Archive for Houston Astros

So far in 2018, the hot stove has been more of a cool counter, leading to a dearth of enjoyable “change of scenery” fantasy baseball topics. Thankfully, there’s still plenty of fantasy fun to be had, because the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) has draft data ready to roll. I’m going position by position through this slow offseason, picking out players with an average draft position (ADP) significantly higher or lower than I expected.

Today, it’s time to discuss the shortstop position — namely Chris Taylor and Marwin Gonzalez. Neither guy is a full-time shortstop in real life, but in fantasy that’s where the vast majority of owners will play them in 2018. (The player pool I used included all players with at least 10 starts at short in 2017.) One of the main commonalities between Gonzalez and Taylor is that they’re both eligible to play several positions (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF for Marwin, 2B/SS/OF for Taylor).

Both players also experienced shocking breakouts in 2017, so it’s probably a good idea to see where they stand heading into the 2018 fantasy season, correct? I sure thought so.

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As a Marwin Gonzalez owner, I’ve considered writing about him several times over the season’s first two months. I took a $1 flier on him in a 4×4 ottoneu Classic league this offseason, and at the time my expectations could be roughly summarized as “There’s worse ways to fill out a roster.” In most fantasy formats, Marwin qualifies at every position except pitcher and catcher, and he was coming off a season that saw him produce 25 HR+SB. Like I said, there’s worse ways to spend a dollar on a bench player.

Every time I’ve thought previously about writing up Marwin this year, I got hung up on the fact that I had absolutely no idea if his breakout was for real, or if it was just a fluky hot start. Actually, if I’m being completely honest, the whole reason I decided to write this piece you’re currently reading is because I still don’t know. In the following paragraphs, I invite you to join me as I take a stab at figuring out Marwin Gonzalez.

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When it comes to the third base position, we already know a lot of what to expect in 2017. In a sense, we largely know who will reside at the top and serve as an upper tier fantasy asset, while it’s also relatively apparent who can provide steady production at the position as a secondary choice in upcoming drafts. It’s almost somewhat black and white in a sport that is almost never just black and white.

But beyond my incessant rambling, there’s the “first full year” factor (note: I referred to him as a rookie multiple times because I lacked coffee and common sense this morning), something that you can just barely adequately prepare for. In this case, though, there’s one predominant exception: Alex Bregman. The Houston Astros product figures to be an intriguing option as that first-full-year guy that folks will be all over in the early rounds of drafts. A lot of that is justified, but any time you’re talking about a player coming into his first full season in the big leagues, there is at least some reason for a certain level of apprehension.

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The Astros shocked the baseball world in 2015, improving from a 70-92 record in 2014 to an 86-76 mark, which earned the team a playoff berth for the first time in a decade. Houston benefited from great pitching — finishing the season with the best team ERA in the American League — but that’s not to take anything away from the team’s prolific bats. The Astros were second in the majors in home runs (230) and on base plus slugging (.752), as well as sixth in runs scored (729).

Still, Houston approaches 2016 with a huge question mark at first base, as well as potentially complicated situations in the outfield and behind the plate. Time to sort these situations out, and see if there’s any sneaky fantasy appeal at hand.

FIRST BASE

Jon Singleton currently projects to be the Astros likely Opening Day first baseman, but his leash will unquestionably be mighty short. The 24-year-old hasn’t had much of an issue handling Triple-A pitching in the last two years, but neither his power nor his contact abilities have translated to the majors. That’s a bit of an issue when discussing a defensively limited 1B.

