–Edward Mujica blew his first save opportunity of the twenty-thirteen campaign on Independence Day, yielding two earned runs on four hits — one of which left the park — in a 6-5 loss to the Angels. The longball turned out to be the third of its kind Mujica allowed in his previous six trips to the bump — leading to five earned runs — spiking his ERA from 1.57 to 2.62. The fifth of July, however, seemed to be a bit friendlier to the veteran right-hander. Mujica faced the minimum in a clean ninth-inning of work on Friday, fanning two Marlins and inducing one worm burner en route to a 4-1 Cardinals’ victory and Mujica’s 22nd save of the season.

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Whether it’s a worthwhile strategy or not (and I stand by the fact that it isn’t), numerous fantasy owners tend to ignore closers on draft day. Their decision is either to punt saves outright or to just not invest any auction dollars or draft picks on closers and fish off the waiver wire all year for saves. And why is that? Because when it comes to job security, the number of closers who actually have it is quite small. Not to mention, the rash of injuries we tend to see from year to year. And, of course, their side of the debate gets a little boost here in February as we see three situations involving closers already coming to light. Read the rest of this entry »

• Dale Thayer looks to be the closer to own in San Diego for the foreseeable future. Padres’ manager Bud Black indicated today that “Street’s injury is going to be past the 15 days.” At this time there doesn’t appear to be an exact timetable for Street’s return, although Corey Brock suggests it “won’t likely come before September.” Thayer has earned six saves in eight chances this season and sports a 3.51 ERA (4.12 xFIP) with a 3.33 K/BB. He’s available in 80 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
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Today’s Roto Riteup talks primarily about closers. Closers, closers, closers.

–  Grant Balfour has been named the A’s closer, beating out Brian Fuentes. Balfour’s home run rate last season was certainly worrisome, but another season with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.15 is extremely attainable. Balfour is in the last guaranteed year of his contract, so a mid-season trade isn’t out of the question, even though the A’s hold a club option for 2013.

–  With Joakim Soria having big-time elbow problems, Greg Holland should be on everyone’s draft board. While Jonathan Broxton is the experienced closer, Holland is a more effective pitcher and less likely to break down in the process. Projecting where Holland should be drafted is tough, but if he is the full-time closer, there’s a chance he could actually end up in the top-ten at his position thanks to his massive strikeout rate. Mike Podhorzer has more on the subject.

–  Dr. James Andrews alert! Orioles’ starter Zach Britton is going to see the noted baseball mortician after inflammation returned to his throwing shoulder as of late. Britton was the subject of fantasy debate last year over whether or not he was a relevant roto option, but this should help squash any remaining ideas that he should be owned in anything but dynasty leagues. If your keeper deadline already passed, you should be kicking yourself in the face for being so silly.

A Pitcher For Today/Tomorrow
During the season, you’ll be finding recommendations for starters you could stream for the day after the notes, but this being spring training, I’m going to assume you aren’t playing some strange high-stakes spring fantasy game.

If you have anything in particular you’d like to see in this year’s Roto Riteup, please say so in the comments. Feedback is appreciated.

The Boston Red Sox picked up a Jonathan Papelbon replacement on Wednesday, acquiring Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) from the Oakland A’s for Josh Reddick and prospects Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. The five-player swap has plenty of fantasy implications for both Boston and Oakland, so let’s briefly break down the big storylines.

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To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

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J.P. Howell is out for the rest of the year, Tampa Bay beat writer Marc Lancaster announced on Twitter late Friday night. The rationale he cited was that Howell has been pushed, innings-wise, the last couple of years and there’s no reason to push him now that the Rays are officially out of the hunt.

Of course, it’s probably not the 66+ innings he’s put up this year that would have anyone worried, it’s the 89+ innings he put up last year that would be troublesome for a reliever. But it would make sense to take a look at Howell’s year to reflect on the creation of a closer.

Coming into the year, he had shown that he could strike people out (9.27 K/9 in 2008) and that he sometimes had trouble corralling his stuff (4+ BB/9 career). He’s not your typical closer, as his fastball tops out at 86 MPH, and he only uses it around half the time. No, he makes his bread and butter with his curveball, which he throws the second-most in baseball among relievers (36.6%). Throwing a curveball around a third of the time is very Jeremy Affeldt-like, but hey, it’s worked for both of them.

Because of Howell’s unconventional arsenal, the Rays may have been forgiven for thinking that it would instead be fireballing Grant Balfour that would step to the fore to take the job this year. Yes, Troy Percival was the closer in name, but it didn’t seem likely that the forty-year-old would make it through the year. Despite his mid-90s gas, Balfour was already out of the question by the time Percival proved unable to contribute. After a 2008 that saw him pair huge strikeouts (12.65 K/9) with a passable walk total (3.7 BB/9), Balfour dropped off on both accounts this year (9.19 K/9 and 4.59 BB/9) and has had an ERA over five all year.

There was Howell, lying in the weeds. Though his control has been a problem all year (4.46 BB/9), as well as more recently, as David pointed out in the closer report this week, Howell’s performance was the steadiest at the time of Percival’s demise, and he was awarded the title of Closer.

It seems that opportunity and timing are the most important ingredients to creating a closer. Earlier in the season, Dan Wheeler didn’t seem like a good candidate because he was being knocked around the park a little (8.59 ERA in April), but the Rays’ steadiest reliever smoothed out the wrinkles and put in another classic season so far (though perhaps again benefiting from the luck of the bounce with his .203 BABIP over the past two years). He’s whittled his walk rate to the lowest in his career (1.47 BB/9) and is getting people out again despite the ugly FIP. Considering how steady he’s been in Tampa, you might argue that he should have been the closer all along, but with a K/9 under seven over the past two years, you can forgive management for looking for better strikeout totals from their closer.

At least now it seems that Wheeler is the nominal closer for the final two weeks. Whether he’ll ever get the title officially in his career is debatable. But put him on the right team at the right time and he could, as we’ve learned from Howell.