Archive for Draftstreet

In the comments I’ve had some interesting interactions lately. Because of that I wanted to address a few things here, in case some of you don’t make it down to the comment section.

First off, thanks for reading these. It feels like the pieces are getting bigger responses.

Secondly, when I make picks I’m doing my best to give you value options. For example, the Blue Jays’ offense is ruthless. You know that, and you definitely don’t need me to recommend them four days a week because you’re more than smart enough to do that on your own. I usually pick a stack against one of the pitchers that has a lot of green cells in the chart I embed. I alluded to it last week, but you could probably pretty easily throw together a stack, or play match-ups, against any of the pitchers I mention in the blurbs under the chart.

Lastly, I was asked why I recommend a three man stack instead of a four man option. My response and, later, my further explanation is below:

It’s honestly kind of just personal preference. Most of the time when I enter GPPs I use multiple three man stacks. This is a good read (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/daily-fantasy-strategy-march-31-for-draftstreet/). I’ve just usually had better a little better luck with a three man stack. Sorry if that seems like a cop-out. I may start including a fourth option for you guys though now that you’ve mentioned it.

…

Yeah, I should have worded that a little better. Usually I have two three man stacks against two of the five or so pitchers I highlight in the blurb. I usually then try to find two upside plays on the same team – around $5,000-$6,000 or so a piece. Then I just fill out the last position with a cheaper guy who happens to have a nice matchup. It rarely works out to where I find three stacks I like, but when it does the results have been nice.

I mostly try to save my money on pitching. Usually I can find two to three options for under $15,000 that I’m comfortable with. Sometimes I get burned on that, but at their price I’m not expecting them to carry me anyways.

I hope that helps explain the process/reasoning I undertake before making my picks. And hopefully we have a little better luck this week. Only Thursday was kind to me last week.

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We’ve reached the points of the season where we have a pretty good idea of where our teams stand. Things can still change, but for the most part you should have a pretty good idea of how good your current roster is.

With that in mind, join me in the comments below and let’s talk about our favorite players to own so far. Try to stay away from the usual suspects: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, etc. I’ll kick this thing off.

I’m doing my first Ottoneu league this year – currently sitting in third place. Without a doubt my best value has been Brandon Moss. During our draft we took a fifteen minute break. When we returned it was my turn to nominate a player for bidding. I nominated Moss hoping to catch some people sleeping and because most of us had blown through a ton of our money. I’m guessing the entire league was still zoned out, because no one bid. Perhaps everyone was waiting on someone else to bid, or taking roster construction into play. Nonetheless, I ended up with a $1 Brandon Moss. Dividends.

In my other auction draft – 12 teams; 5×5 with OBP, QS, and S+HLD in replace of AVG, W, and SV – I have a $2 Christian Yelich. He was only that cheap because he was the 234th player nominated. So by that point, many of the owners had their lineups set or were running low on funds. Yelich has cooled off a little of late, but he’s already earned his keep. Oh, and it’s a keeper league. So if I decide to keep him he’ll only cost $6 next season; not bad what looks to be a player with a shot at a 20/20 season perhaps as early as this year.

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Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.

If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.

Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.

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Memorial Day is behind us. Hopefully your long weekend treated you well. Fortunately there was a full schedule yesterday; today, the same. Brandon Moss kept on raking yesterday. As did Derek Norris, who has been the best hitting back stop by quite a margin. The Athletics are fantastic, in case you were wondering what my point was. I will continue to keep gushing about them.

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Another Friday is upon us. On Wednesday, we talked a little about Sean Doolittle. Today, let’s focus on C.J. Wilson, who happens to be pitching tonight.

Wilson has often been labeled: inconsistent. Maybe he’s been a little inconsistent at times, but that happens to everyone.  Since 2010, though, Wilson has been the 15th best pitcher in the major leagues according to WAR. If you prefer RA9-WAR, he’s been the 13th best pitcher. Granted, WAR isn’t of much use in fantasy leagues, but humor me. Without looking, would you have guessed Wilson was essentially James Shields’ equal during that timeframe? I wouldn’t have. I also wouldn’t have placed him above Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, or Matt Cain, but there he is.

The past few years, the only qualm anyone has been able to have with Wilson has been the amount of free passes he’s given out. Well, he’s remedied that somewhat in 2014. His walks are down a little; the lowest they’ve been since 2011. His strikeout rate is also the highest it’s ever been as a starter. And so his his ground-ball percentage. Keep it rolling, sir.

