Archive for Detroit Tigers

As I prepare for my fantasy drafts, I always pay close attention to average draft position (ADP) data to help identify where I might find bargains in my drafts and auctions. It’s a great way to figure out who I’m higher (and lower) on compared to my fellow fantasy owners, which is arguably as valuable as determining my own rankings in the first place. I’ve already done columns on shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a look at the hot corner.

Thanks to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), we already have a healthy sample of draft data for 2018. I don’t think it’s any secret that third base is a much more productive position than it once was in fantasy, but there’s still some wacky stuff going on with these ADP values. For example, Kyle Seager and Adrian Beltre are currently being drafted as the No. 17 and 18 3B, respectively. To be fair, Seager hit a career-worst .249 last year, and Beltre played just 94 games due to hamstring and calf strains. Still though, both Beltre and Seager were fantastic fantasy assets as recently as 2016, when they were the No. 5 and 6 third basemen in fantasy.

“But maybe they’re not young and sexy enough,” I thought to myself. “With so many youthful studs at the position, maybe fantasy owners are simply getting bored with vets like Beltre and Seager.” That also appears to not be the case. What I’m coming to realize is that I might just have vastly different 3B rankings than other owners, at least once we get past the No. 10 slot. (For reference, you can view these ADP values paired with Steamer projections right here.)

I think the top 10 3B by ADP are quite reasonable, but when we get into the double digits, madness ensues. Madness! For example, let’s take a look at these two picks, who constitute my underrated/overrated comp for third base.

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If you took a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hard-hit rate in 2017, you would probably surmise that Nick Castellanos actually did break out, as opposed to what the headline of this post may indicate. Castellanos hit the ball hard more frequently than all but six players this season, as you can see below. The ranking by each player indicates his end-of-season rank in standard 5×5 leagues:

• J.D. Martinez – 15th – 49.2%
• Joey Gallo – 99th – 46.4%
• Aaron Judge – 5th – 45.3%
• Miguel Sano – 102nd – 45.2%
• Paul Goldschmidt – 4th – 44.4%
• Corey Seager – 66th – 44.1%
• Nick Castellanos – 65th – 43.6%

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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The Detroit Tigers were one of the big surprises last season finishing last in the AL Central. Coming into this week, left field was one of the competitions we were going to write about for the Tigers. Then the Tigers did what the Tigers do and signed a big named free agent to cover that hole in Justin Upton. As you could predict, Tiger’s management made some noise this off-season to fill some of their holes sufficiently, including the Upton signing and also the Jordan Zimmerman signing. They also acquired Cameron Maybin and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which will impact the playing time for their respective positions.

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Coming into 2015, baseball fans everywhere had the same question on their collective minds: “Is J.D. Martinez sustainable?” The question was more than fair, as there were plenty of indicators that the now-28-year-old’s 2014 breakout could be a fluke.

It was all too easy to point at Martinez’s batting average on balls in play (.389 in 2014) and write off a good portion of his .315/.358/.553 slash. His power spike — from a .120 isolated power in 2013 all the way up to a .238 ISO the next year — was impossible to ignore, but naysayers still had avenues through which to dismiss it.

Martinez may have hit 23 homers in 480 plate appearances in 2014 — with another ten in just 71 PA in Triple-A before his promotion — but had never hit more than 19 in any season, at any level. Moreover, he hit just 19 total homers in the 864 PA he compiled in 2012-2013. Now all of a sudden, he hits 33 of them in one year? This was another area that was relatively simple to disregard as flukish.

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It’s been a rough year for Ian Kinsler and Neil Walker, in very similar ways. Neither is having trouble getting on base, as both have batting averages in the .270s and on-base percentages around .340. The problem is that both Kinsler and Walker have suffered through season-long power outages, severely diminishing each man’s fantasy value.

On the year, Kinsler is the No. 10 fantasy 2B, with Walker slotting in at 13th. However, both have heated up in the month of July, with Kinsler posting an .843 OPS, and Walker sitting at .885 (neither had even broken the .750 mark in any of the season’s first three months). Walker has launched three of his seven 2015 homers since the calendar turned over from June.

Kinsler only has one long ball this month, but he’s also hit two near-homers that struck the top half of the wall, and has a total of six extra-base hits. With both players finally showing signs of power production, let’s take a look at who you’d rather have on your fantasy team rest-of-season.

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With a bonafide superstar manning first base — and third base eligible in some leagues — the Detroit Tigers infield offers a first round pick. The club also sports an upper echelon talent at second base, however shortstop, third base and catcher all have offensive question marks. Still, with Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler anchoring the infield, no one is questioning the talent.

First Base
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez

Second Base
Ian Kinsler
Hernan Perez

Shortstop
Jose Iglesias
Andrew Romine
Hernan Perez

Third Base
Nick Castellanos
Andrew Romine

Catcher
Alex Avila
Bryan Holaday
James McCann

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Round and round she goes; where she stops, nobody knows.  This closer carousel that keeps spinning around this season is starting to become downright unbearable.  They say never to pay a premium for saves on draft day because they’ll be abundant on your waiver wire, but this is ridiculous.  Now it’s getting to the point where you shouldn’t be spending so much of your FAAB dollars either because the shelf-life of a closer in 2012 is about a week.  Here’s a look at who’s getting the baton passed to them now… Read the rest of this entry »

Unless you’re sitting on one of the top five or six guys that are out there, chances are you’re struggling with production at second base and are looking desperately to find someone to plug that hole for the rest of the year.  Well, based on these ownership percentages, you might just have that help right in front of you.  Here’s a pair of guys you might want consider using right now… Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar getting ready to flip to June and with updated catcher rankings on their way, there’s been a decent behind-the-scenes debate over the power and performance of 24 year old Detroit Tigers backstop Alex Avila.  Currently, Avila is sporting a slash line of .279/.346/.529 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI.  He’s tied for second in HR amongst catchers, leads in RBI production and according to most overall rankings based strictly on 2011 performance, he is listed as the second best catcher behind Russell Martin.  There’s no doubting his current performance totals here, but the question remains…can he keep it going? Read the rest of this entry »