Archive for Dylan Bundy

For the last couple of seasons, I have been waiting for a Tyler Anderson breakout. Over the course of 2017 and 2018, he induced whiffs on 11.9 percent of his pitches, which is good for the 21st-highest SwStr% among the 91 pitchers who have thrown at least 250 innings over that span. As I seemingly write in every other column, it is well established that SwStr% is strongly correlated with strikeout rate, yet Anderson’s 22.3 percent K% from the last two years ranks just 41st out of those same 91 pitchers.

The reason for Anderson’s apparent underachievement is clear: he doesn’t get many called strikes. The Rockies’ lefty throws a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and he gets swings on those pitches at an unusually high rate. That helps his swinging strike rate, but the flipside is that he has frozen batters at a subpar 16.5 percent rate over his career.
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Some good pitchers, despite being good pitchers, throw bad pitches. And there are bad pitchers, too, who throw good pitches. Both are true, and one could make an argument a Venn Diagram of the two groups may overlap significantly, and that overlapping area is the group of pitchers toeing the line between breaking out and being unusable for fantasy purposes.

It stands to reason, then, that good and bad pitchers could benefit from easing off or completely abandoning their bad pitches. It’s one thing to evaluate a pitch based on its underlying metrics — its swinging strike rate (SwStr%), its ground ball rate (GB%), its velocity, and so on. It’s another thing to evaluate the pitch objectively by looking at its weighted on-base average (wOBA) allowed, which, I hope, in an adequately large sample, can indicate a pitch’s quality regardless of its peripherals. In theory, the larger the sample size, the greater the probability a pitch’s outcomes will converge with its inputs, such that the caveat “regardless of its peripherals” doesn’t actually mean anything. Given enough pitches thrown, the aforementioned underlying metrics will adequately inform the wOBA allowed.

Using PITCHf/x data from the last two years, I looked for (1) good pitchers who throws pitches that allow (2a) extremely bad wOBAs with (2b) unusually low BABIPs. Incurring high wOBAs on low BABIPs is less than ideal; if BABIP is subject to high variance and generally converges on the league average, then a bad pitch being “lucky” by BABIP suggests things will only get worse.

This post was going to be about several pitchers, each with their own problematic pitches, but I became too passionate about this single case. This is about Dylan Bundy, his abhorrently bad four-seamer, his fantastic slider, and how much his pitch selection is suffocating his potential. Ultimately, it’s about adding by subtracting.

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As we are not even two weeks into the season, it is ridiculously early to draw many conclusions from season-to-date stats. Still, most of us aren’t just standing pat with our opening day rosters, and it’s not just injuries and playing time trends that are guiding our add/drop moves.

It’s certainly not mere coincidence that Jakob Junis is coming off Monday night’s scoreless seven-inning performance against the Mariners and he is atop the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS for starting pitchers. Owners have not been scared off by Junis’ total of nine strikeouts over 14 innings, as they have been drawn in by his 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.
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Hey, we’re back for another season of #2xSP! As you may already know, we’ll try gear this article up for Thursday afternoons during the season. It’s a two-way street, so if you see something you’d like to have changed or something that should be altered, let me know and I’m willing to listen!

Here’s how we finished last season:

46-46 record
3.90 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.32 WHIP
61 quality starts

That’s not too bad considering we do below 50 percent ownership, no? If you want us to go lower, we can consider that as well. Pardon the brevity this weekend — we have a baby shower tomorrow and I’m in crazy prep mode!

Here are this week’s recs (usually with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses, but not this week since the season just started):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 45.2% ESPN – v. NYM, @WAS

He just sneaks in under the wire in terms of ownership, and is coming off falling on the short side of a duel with our second guy this week. Eickhoff does pretty much everything well but not excellently, though the penchant for allowing home runs is a little concerning. Still, solid strikeout rate, no walks and at least so far this year it looks like he might try keep the ball on the ground a bit. Give him a spin! Read the rest of this entry »

Woof. After getting all excited about how Week 14 had started — and it still finished with a solid 2.52 ERA — the wheels came off last week a bit. Then again, we still have Dylan Bundy we can bond over, right? Right?!?

