Archive for drew smyly

Drew Smyly has a unique fastball. Of pitchers to throw more than 1,250 four-seamers in 2016, Smyly’s fastball was second only to Marco Estrada in terms of vertical movement, meaning, the pitch has “rise”. If Wednesday’s WBC game between the United States and Venezuela was any indication, this pitch is becoming even more unique, as Smyly is now throwing harder than he ever has.

Jeff already wrote about this game on the main site, noting why the Mariners should feel pretty good about their pair of starters, and that (at least according to the telecast) Smyly was topping 94mph. However, today, I wanted to use Smyly as a branching off point to talk about another pitcher.

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In Ottoneu, like any fantasy format, small sample sizes to begin the season drastically impact the standings. The team with the worst pitching in your league has probably allowed more homers than expected. While the team in last place has likely has pitched the fewest innings. It’s easy to blow off these types of starts due the unsustainable performances that aren’t likely to continue (or to front-loading innings). I thought it would be fun to take a different approach today. So let’s play a game…

The rules: Pick 5 SP, total salaries for this rotation of $30 or less based on Ottoneu average values (round up $1 dollar). No picks with an average salary over $12. Arbitrary limitations, I know.

The goal: Build a 5 man rotation assuming you can bank all points that have occurred thus far with the goal of accumulating the most Fangraphs points by seasons end. Let’s make some picks.

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On Friday, Adam McFadden wrote a piece in which he recommended nine players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Adam’s work inspired me to do some digging of my own, and I managed to find some more widely unowned players who could give your team a serious boost down the stretch.

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He’s Back!

Drew Smyly (47%) – Although he looked pretty rusty in his first start since May on Sunday, Smyly needs to be owned pretty much across the board. He was dropped in a ton of leagues when he tore his labrum, to the point where he’s available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Dropping him was understandable, as the Rays initially said he was out for the year, only to retract that statement a week later.

I managed to snag him in a 12-team mixer where he had gone unnoticed on the waiver wire. Maybe you can too.

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Drew Smyly and Bud Norris aren’t unknowns. But you may not realize that both have been among the elite performing starting pitchers over their last month or so. And yet Smyly is owned in about a third of Yahoo leagues while Norris sits at 14%. In ESPN, ownership rates appear to be about 50% for Smyly and 5% for Norris. So there’s a good chance that one or both of them are available at little to no cost. Should you find yourself behind in innings or you’re trying to eek out a spot-start win, keep these guys in mind.

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If you look at the individual player pages for each of the projected Detroit starters, you’ll see that the most recent article in which three of them were tagged was written by me. I’ll summarize the guys I’ve already written about this offseason and then cover the other two.

The only Tiger starter that Steamer projects to have a higher WAR than they did last year is Rick Porcello. I’m with Steamer in thinking Porcello can improve, but unlike Steamer, I think the improvement could be more than slight. Porcello improved in a lot of areas last year. Most notably, he went away from using his sinker as much and moved those extra pitches over to his breaking and off speed stuff. That helped him raise his strikeout rate to league average, and it didn’t hurt his above average ground ball rate. In fact, his ground ball percentage was higher than ever last year. He also improved significantly in a couple of areas in which he had really struggled. He didn’t give up hard contact as much as he had in the past as his ISO allowed was one of the 30 lowest in the league. And after the first month of the year, he almost never gave up anything hard to right-handers. He also got much better out of the stretch. His strikeout minus walk rate out of the stretch was about 3.5% before last year but jumped up to 7.3% last year.

It will be up to Porcello to continue to improve in those areas or at least maintain the gains he made last year. But there’s a factor outside his control that could help him improve this year. In fact, it’s something that will work in favor of all Tiger starters. That’s the presumably improved infield defense. Although the pitcher most likely to benefit from that improved infield is Porcello because he’s easily the most ground ball heavy pitcher in the rotation. Below is a chart showing the runs above or below average (DEF) for the Tigers who played the most at each infield spot last year and the Oliver projected DEF for the Tigers most likely to play the most innings at each infield spot this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Both Tanner Scheppers and Drew Smyly have a chance to be starting pitchers in 2014. Scheppers has a shot at the rotation because Derek Holland is out until the midway point after injuring his knee while supposedly playing with his dog. And Smyly is even more likely to make the Detroit rotation because the Tigers inexplicably traded Doug Fister for some questionable young pieces.

They both pitched exclusively as relievers last season and each threw about 76 innings. Scheppers has never started at the major league level and only started eight games in the minor leagues. Smyly pitched exclusively as a starter in the minor leagues, and his first 16 major league appearances in 2012 were as a starter. So Smyly has more experience as a starter and a higher likelihood of actually being in the rotation, but because I’d like this post to easily surpass 500 words and because of the alliterative title they’re last names allowed me to use, let’s consider their viability as starters together. Read the rest of this entry »

Starting pitching is an area of strength for the Detroit Tigers as they enter the 2013 season, and from a fantasy perspective, Detroit is one of the rare teams that has value one through five. Four slots in this rotation are sewn up, and it’s debatable whether there’s an actual battle for the fifth slot in the rotation. But whoever loses that battle obviously takes a hit to their short-term value. The Tigers didn’t really bring in anyone else to push for a spot in the rotation during Spring, so the picture is pretty clear.

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