffled in limited time with the Yankees (5.84 xFIP in 59.2 IP) and was sent to Arizona as part of a three-team deal during the offseason. Kennedy’s ’09 season was quashed by surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit.

A 6-0, 195 pound righty who relies far more on command than sizzling stuff, Kennedy sits 89-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a slider, curve and changeup. His Major League Equivalencies in 2007 (4.34 FIP) and 2008 (3.34 FIP) suggest that he could be a nifty back-end starter.

But, Kennedy faces a daunting task with the D-Backs. He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 39.7 GB% in the minors) headed to a park that, according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, has increased run production by 15 percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three years.

The Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks have just finished up a deal that involves Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.

Yankees Receive: Granderson
Tigers Receive: Scherzer, A. Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke
D’Backs Receive: E. Jackson, Kennedy

Without arguing about who won the deal, let’s analyze how this may change each player’s fantasy value.

Granderson – Grandy moves to a park that is heaven for left handed power hitters. Granderson hit 30 jacks while playing in Detroit, so I am salivating at the chances Grandy will have for dingers in New Yankee Stadium. It is unclear where Grandy fits in the Yankees lineup, but he will likely hit second behind Derek Jeter. While Johnny Damon occupied this spot last year, it is going to take a very cheap deal for him to return to New York next year.

Scherzer – Moving to the AL won’t help Scherzer, nor will the defense behind him. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, and should perform just fine in the AL. The possibility of more run support and added wins will be an added plus for Scherzer going into drafts.

A. Jackson – I doubt he starts the year in the bigs, but I think he ends the year starting for the Tigers. This is what would have likely happened in New York, so Jackson’s value doesn’t take much of a hit.

Schlereth – He has a great strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate. His ERA will certainly be lower next year due to his BABIP and LOB%. Depending on what happens with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, Schlereth could compete for the closers role.

Coke – Coke will likely compete with Schlereth for the closers job, but all of this is just speculation because we aren’t sure what the Tigers plan to do with their bullpen during the remainder of the offseason.

E. Jackson – Jackson’s 13 wins last year now seem to be hard to reach in 2010. Jackson’s new defense is good, but not spectacular. Jackson will continue to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but this will knock him down a few spots.

Kennedy – It’s unclear where he will start the year. The D’Backs seem to be having an option competition for a rotation spot or two, but don’t be surprised to see Kennedy spend another half-season in the minors waiting for an injury to occur.

Out of all the players dealt, Granderson’s value will rise the most. He looked to be a sleeper candidate going into the year, but this trade will bring him back into the limelight and raise his value to what it should have been in the first place. Those of you who used a keeper spot on Grandy, I salute you.

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Scott Mathieson, RHP, Philadelphia
Following in the tradition of talented, but injury-prone Canadian pitchers, this right-hander is back on track after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery (’06, ’08). The top team in the National League is certainly hoping this one will take. Mathieson posted a 0.84 ERA in 32.1 innings – over three minor-league levels – this past year while working out of the bullpen (He was previously a starter). The 25 year old allowed just 17 hits and he showed reasonable control despite his layoff in ’08 and he struck out 34 batters. Mathieson made 13 appearances in double-A and posted a 3.20 FIP, while allowing a batting-average-against of just .155. So far in the AFL, he has yet to allow a run in five innings (four appearances). If his health sticks, Mathieson could be helping out in the bullpen in Philly by mid-to-late 2010.

Danny Gutierrez, RHP, Texas
Obtained late in the season from Kansas City after wearing out his welcome in the organization (health, attitude), Gutierrez has been impressive and an organization can never have enough pitching depth. The right-hander made just nine appearances in the regular season but he’s made three already in the AFL (including two starts). In 8.2 innings, Gutierrez has allowed five hits, five walks and seven Ks. In 2008 in low-A ball, the right-hander showed a solid ground-ball rate while also posting a strikeout rate of 10.40 K/9 in 90 low-A innings. He’s a sleeper worth keeping an eye on, although he likely won’t surface in Texas until 2011.

Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York (AL)
No longer a rookie, thanks to a total of 59.2 MLB innings over three seasons, Kennedy is looking to finally establish himself as a big-league pitchers. After missing a good portion of ’09 due to injury, he’s making up for lost time in the AFL. In three starts, Kennedy has allowed 10 hits and just one walk in 11.1 innings of work. He’s also struck out 13 batters, but he remains a fly-ball pitcher, which is dangerous for a hurler with average-at-best velocity on his fastball. Kennedy does not have a huge ceiling but he does have a track record of success in the minors and he has exceptional control. A trade out of New York this off-season will probably be the best thing for his career, but the club may not want to sell low on him. If he does end up in the National League, though, he could thrive.

Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York (NL)
Things have not gone so well for Mejia in the AFL. After making 10 double-A starts as a 19-year-old pitcher in ’09, the right-hander has struggled in fall ball. Mejia has a 10.50 ERA and has allowed 10 hits and seven walks in 6.0 innings (three starts). The Dominican native did recover in his third start to allow just one run in three innings and he showed improved command. He is definitely talented and there is no reason to rush him to New York so he’ll likely open 2010 in double-A and will probably surface in Majors in 2011, if all goes well. Don’t worry… he’s just a young pitcher going through growing pains.

It’s a long season so it’s obviously too early to get worried in New York, but it’s not easy being a Yankee and expectations are much higher than in some organizations around Major League Baseball. As a result, you know that unestablished players like third baseman Cody Ransom (.083/.153/.125) and center-fielder Brett Gardner (.227/.261/.273) could spend a significant amount of time on the hot seat whenever the club struggles – like it is now.

The fourth-place Yankees have a number of interesting names currently playing just one stop away from the Major Leagues in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Ransom will eventually be replaced by the rehabbing third-base incumbent Alex Rodriguez. However, if the club gets tired of the sub-.200 average that Ransom is providing in the meantime, Eric Duncan could receive a look. The former No. 1 draft pick is currently hitting .286/.412/.286 in 14 at-bats in Triple-A, although he’s no longer considered a ‘first-round talent.’ Angel Berroa, who received some consideration for the roster spot that Ransom currently owns, is hitting .318 in 22 at-bats.

Gardner is currently struggling a bit in the Big Apple, but top prospect Austin Jackson – who just happens to play center field – is smoking hot in Triple-A. The 22-year-old phenom is currently hitting .500/.538/.591 with six RBI in five games. If we’re nitpicking for negatives, he has just one extra base hit (a triple).

First baseman Mark Teixeira has been limited to just 16 at-bats, thanks to a bad wrist. However, Nick Swisher has stepped up and is currently hitting .450/.542/1.150 in 20 at-bats. He’s doing it all, too. Swisher is evening taking to the mound and out-performing Chien-Ming Wang! If the Yankees need more pop at first base, especially if the Teixeira injury lingers, the club can dip down to Triple-A where Juan Miranda is hitting a tidy .417/.462/.750 with 11 RBI in five games.

On the pitching side, starter Ian Kennedy struck out 11 batters and walked no one in his only start. Reliever David Robertson has appeared in two games and has yet to allow a run in five innings. He’s allowed two hits, one walk and has struck out 10. Mark Melancon has struck out seven batters in 3.2 innings and has yet to allow a hit or a walk.