Hopefully this week will be better, as three names really stuck out to me while preparing for this week’s column. Or perhaps more accurately, there were three decent names and a fair amount of ‘meh’.

Here’s a look at the season numbers cobbled together thus far:

32-29 record
3.99 ERA
8.0 K/9
3.0 BB/9
1.31 WHIP
47 quality starts

Here at this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Collin McHugh – 33.6% ESPN – @MIN (99), @TOR (103)

There’s good and bad wherever you look with McHugh, who has a 4.73 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season, but has also managed a solid 121-35 K/BB ratio through 121.2 innings. He was absolutely battered in his penultimate start against the Tigers (eight earned, just four outs recorded) but pretty much all of his starts around it have been pretty good. In his last eight starts, save the Tigers outing, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each, with a quality start in seven of those eight. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Blue Jays in such close proximity; last start he also faced them, and threw six innings, allowing three earned runs — three solo home runs — with 10 strikeouts and just one walk. Read the rest of this entry »

After an incredible first half of week 14 — 0.90 ERA, 3-for-3 in quality starts, 17-2 K/BB ratio and 0.55 WHIP — we’re feeling pretty good heading into week 15. Here’s how things have shook out so far this season:

30-27 record
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.30 WHIP
45 quality starts

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jimmy Nelson – 21.6% ESPN – @SDP (92), @ARI (95)

It might be a tough sell on Nelson, who has decent enough numbers this year but is a) coming off getting absolutely rocked by the Diamondbacks (whom he sees on the back end this week) and b) walks way, way too many batters. He’s got the third most walks in the NL (55) and has given up his share of extra-base hits as well, so while his .255 BAA looks impressive, he’s sporting a triple-slash against of .255/.344/.403. So while that doesn’t look all that appetizing, it came down to him or Adam Conley (Cubs and Rockies both at home), Archie Bradley (also getting largely rocked; will likely face Nelson on Saturday) or James Paxton (Red Sox and Angels). So….we’re playing the matchups here, kind of. Read the rest of this entry »

His rookie season didn’t get off to a good start, but Sean Manaea has pitched much better since making a change to how he throws his changeup. Eno tweeted a pic of the old and new grip in late May. The lefty’s 5.24 ERA is bloated due to his first three starts prior to throwing his new changeup, but he’s been fairly good since. Dylan Bundy has battled injuries and totaled 65.1 innings — this total includes his Arizona Fall League work in 2015 — from 2014-2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery on June 26, 2013. The righty isn’t likely to be a major impact player the remainder of the year, but he could help a bit and his keeper-league stock is up. Read the rest of this entry »

Two different places on the fantasy baseball spectrum, right here. Not much to say besides that before we get to the players, so … let’s get to the players.

P Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

Ownership: CBS 32% | Yahoo! 6% | ESPN 0.1%

Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten about him just because he’s been rehabbing from June surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. It seems as if there’s a good chance that, when Bundy is ready for major league activation, he joins his club’s bullpen, either initially or eventually, and not its rotation. But hey, rotisserie and head-to-head managers have to seek talent, the attribute likeliest to make a difference for them in their league’s standings.

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Damn you, internet! Damn you, hordes of fantasy sports writers churning out an over-abundance of content! It used to be so easy; so much fun. I would dominate my fantasy baseball league year after year and there was no greater ego boost than sitting there on draft day, listening to the chorus of “Who’s?” after making what I knew to be a tremendous and pretty sneaky pick in the later rounds and knowing that the player I just grabbed was going to impress all year and be a heavy trade target for my competition in no time. They used to be called sleepers. Now, thanks to all of you, they’re the trendiest picks in the draft and are losing their value year after year. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Orioles put a pebble in the way of their top prospect’s path while creating some competition with a back-end arm; the Mets have a new reason not to rush their best young pitcher; and the Cubs might not be counting on much from an outfielder with cataclysmic contact concerns.

But first, a quick take on the prospects who were affected by the Justin Upton trade, which is being covered aplenty by my fellow RotoGraphers.

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