Archive for Hector Santiago

We’re back at it after an up-and-down start to Week 3, but I think we have a fairly good trio — including oddly enough, a holdover — heading into Week 4. Let’s dive right in.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 3):

5-4 record
3.18 ERA
8.7 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.35 WHIP
7 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

LHP Hector Santiago – 23.9% ESPN – v. OAK (106), v. BOS (99)

Santiago’s one of those guys who won’t wow you on the mound, but you look up in the fifth and you’re down 4-2 and aren’t sure how he’s kept you at bay. He works high in the zone with a low-90s fastball and doesn’t have especially good control, but just battles with every pitch and executes when he needs to. He’s been a consistent FIP beater for his entire career, which makes it sort of crazy that he was traded for Ricky Nolasco — among others — considering the latter does the exact opposite. What stands out for Santiago this year — in addition to improved walk rates — is that he’s changed his changeup grip and it appears to be working wonders. It has a little less fade than his screwball — which he still throws — and that allows him simply another look with which to attack batters. So far, that changeup has a 14 percent whiff rate this season — well above the 9.6 percent mark he’s had on it over his career.

RHP Robert Gsellman – 14.1% ESPN – @ATL (88), v. MIA (93)

I know the Braves pummeled him last time out — Kurt Suzuki? C’mon man! — but I’ll always gamble on the talent, and I love Gsellman in that respect. He’s still striking out a batter per inning and putting the ball on the ground (57.1 percent), and even despite the fact that he’s facing the Braves for a second time in a row, I think he can beat up on both of these teams. If you like someone else better that’s fine, but I’ll always, always gamble on the talent in these things.

LHP Daniel Norris – 11.9% ESPN – v. CLE (112), @OAK (106)

I really liked Norris last year — 9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.38 ERA — and think he’s bound to round into form here eventually. This is another “gamble on the talent” kind of guy, with a higher groundball rate and lower home run rate than last year. To me, those things are tougher to correct than walk and strikeout rates, where he’s faltering compared to last season. His velo is up and he’s throwing more sliders….I think the strikeouts are just around the corner.

Power at catcher is always in demand, and the position should be getting an influx soon as a the result of a former catcher once again donning the tools of ignorance after leaving the position last year. The former top prospect in all of baseball was Wally Pipped over the last couple of seasons, but he’ll get an opportunity to strut his stuff in the majors over the next couple of weeks. Also, a pitcher whose play and velocity has been up and down this year is coming off of a strong start in which he regained the velo bump he showcased in his first few starts. Read the rest of this entry »

Hector Santiago has historically been the type of pitcher I won’t roster in fantasy. The lefty has a track record of smashing his ERA estimators (3.51 ERA for his career compared to a 4.51 FIP, 4.67 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA) with underwhelming strikeout rates, mediocre stuff and below average control. No, I don’t blindly regress a pitcher like Santiago to his ERA estimators. It appears some skill or skills he possesses allows him to post an ERA that’s better than them. That said, I’m usually leery of the gap between the ERA and the ERA estimators closing, and with the bulk of the lefty’s fantasy relevance tied to posting a helpful ERA, any slippage would cripple his value. This isn’t the same Santiago anymore, though, and I now roster him in all three fantasy leagues I’m in this year. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Thanks in large part to a breakout performance from Garrett Richards, the 2014 Angels rotation was around league average according to WAR, which is quite a bit better than they were expected to perform. Unfortunately, Richards went down with a knee injury in August. How quickly he can return to the mound and how healthy he is when gets there will be a huge part of how good this staff is this year. Past Richards, the Angels have three fairly reliable if unexciting pitchers projected to throw 190-ish innings. Just from writing up a few other teams for our depth chart discussions, I can tell you that’s not a luxury too many other teams have. So despite Richards’ absence early in the year, this staff is more settled than most. Read the rest of this entry »

Jeff Sullivan pointed out that Stroman discovered Roy Halladay’s Sinker and presented his arsenal change (Fourseam and Cutter swapped for more Sinkers):

Stroman upped his Sinker usage and was comfortable using the pitch despite the count situation. From Sullivan’s post on 2/13:

Stroman was comfortable using the sinker when behind in the count against all hitters. Same when he was ahead in the count. Same when he was even. Same on the first pitch. Same with two strikes. He’s got other pitches, a lot of other pitches, and he still has his four-seamer, too, when he wants to elevate some heat, but the sinker has given Stroman something he didn’t have: a groundball pitch he can locate and use to get quick outs.

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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim couldn’t have asked for Hector Santiago’s first season with the club to begin much worse. He’d had a good spring, with a 3.63 ERA and a 24:9 K/BB, but he opened 0-6 with a 5.19 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9 in seven starts (34 2/3 innings). The Halos moved him into the bullpen a couple of days after his May 7 start, against the Yankees. He’d made two relief appearances, eight days between them, before the club optioned him to Triple-A Salt Lake.

The moves may be for the best. Mike Scioscia acknowledged that his team has been putting the left-hander in a tough position. Although the skipper almost certainly didn’t mean to implicate Santiago’s teammates, it’s clear that the rest of this heavenly cast hasn’t helped him much, start by start. Jose Serrano looked into how so a couple of weeks ago at Halo Hangout. Basically, the Angels have played poor defense, and they did so particularly on nights when Santiago pitched. They gave him abominable run support.

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John Lackey | Boston Red Sox | @ Tampa Bay on Tuesday

Adding John Lackey is somewhat like having a huge bowl of ice cream 30 minutes before bed. You hate yourself and know it’s not really good for you. But you can’t help yourself can you? It’s hard to turn down a few scoops of your favorite flavor, and it’s hard to turn down a name you recognize that is currently attached to a 2.82 ERA and 3.23 xFIP.

Lackey has those numbers thanks to a 24.7% K% and 7.2% BB%. He can probably maintain a walk rate like that, but the K rate will likely regress. His swinging strike rate isn’t terrible at 8.1%, but he’s not going to strike out more than a batter per inning at that rate. And his velocity isn’t quite what it used to be. Expect him to settle in the 18%-19% range.

The matchup with Tampa actually isn’t great. They started slow, but they’re currently 4th in the league in wRC+ and lead the league in that category so far in May. But even if you decide to pass on Lackey on Tuesday, he’s worth picking up as a flier. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup is what it is: amazing.

‌• Hector Santiago received the first save opportunity for the Chicago White Sox, and manager Robin Ventura has stated he’ll start the year as the team’s primary closer. Santiago, 24, posted good strikeout numbers in the low minors, but struggled a tad in Double-A last season. The left-hander does possess a low-to-mid-90’s fastball and the ever intriguing screwball, so he won’t be blowing games due to a lack of “stuff.” Saves are always a hot commodity, so there’s a good chance he’s already been nabbed in your league. If so, don’t be afraid to grab Addison Reed in the hopes that Santiago fails.

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