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Sean Doolittle gets a lot of love. He’s similar to former Athletic Brandon McCarthy in some respects: He’s accessible on Twitter. He has a good sense of humor. And he’s more than okay with advanced statistics. But since he hasn’t been a full time “closer” until this season he’s somewhat overlooked, or at least he feels overlooked. Perhaps I’m just looking in the wrong places for Doolittle praise.

In this space, I had written: Sean Doolittle hasn’t walked a batter yet. Not one in 81 plate appearances. He then went out and walked one last night. So, his total now sits at one, after facing 85 batters. Damn it, Sean.

Thanks, in part, to an increase of his slider usage Doolittle’s strikeout rate has soared to a career high 34% (12 k/9). He’s been a little unlucky, with respect to his career norm, on home runs, but he’s still posting the best FIP of his career. If more context and adjustments are your thing, his xFIP- of 54 ranks him tenth among relievers, ahead of Kohi Uehara and Glen Perkins. (Dellin Betances is first, with a 33(!), but that’s for another day.) In short, Sean Doolittle is really, really good. And best of all, in today’s age of specialists, Doolittle destroys lefties and righties almost equally. You’ll find no discrimination in Doolittle’s game. For his career, right handed batters have a wOBA of .252; lefties, .260. Not too shabby.

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As usual, we have a full slate tonight. Unfortunately, the odds of all of the games being played without a hitch is in question. Yankee Stadium (Pirates @ Yankees) has a an 80% chance of rain at game time, and 90% throughout the day. There’s also a 60% chance of rain in Colorado, but it does appear the weather will begin to taper off at/around game time.

A few more games – Cincinnati at Philadelphia, Detroit at Boston, Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – could be delayed. So be mindful of those when you’re setting your lineups. The only game I’m strictly staying away from is Pittsburgh at New York (AL). And that’s a shame, because I really liked Neil Walker versus David Phelps.

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It’s an exciting day in New York. Young Mets’ prospect Rafael Montero is making his major league debut. Due to the fact that it’s his debut, he has no data in the chart below. I have no scouting chops whatsoever, but I’ll do my best to give you a little introduction to Mr. Montero.

Montero has put up quality numbers everywhere he has pitched. His numbers haven’t been quite as gawdy this season, but don’t worry too much. Las Vegas – and the PCL in general – is a terrible place to pitch.

Fangaphs’ own Marc Hulet wrote the following about Montero earlier this year:

The Scouting Report: Montero is a rare Latin prospect who has a high ceiling despite being a late bloomer and not signing until he was 20 years old. His strengths as a pitcher are his above-average command and control, which help all three of his pitches play up. He possesses a low-90s fastball, slider and changeup. He needs to stay on top of his pitches more and try to create more of a downward plane.

There you have it. Montero should be fun to watch, especially if he’s able to command his fastball well. I’m not using him today, thanks to the Yankee Stadium effect, but he could be a nice cheap play going forward.

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Well, I had some pretty good luck this weekend with some of the lineup choices I recommended. It was about time. It felt like it had been forever since I really had things fall the way I’d hoped.

I’m sorry if that comes off as arrogant. I’ve honestly just been so busy at work that I didn’t have the time to look up any cool facts or research any players somewhat intensively, so it seemed like a good time to toot my own horn a little bit. It may be a little bit before I feel confident enough to do it again, so feel free to let me know the next time I whiff badly in order to bring me down a peg.

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If you haven’t noticed by now, I usually like to spotlight a player who is struggling or excelling and shine a little light on why either is happening. Ian Kennedy will be our focus today. After being traded to San Diego by Arizona last season, Kennedy was pretty good (3.97 xFIP). And because of how he pitched down the stretch and the park he now calls home is so friendly, he was a target many people had going into draft season. Man, oh man, has he rewarded the owners (myself included) who either drafted him or picked up off of waivers.

Kennedy’s strikeout rate has spiked an incredible amount, and San Diego’s catchers may have a little to do with that. Both Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera grade out fantastic framers, according to the numbers. 25% of Kennedy’s strikeouts have occurred when a batter was caught looking. His highest percentage since his fantastic 2011 season. He’s caught opposing batters looking 14 times already, compared to 33 last season in  181 innings. Kennedy’s been able to leverage an increase in velocity, phenomenal catchers, and more ground balls into fantastic numbers so far. And I see no reason why he can’t continue it going forward.

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