Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.
| Hanley Ramirez, FLA wOBA: .318 Avg. Cost $54.45 Performed As: $13 Value: -$42 |
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN wOBA: .218 Avg. Cost: $6.96 Performed As: -$11 Value: -$18 |
Reid Brignac, TBR wOBA: .207 Avg. Cost: $2.13 Performed As: -$17 Value: -$17 |
My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Today marks the fourth day of a new feature we will be trying out here at RotoGraphs. In an attempt to keep you, the fantastical reader, informed, we will be looking at some of the stories around baseball that have an effect on your fantasy team. Because this piece is ultimately being read by you, your opinion is requested. Please chime in using the comments and let us know what you would like to see from this piece.
– After undergoing surgery on his left shoulder, Cincinnati Reds’ third baseman Scott Rolen will miss at least a month of action. Odds are the Reds are going to give Miguel Cairo most of Rolen’s playing time, and he has actually played well for Cincy this year, already contributing over 1.5 wins to his team. Cairo’s fantasy value is certainly limited, but he may not be a terrible pickup in very deep leagues if you own Rolen. Another player to keep an eye on in Todd Fraizer, but it appears Dusty Baker prefers to keep him on the bench.
Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft. I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces. While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season. I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »
“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”
It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer. Aggravataing? Yes. Both the song and the lack of production. But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?” Read the rest of this entry »
Complaint time, folks! I got my crying hat on today…
We’ve all heard it a million times before — every year, every site, every pre-draft advice column — fantasy championships are won in the later rounds of your draft. When you’re getting third round production from your 22nd round pick, your team is destined for success. What they don’t say is that, while that may be true for the most part, you also need for your first and second round picks to produce accordingly. If not, then you’re in a little bit of trouble. The work it takes to recover from a first or even second round bust is plentiful and can be an agonizing task. Read the rest of this entry »
Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield. You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here. As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA. I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.
Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75
At 24-17, the Florida Marlins are in the thick of the NL East race. The Fish sit just a game and a half back of the division-leading Phillies, thanks to middle-of-the-pack pitching and hitting and superb defense. Florida’s staff collectively ranks sixth in the NL in xFIP, its offense is sixth in runs scored, and Marlins fielders pace the Senior Circuit in runs saved, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.
The Marlins’ offense would no doubt rank toward the top of the league if Hanley Ramirez weren’t mired in a season-long batting slump during which his power production has been downright Ecksteinian. The perennial first-round pick, projected by ZiPS to hit .309/.388/.512 in 2011, has instead slogged his way to a .211/.294/.309 triple-slash through 170 plate appearances.
Some unlucky bounces have played a part in Ramirez’s anemic start — his batting average on balls in play is .242, compared to a .329 expected BABIP and a career .341 BABIP. But there’s no doubt that Hanley hasn’t been his usual, powerful self at the plate. Projected for a .203 Isolated Power by ZiPS, Ramirez has a .099 ISO in 2011 that trails the mark posted by slap-hitting teammate Emilio Bonifacio. What in the name of ottoneu is going on here?
For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching. You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two. With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters. In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »
Commenters in my last post asked how to determine position scarcity in FanGraphs Points leagues, and another reader, Kris, suggested using box plots. I figured “hey, that’s a good idea for a post.” So, here is a box plot based on Marcel projected 2011 performances for starters at each hitting position (using the numbers of players per position that Zach used here).
Last week, after a throwaway comment about his inclusion among the elite shortstops, we had a delightful repartee in the comments section about Jimmy Rollins. I rarely own Rollins because of his first- and second-round cost, but perceive him as elite from afar, so some of the comments surprised me. Was his 2008 “crappy?” Has he really not been elite for years? Do you have to be taken in the first two rounds to be elite? Let’s try and go at this without preconceptions and work forward.
What is elite? I might have a healthy Rollins as the fourth- or fifth-best shortstop in the fantasy baseball this year. Would that be elite? A comparable outfielder would be one that was in the top third at his position, or the ninth- or tenth-best OF. That would be somewhere between Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter Pence so far in 2010. That doesn’t pass the sniff test, so it doesn’t look like Rollins is ‘elite’ if elite means something like the top tenth at a certain position. Certainly, Rollins is not passing Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is healthier and younger, so that’s debatable as well.
So does Rollins belong in the same tier even? He does own a career 105 wRC+, which looks great compared to the average batting-average qualifying shortstop this year – 86 wRC+. Perhaps a comparison to Troy Tulowitzki will help. Tulo put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases to Rollins’ 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year, and while that seems fairly comparable, Rollins of course had a .250 batting average while he accrued his stats, compared to Tulo’s much more palatable .297 number. Case closed? Rollins’ batting average sinks him from the tier?
Maybe. It’s pretty stark. But Rollins had a .251 BABIP last year, which pales next to Tulowitzki’s .316 in the same season, and also next to his own .291 career BABIP. So if Rollins had put up something closer to his .273 career batting average, he probably would be a lot closer to fitting in the tier, no?
Then there’s the issue of Tulowitzki’s speed. It’s inconsistent. It’s not something to depend on. His career success rate is 61%, and his career speed score is 5.1 (5.0 is average). He never stole more than six bases in a minor league season, either. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict that he’ll never again steal twenty bases.
So let’s try to ‘normalize’ Tulowitzki’s stats using his career ISO and this analysis of his speed. If he’s a .190 ISO guy, with questionable speed, we might want to guesstimate something like a .290 season with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases next year. Other guys with .190-.200 ISOs this season include David Wright, Delmon Young and Torii Hunter, and though ISO doesn’t straight up equal home run power, this seems to make sense.
What would a similar guesstimation have to say about Rollins? Let’s take his career batting average, accrued over 6800 plate appearances, add it to his plus speed, and take his .163 career ISO to spit out something like .270, 12 home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a healthy year. That seems comparable to Tulo, even if you give the younger shortstop a nudge for being younger and having more power. Stolen bases are rare, and getting them from a middle infielder is a bonus.
The gorilla in the room is Rollins’ age. He’ll be 32 next year and aging middle infielders can find themselves in precipitous declines – just ask Derek Jeter how 2010 is going. Rollins’ ISO has declined, generally, over the past four years, and his speed scores, though still nice (7.0 this year), have fallen off his elite pace as well. Even though it’s tempting to say he’s been ‘oft-injured’ recently, it’s hard to discern a serious trend in his plate appearance totals. It’s definitely worth noting that his lowest two plate appearance totals will have come in the past three years, though.
Yes, Rollins is declining. Yup, he’s probably not elite. Yes, most people would take Tulowitzki over Rollins. But no, he’s not dead yet. And no, despite his injury-riddled 2010 and poor-luck-addled 2009, he’s not quite ‘crappy’ just yet. Taken at the right moment in 2011, he may just win a few fantasy leagues next year. Heck, his comeback may just win a couple fantasy leagues this year, provided his owners didn’t fall too far off the pace while he was out.