Archive for Gio Gonzalez

Like, not that he’s throwing his curveball with his changeup, at the same time, although that’d be a cool trick (and probably the toughest pitch to hit in baseball). Like, maybe Gio Gonzalez wants to throw his changeup more often, and that has thrown the Washington Nationals, his outcomes, and/or fantasy baseball players for a bit of a loop.

Gonzalez’s overall numbers (a 3.57 ERA, 24.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, and 1.20 WHIP) weren’t too shabby. His ERA was notably worse than his FIP for the first time since 2009, though. You might even look at the career-worst BABIP against him in a season of at least 100 innings (.294) and LOB% (71.0) and say, Oh, that’s just a little bad luck, sign me up next time!

That’ll probably work out, but I hope to find a little more of the why. I’ve started to wonder if Gonzalez didn’t also have a bit of a transition/growth period in 2014 as he began to prepare himself for his 30s. Maybe he’ll be better and a little more dependable.

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Let’s a give a big round of applause to the idiots at the IOC, shall we? The need to draw more attention and revenue to the Olympics led these buffoons to killing the Games’ integrity by removing the amateur status requirements to participate so they could draw in more professional and marketable athletes. While that may have been fine and dandy for the basketball world, as the NBA season ends in June and the summer Olympics don’t start up until late July, it was an epic fail for baseball as players were asked to leave their MLB teams in the middle of the season to go and compete. MLB complied and allowed players to play, but there were no marquee names headed for the games and in the 2004, the United States didn’t even field a team. Read the rest of this entry »

In early February, I wrote a post for “FG+” that endeavored to sniff out starting pitchers who either over-performed or underperformed their inherent strikeout ability. Inspired by Zack Greinke, Tommy Hanson, and Anibal Sanchez, among others – there were many starters that saw pretty massive fluctuations in their strikeout performance between 2010 and 2011. Being the curious human I am, I wanted answers. Or at least a direction on the path of finding an answer.

Specifically, this little study sought out to create an “expected” strikeout rate by controlling for their prior year K%, current year (2011) K%, SwStr%, and fastball velocity (definitions of correlations and the r-squared of the model at the bottom of this post). The results were pretty interesting, should you happen to have access to the full piece.

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Come on, man.  It’s one day out of the year.  That’s all we’re asking for here.  We’re not asking you to split the atom or anything; just give us your undivided attention for only a few hours on one day out of the year.  You better have one hell of an excuse for your absence because even just one team on autodraft messes with the draft strategy of everyone else.

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So a buddy of mine calls me the other day in need of a 10th team for his home league.  Apparently someone dropped out at the last minute due to work obligations and he needed to find someone competitive to fill the slot.  Shallow league, very basic.  10 teams, mixed, 5×5 roto, standard snake draft.  Happily, I obliged and decided that this would be a great opportunity to see just how long I could wait on drafting a starting pitcher while still maintaining a competitive staff in the league.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Chad Billingsley – Consistency has been hard to come by for Billingsley in 2011. Yes, he’s had some stretches where he’s run off multiple wins in a row, but those times were not backed with strong pitching. And here recently it’s been hot and cold for the Dodger righty. The one constant seemingly for Billingsley has been poor results on the road. In his last seven road starts, he’s given up 4, 4, 6, 0, 3, 5 and 3 ER over 45 IP for a 5.00 ERA. For the season he has a 5.53 road ERA, so it’s not like these last seven are out of character for him. Billingsley has a 6.59 K/9 in road games and allows more HR on the road. This week he squares off at MIL and at COL, two really good HR parks. Give him the week off if you can.

A.J. Burnett – It has been over six weeks since Burnett notched his last win and he has not been particularly impressive in defeat, either, with a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts. One of the big problems in that stretch is that he has allowed 8 HR in 42 IP. The good news for Burnett this week is that he squares off against KC and MIN, two of the worst teams in the league in hitting HR. He’s also struggled with his command recently and the Twins have the fewest walks of any AL team. Both of these starts are on the road, which likely works in his favor as the Bronx faithful are not overly fond of Burnett at the moment. Put him in your lineup this week.

