Archive for Derek Holland

Derek Holland Is All Grown Up

The kid with the creepy mustache turned in his finest season in 2013. Although it wasn’t backed up by the win column, Derek Holland was one of the finest starters in the American League, besting the likes of David Price, Doug Fister, Jon Lester, and Hisashi Iwakuma by way of wins above replacement. Perhaps because he only managed to eek out 10 wins, his 3.42 ERA (3.44 FIP) and 189 strikeouts seemed to be often overlooked in fantasy circles. In formats which don’t value wins, however, Holland was ace-like.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/16/13 – For Draftstreet

Why is Alex Wood only the 15th most expensive pitcher today? With a price tag of only $11,219, he represents a nice value today for several reasons, the first of which is that he is good. And we’ll discuss that more in a moment. But there is also the fact that he will be facing the Nationals who have the 4th worst wRC+ against left-handed pitching like Wood. And the weather conditions in Atlanta will be favorable for pitchers. Game time temperature is projected to be fairly low at 70, and the wind will be blowing in from right at 7 mph.

But Wood being good is the most important factor. Kevin Correia has a good match up and favorable weather conditions today, but that isn’t enough to make you ignore his below average ERA and strikeout rate. The quality of the pitcher is obviously still a factor. Read the rest of this entry »


Week 12 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: LeBlanc, A. Miller

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Godfrey

Dillon Gee – How much money do you think you could have made in Vegas at the beginning of the year by placing a wager for Gee to make the All-Star team? He couldn’t even make the starting rotation for the Mets, who spent the offseason signing every injury reclamation pitcher they could. But Gee is 7-0 and in his last six starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA with a 3.0 K/BB ratio. And the only reason he’s not 6-0 is because he had to leave his last start after four innings (no runs, one hit) due to a rain delay.

Gee’s stuff is frequently described as underwhelming yet he has a double-digit SwStr%, which would be a top-20 mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s added over two full strikeouts per nine to his mark from last year, he keeps his walks to an acceptable rate (3.0 BB/9) and doesn’t give up many home runs (0.55 HR/9).

His matchups this week are mixed, with a home start against the A’s and a road start in Texas. But at this point, Gee should be owned in every league and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Get him into your lineup.

Derek Holland – In his last five games, Holland has pitched 31 innings and allowed eight home runs. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.52 ERA in this span. But he also has 27 Ks and a 2-1 record, which basically sums up Holland – he’s going to get you strikeouts and there’s a good chance he can get you wins, too. This week he has home starts against the Astros and the Mets. He has a 6.68 ERA at home this year and a 1.742 WHIP.

It seems like these would be good matchups for Holland, as Houston and New York are both near the bottom of the NL in HR. But Holland has been knocked around at home despite allowing just 3 HR in 31 IP. So he has just been hit unlucky. But the Mets and Astros are both above average in the NL in hits and New York is also above average in walks.

In making the decision with Holland it feels a little like going around in circles and that you can come up with a justification for whichever side for which you are predisposed. But ultimately if you have the depth, I would think this would be a good week to leave Holland on the bench.

Chris Narveson – Like Holland, Narveson is another SP option who may not be top tier, but who is worthwhile because he has a nice K-rate (8.04 K/9). But he is maddeningly inconsistent. In his last seven starts, Narveson has three where he’s given up 0 or 1 ER and four where he’s allowed four or more ER. One thing where Narveson has been a little more dependable is his home/road split. His ERA at home (3.86) is a full run lower than his road number (4.93). And while we usually think of Miller Park as a HR-friendly venue, Narveson has only allowed 2 HR in 32.2 IP at home compared to 5 in 45.2 IP on the road. This week Narveson has two home starts against AL clubs who will have to forfeit their DH. Make sure he is in your lineup this week to enjoy the Ks and hopefully pick up a win or two.

Carl Pavano – A rough start still has Pavano’s overall numbers looking pedestrian but he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in his last seven starts, with Quality Starts in his last three outings. But the Twins have not given Pavano much run support this year (3.40 per nine) and the veteran has displayed a big home/road split. At Target Field, Pavano is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. But on the road he is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA. This week he has road starts in San Francisco and Milwaukee. So while he has been pitching better recently, give him the week off if you can.

Carlos Zambrano – Those who believe in karma can look at Zambrano and nod with approval. After having the bullpen blow a win in his first start in June, Zambrano ripped his teammates. And while he apologized, the gods were not appeased, as in his two starts since the outburst, Zambrano has allowed 12 ER in 12.1 IP. So, will his penance be over after two starts or is he in for more payback?

This year, Zambrano has a 5.22 ERA on the road and has allowed 25 BB in 50 IP. It’s tough to win with that walk rate and Zambrano compounds the issue by permitting 6 HR away from Wrigley this year. This week he has two road starts in AL parks, meaning he faces an additional hitter. Keep Zambrano on the bench this week and hope that this will be the end of the repercussions for his remarks.