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Relevance in baseball and relevance in fantasy baseball are two completely different things. While the Houston Astros themselves haven’t been relevant to the real baseball world since the Biggio and Bagwell days, there have been a few players from Houston who have done right by the fantasy community. Just because their team sucks, doesn’t mean they do. You have to look at it like stripping down a car and selling off the parts. Collectively, they aren’t worth much, but separately, you’ve got some real nice value to be had. And so it is with the Astros outfield. On the whole, it’s not looking too good and there are numerous other outfields you’d rather see on your favorite team. But fantasy-wise, there’s still hope. Read the rest of this entry »

Houston Astros outfield prospect George Springer has some of the loudest tools in the minor leagues. He’s a fantastic athlete with a combination of power and speed that’s rarely found in a player drafted out of college – and a cold weather college at that. Springer has put up some exciting numbers as a professional and offers hope for both fantasy owners and an Astros franchise that really could use some good news.

The Breakdown

The New Britain, Connecticut native attended Avon Old Farms School. Avon has been one of the better high school baseball programs in the state in recent years and has sent many players on to Division 1 programs. The Minnesota Twins were intrigued by the raw tools and gave the outfielder a look in the 48th round. Springer didn’t sign and ended up going to UConn as expected. He hit well as a freshman (.358/.454/.679 with 16 home runs) and never stopped hitting for the Huskies. Scouts flocked to the Storrs campus to see Springer along with teammates Mike Olt, Matt Barnes and Nick Ahmed. Springer didn’t disappoint and then also wowed scouting directors on the Cape. He had worked his way into consideration for the top half of the 1st round as a Junior, and the Astros ended up nabbing him with the 11th overall pick. Springer destroyed the California League last season to the tune of .316/.398/.557. He’s off to one of the best starts of any minor leaguer this year with 13 home runs already for Double-A Corpus Christi. The flip side of the coin here is that both those leagues are hitter-friendly and strikeouts have been frequent. Read the rest of this entry »

On my last day down at Spring Training I was lucky enough to catch two high profile pitching prospects face each other in a minor league game at Astros camp in Kissimmee. Houston power arm Jarred Cosart opposed the also highly regarded A.J. Cole of the Washington Nationals. I thought today I’d provide a little breakdown of those two pitchers and how they can potentially help your fantasy team.

Jarred Cosart

The Breakdown: Cosart

A 38th round pick by the Phillies out of high school in Texas, Cosart is a big, athletic pitcher who can throw mid 90’s all day long. He has a quick arm and the ball comes out of his hand well. Cosart looks like he throws even harder than the 94-96 mph at which I clocked him. I kept looking down expecting to see a 98 or 99 but never got it. There’s some effort in his mechanics, but nothing that would trouble me in terms of workload or injury. The issue with Cosart is more a question of how his mechanics affect his command. He has trouble repeating his delivery and varies his timing. Some of this is a result of a long arm action in back. He also has a prominent head jerk as he releases the pitch and a cross-fire finish to his arm action. These qualities lead to an inconsistent release point and problems finishing up. This is not conducive to the fastball command necessary to be am effective big league starter. Cosart’s power curveball (78-80 mph) shows some tight spin and deep break but it’s mostly useful as a chase pitch only. He also telegraphs the curve with a pronounced difference in his arm action. There’s no real feel for an off speed offering here. Cosart mixes in a straight change but they were all hard, straight and up in my viewing. The ultimate profile here looks to me to be a relief arm but at age 23 he’s still capable of making adjustments that would fix some of the holes in his game.

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Last season, the Houston Astros’ outfield proved absolutely inept offensively. They compiled a league-worst .287 wOBA and combined for a paltry .221/.296/.351 slash line. That led to the departure of Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic this winter. It has also set the stage for a crowded outfield competition this spring in Kissimmee, Florida.

No outfield position has been carved into stone. J.D. Martinez reportedly has the inside track in left field, despite struggling with a -0.2 WAR and .303 wOBA in 439 plate appearances last year. GM Jeff Luhnow, however, recently said that Chris Carter and Rule-5 draftee Nate Freiman could also see some time in left field to provide more thump to an offense that projects to lack significant home run power.

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This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: Baseball’s best first base prospect gets suspended, and two top young hot cornermen currently remain depth chart victims.

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