Gio Gonzalez – In his last four starts, Gonzalez is 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA. In that span, he has a 2.109 WHIP. Gonzalez’ BB/9 has definitely been a problem (6.3) but no one is going to succeed with the .433 BABIP that Gonzalez has during that stretch. So, is there an injury or is it a slump? Gonzalez also has a 9.7 K/9 in that stretch and his 10.0 SwStr% is right at his 9.7 percent mark for the season. It does not seem like an injury and there is no discussion of any health problems. He has two home starts this week and Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA at the Coliseum. Also his home FIP is 1.07 beneath his road FIP. Keep Gonzalez active this week despite his recent horrible pitching.

Mike Leake – A 3.0 K/BB ratio and five Quality Starts in his last five games have not translated into a great record for Leake, who is 2-3 in that span. He has a nifty 2.53 ERA in his last 32 IP and a normal .316 BABIP. This week he squares off against the slumping Pirates (3-13 in their last 16 games) and Nationals (7-11). Leake is pitching well and he has favorable matchups, so make sure he is active this week.

Cory Luebke – A high pitch count kept Luebke to five innings in his last outing but that was hardly a surprise, as he notched 4 BB and 8 Ks. The walks were out of character but the strikeouts are what fantasy owners have come to expect from the converted reliever. Since moving into the rotation on June 26th, Luebke has a 9.3 K/9. His 2.98 ERA as a SP exactly matches his xFIP. Luebke is stretched out as a SP and has thrown between 100-110 pitches in each of his last seven outings. He has struggled somewhat at home (3.42 xFIP) but he faces two teams from the East Coast and there’s no reason not to have him in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Gallardo, Lester, T. Hudson, Ogando, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Hanson, Holland, A. Sanchez, Pineda, Harang, Liriano, Porcello, Wolf, J. Sanchez, Lilly, Dickey, Vazquez, Collmenter, McDonald, Westbrook, Davis, Blackburn, Alvarez, Moscoso, Hunter, Mills, Duffy, Chatwood, Paulino, G. Richards, Detwiler, Lopez, Sosa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Danks – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER
Lackey – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 8 ER
Peavy – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 15 IP, 3 ER
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 14 Ks, 1.04 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 17.1 IP, 2 ER
Vazquez – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 25. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Gavin Floyd – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball this year has been more Jekyl and Hyde than Floyd. In his last seven starts he had back-to-back starts where he gave up 13 and 11 runs bookend three straight Quality Starts. While going either way with him seems a risky proposition, I think he should be on the bench this week with two road starts, including one in Anaheim versus Jered Weaver.

Gio Gonzalez – Home has been good to Gonzalez this season as he has an 8-3 mark with a 2.70 ERA in Oakland. He got roughed up in his last start in Kansas City but prior to that had ripped off seven straight Quality Starts. With two home games this week, get Gonzalez in your lineup.

Philip Hughes – In his last five games, Hughes is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA. Since the All-Star break Hughes is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA. While the 16 Wins look nice, Hughes has not been a particularly good pitcher for over two months now. Hughes does get two home starts this week but they are against the Rays and Red Sox. The Yankees have scored a ton of runs for Hughes this season, an average of 6.79, so the possibility for a Win is certainly there. But the rest of the numbers could be very ugly. Unless you are desperate for Wins, give Hughes a seat on the bench.

Mike Pelfrey – Hughes and Pelfrey have been linked quite often this season as young pitchers with big win totals for the two New York clubs. While Hughes has benefitted from great run support, Pelfrey has received a big boost from his home park. In Citi Field this year he is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. But in road games Pelfrey is 5-6 with a 5.30 ERA. This week he has road games in Florida and Philadelphia so give him a spot on the bench.

Jake Westbrook – In nine games since joining the Cardinals Westbrook has just a 2-3 record. But he has hurled a Quality Start in eight of those nine games and in his last outing threw eight shutout innings. This week he squares off against Pittsburgh and Chicago, two teams that are a combined 60 games below .500 on the year. Owned in just over half of CBS Sports leagues, Westbrook is a potential waiver wire option in your league. Pick him up if he is available and start him if he is already on your roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Weaver, Carpenter, Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Garza, Billingsley, Cahill, Jurrjens, de la Rosa, Shields, Happ, Lewis, Richard, Matsuzaka, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Norris, Porcello, Bailey, Saunders, Holland, Nova, Volstad, Capuano, Bush, Maholm, J. Gomez, Chen, French, Mendez.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 23 pitchers and how they fared.

