Archive for fantasy outfielders

The Rays have two potential positional battles. One is more of a classic debate, whereas the other battle is a little more complex as it is not Player A vs. Player B for the same position. At catcher, the Rays will need to decide how much they value defense over offense with Curt Casali and Hank Conger slated to be behind the dish. Things are a little more complex with the addition of Corey Dickerson, who will certainly play right field with a righty on the mound. What will the Rays do when a lefty starts?

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The Detroit Tigers were one of the big surprises last season finishing last in the AL Central. Coming into this week, left field was one of the competitions we were going to write about for the Tigers. Then the Tigers did what the Tigers do and signed a big named free agent to cover that hole in Justin Upton. As you could predict, Tiger’s management made some noise this off-season to fill some of their holes sufficiently, including the Upton signing and also the Jordan Zimmerman signing. They also acquired Cameron Maybin and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which will impact the playing time for their respective positions.

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Preston Tucker was a 7^th round pick for the Astro’s in 2012 out of fabled Plant High School in Tampa Florida which produced a number of Major Leaguers including Hall of Famer Wade Boggs. Normally a High School prospect with plus power from the left side, a reportedly high Baseball IQ,  and good plate discipline would be drafted fairly high but not in this case.

It’s not that Tucker wasn’t noticed by scouts who liked his powerful yet unorthodox swing and developed arms, but what was mentioned more often than not was that he had a “bad body”—scout parlance that encompasses a number of physical shortcomings and in this case it was his lack of height at just under 6 feet tall. Considered the 14^th best prospect in the talent rich Houston Farm system in 2014, Tucker isn’t even considered the best prospect in his family, as his brother Kyle Tucker who is 6’-4” was recently drafted by the Astro’s as their # 2 pick.

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Yasiel Puig is a mercurial talent and as such expectations are very high. This season has been marred by subpar performance especially when compared to his 2013 campaign.  Puig quickly became a star in his rookie season and we all know how rare that is.  He batted .319 that season with 19 homers, 42 RBI’s and a .925 OPS in 104 games. By means of comparison, Mike Trout erupted in his 2^nd season. Many may forget that Trout batted just .220 in his 40 game introduction to MLB and he started his magical 2012 sophomore breakout season in the Minors.  So shrouded in the veil of high expectations, this is the lens that we should use to look at Puig today.

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The 2014 version of the Cincinnati Reds outfield experienced some level of disappoint. Both Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick hit below league average in 400 or more plate appearances and Chris Heisey‘s 77 wRC+ in 299 PA’s didn’t help. Questions about Billy Hamilton’s bat and contact skills turned into legitimate concerns as the speedy outfielder posted a poor 0.29 BB:K ratio, tied for 122nd among 146 qualified batters. There should be power to be had with Marlon Byrd joining the team and Bruce potentially bouncing back. Just be warned that the rate stats the Reds OF will put up won’t be too pretty.

Left Field
Marlon Byrd
Donald Lutz
Skip Schumaker

Center Field
Billy Hamilton
Jason Bourgeois

Right Field
Jay Bruce
Donald Lutz
Skip Schumaker

In the Minors
Yorman Rodriguez
Jesse Winker

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The Chicago Cubs acquired another major league asset this past weekend, this time via trade, albeit at the price of one of those as well as a possible other. Nevertheless, Dexter Fowler isn’t quite the same kind of asset as Luis Valbuena or Dan Straily, because Fowler plays center field and has generally in his career been cast as a leadoff man, something that his new club sort of lacked. Although Joe Maddon has reportedly taken a liking to Arismendy Alcantara, the up-and-coming Cubbies, understandably, weren’t ready to depend on the 23-year-old to produce as a one-position regular on offense in such an important year.

My reaction to the news included a little raised interest in Fowler in fantasy baseball leagues, I think. Moves like this usually don’t have a drastic effect on a player’s quote-unquote value, though. I’m a little puzzled as to whether my feeling was justified.

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The Milwaukee Brewers’ outfield is home to a pair of highly sought outfielders in fantasy baseball leagues. Khris Davis, after a .279/.353/.596 showing in 153 plate appearances in 2013, was the clear favorite to hold down the third spot coming into the 2014 campaign. He was a pretty popular sleeper (among outfielders, ADP: 46^th, RotoGraphs consensus rank: 43^rd) as well.

For the most part, he didn’t disappoint. Davis finished 40^th among outfielders in money earned thanks to his .244/.299/.457 slash line, with 22 home runs and four stolen bases, in 549 PAs. Fantasy owners, especially those in OBP leagues who probably took a bit of a loss, might have hoped for a little more, but the left fielder’s traditional rotisserie production was a clear win, even if it wasn’t much of one.

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The Kansas City Royals made a surprise run to the World Series this year. Lorenzo Cain was a significant factor in that outcome, relatively speaking. Jeff Sullivan welcomed the center and right fielder to stardom last month. (The anecdote at the beginning is priceless!) The 2014 ALCS MVP kind of arrived.

Fantasy baseball players found Cain to be pretty likable, too. He hit .301 with five home runs, 55 runs, 53 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. He was the 100^th outfielder taken, on average, around the main roto/head-to-head Webiverse, according to Fantasy Pros. His average preseason ranking from the four horsemen was 82^nd. He finished 37^th, per Zach Sanders’ end-of-season outfield rankings, in roto money earned. That’s tidy profit.

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And by does it, I mean that he doesn’t. Unless we’re talking about disappointing fantasy baseball players, in which case: repeat performance. The Tampa Bay Rays’ center fielder hit .244 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 542 plate appearances in a dull campaign. He finished the season on the disabled list, of course, so if we extrapolate to 600 PAs, which is about how many he accumulated in the season prior, then he’d have recorded 11 homers, 71 runs, 40 RBIs, and 17 thefts, all of which are about … worse than how many he accumulated in the season prior.

Why does Desmond Jennings continue to disappoint? It’s a valid question. It may not have a simple answer. But, just as well, it might.

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I don’t think that there’s much to analyze about Leonys Martin the player. The Texas Rangers’ center fielder isn’t a great player. On offense, he’s not even a good player, at least in terms of his weighted value as a hitter. He’s just a player, one who happened to be, based on his ADP (according to Fantasy Pros and his RotoGraphs preseason rank) compared to Zach Sanders’ end-of-season standings at the position, properly “valued” this past season.

Martin the fantasy baseball asset is a slightly different case. He batted .274 with seven home runs and 31 stolen bases. He earned about $12 this season in a typical 12-team mixed league. Judging from his typical cost in CBS leagues and the NFBC as well as the rankings of a couple of folks on the RotoGraphs preseason rankings panel (see here), some fantasy baseball players had hoped for a bit more, it seems.

This is the type of player who’d be on my secondary or tertiary target list next season. Here’s why.

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