B. Anderson – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.84 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.023 WHIP (2 starts)
Gallardo – Advised to sit. W, 1.29 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.929 WHIP (2)
Jackson – Advised to start. 7.30 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.946 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.214 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 4.77 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 12. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Wade Davis – In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. While he has two home starts this week, you might want to bench him until you see some better results.

Gio Gonzalez – Roughed up in his last two starts, both on the road, Gonzalez returns home for two games this week. In Oakland he has a 2.90 ERA in six games. Make sure he is active for games against the Reds and Pirates.

Jamie Moyer – A terrible outing against the Red Sox two starts ago has masked a string of solid pitching by Moyer since early May. Activate him for his two home starts this week.

Jon Niese – Since returning from the disabled list, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA. He has a tough matchup against Justin Verlander in his first outing but has two home starts, where the Mets are 24-10. Keep him active this week.

Jason Vargas – Not everything has been disappointing this season in Seattle. Vargas has a 2.88 ERA and has hurled a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12 outings. Get him in your lineup for this week’s action against the Cubs and Brewers.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Danks, Dempster, Burnett, J. Garcia, E. Santana, Latos, Leake, Baker, Cecil, A. Sanchez, L. Hernandez, Hunter, Chacin, Talbot, Guthrie, Narveson, Ohlendorf, R. Lopez, Chen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Cueto – Advised to Start. W, 6.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.667 WHIP (2 starts)
E. Jackson – Advised to sit. 4.26 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.895 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 15 Ks, 0.753 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to start. W, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.750 WHIP (1)
Slowey – Advised to start. W, 3.86 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)

As a lefty who can spin curves that put Beyonce to shame (okay, not really), Gio Gonzalez garners attention. Gio whiffed 10.3 batters per nine innings on the farm and rated among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects prior to the 2006-2009 seasons. Yet, Gonzalez’s errant control has aggravated decision-makers enough that the 24 year-old has been traded three times-twice by the White Sox.

Last season, Gonzalez was pummeled for a 5.75 ERA in 98.2 frames for the A’s. Or was he? While Gio’s control remained poor (5.11 BB/9), he struck out 9.94 batters per nine innings and posted an above-average 46.1 percent ground ball rate, leading to a 4.02 expected FIP (xFIP). Gonzalez’s decent work was obscured by a .369 BABIP and a near-14 percent home run per fly ball rate. Prior to 2010, I wondered if Gonzalez could trade some of those K’s for fewer free passes:

It’s difficult to say what kind of pitcher Gonzalez will become as he gains more experience in the big leagues. We can dream of a day when he’ll still be whiffing bunches of batters, without the walks flowing as freely as Gatorade in the dugouts.

Granted, pitchers almost never make gains in one area without sacrificing in another. For that walk rate to go down, Gonzalez is going to have to toss more pitches around the plate. That means more contact and fewer K’s. But the trade-off would certainly be beneficial. Easier said than done, though.

So far, Gonzalez has done just that. Last year, he located 44.6 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with a 53 first pitch strike percentage (the MLB averages are 48-51% and 57-58%, respectively). In 2010, Gio has put 47.6 percent of his offerings over the plate, while getting strike one 56.2 percent of the time.

In ’09, Gonzalez threw his four-seam fastball for a strike at a league average 64 percent rate, while his upper-70’s breaking ball was thrown for strikes just 53.7 percent of the time (58% MLB average). In 2010, his four-seamer is getting strikes 66.8 percent and the curve is up to 57.4 percent. Those gains have lead to a decrease in his walk rate. No one will mistake Gonzalez for a marksman on the mound, but his 4.4 BB/9 figure is promising.

The extra strikes have led to an increase in contact rate (from 74.4% in ’09 to 78.2%), but that’s still below the 80-81% MLB average. Gonzalez’s swinging strike rate is down from 10.3% to 8.9%. Again, though, that’s better than the big league average, which is slightly above eight percent. Gio is still getting a good number of whiffs, with 8.48 K/9.

With better luck, a few more grounders (48.7 GB%) and improved control, Gonzalez has posted a 3.82 xFIP. And odds are, he’s still there for the taking: Gio is owned in just 12 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s a volatile talent, but Gonzalez appears to be making the necessary strides to establish himself as a quality major league starter.