Will Derek Holland Finally Get a Chance to Shine?

Derek Holland fell off of prospect lists in 2009 by pitching 138+ innings, but he’s still unproven and holds the excitement of unfulfilled potential. So far, the excuse has been the crowded house that has been the Rangers rotation, but this year, the Cliff-Lee-less front five could use a boost, especially from an exciting lefty with a power fastball and upside to boot. Could this be the year he finally busts out?

First, the rotation looks crowded again, but once you get past the top three, there are many question marks. Scott Feldman hasn’t put up a league-average FIP since his 41 1/3 relief innings in 2006, and Eric Hurley has 24 2/3 innings of poor major league work and much less potential on his resume. Brandon Webb is new in town, but given his injury situation, it’s not a stretch to say that a combination of Webb and Feldman might get the Rangers one more starter in total.

Which, of course, leaves a spot for Holland. Last year he was already above league average (4.02 FIP), so he’ll be a real-life boon to their rotation. His 8.48 K/9 is already impressive, and should he repeat the statistics he showed last year, he will be interesting in deeper leagues. How much can he do beyond?

Coming up through the minor league system, there was talk of Holland having a plus-plus fastball, but so far his linear weights on the pitch have been poor and his velocity has been closer to 92 than the mid-90s he showed. One thing that Holland could conceivably improve is his groundball rate. These things might even be related. Look at his heat maps for the fastball.

It looks like Holland tends to pitch up in the zone, which can lead to more fly balls. Fly balls in Texas are no good. It looks like this trend has held steady for Holland so far, which could mean that there’s something about his fastball that works better up in the zone, or that he’s entrenched. If not, he could add more groundballs with lower fastballs pretty easily.

Two other things bode well for Holland. So far, his walk rate in the majors (3.27) and last year (3.77) have only been okay. Not terrible, but okay. In the minor leagues, Holland routinely put up sub-three walk rates. If he can bring that walk rate back down, he could approach a three-to-one K/BB ratio, which is excellent.

The other piece of good news is that his changeup made progress last year, at least when judged by linear weights. It went from a strong negative to a scratch pitch. Given that he has a good fastball and slider, developing that changeup is tantamount to his success. He’s still throwing it 10% of the time, and if it’s a scratch-or-better pitch, then he’s got a strong mix – and he’s a lefty. That’s a combination that could lead to some fantasy success, so consider Holland late in your drafts when you are looking for upside for your bench in mixed leagues.


Stock Watch: May 18th

  • Stock Up
  • Johnny Cueto, Reds

    Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

    Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

    He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

    Brett Gardner, Yankees

    Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

    While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

    Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

    Derek Holland, Rangers

    After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

    Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

  • Stock Down
  • John Lackey, Red Sox

    Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

    In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

    Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

    Lastings Milledge, Pirates

    When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

    In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

    Mitch Talbot, Indians

    Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

    The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.


    2010 Sleeper: Derek Holland

    Along with RHP Neftali Feliz, lefty Derek Holland is supposed to anchor the Texas Rangers pitching staff for years to come.

    The lanky, 6-2 Holland was taken in the 25th round of the 2006 draft as a product of the now defunct draft-and-follow system. Holland impressed Rangers brass at Wallace State Community College, earning a $200,000 signing bonus.

    He made his pro debut in 2007, and immediately began tearing minor league hitters to shreds. Holland whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings in 67 frames in the Short-Season Northwest League, issuing 2.8 BB/9 and posting a 3.29 FIP.

    While Holland didn’t crack Baseball America’s list of Texas’ top 30 prospects before the 2008 season, he caught everyone’s attention by rocketing from Low-A to AA that year. In 150.2 combined IP, Holland punched out 9.4 batters per nine frames, walking just 2.4 per nine with a 2.64 FIP.

    The scouting reports were every bit as promising as the stats. BA ranked Holland as the second-best talent in a deep Rangers farm system prior to 2009. They noted a gradual increase in velocity for the southpaw. He started the season sitting 89-93 MPH, but he was popping the radar gun in the mid-90’s during the regular season and touching the upper-90’s during the AA Texas League playoffs. Holland also had an above-average low-80’s changeup, a promising, if inconsistent, low-80’s slider and a curveball.

    Holland was one the fast track for sure, but he was surprisingly in Texas by April of 2009 after just one start at the AAA level. He ended up tossing 138.1 innings for the Rangers, making 21 starts and 12 relief appearances.

    At first blush, the results suggest that Holland shouldn’t have been anywhere near a major league mound. After all, his ERA was a macabre 6.12, and he was blasted for nearly 1.7 home runs per nine innings pitched. However, beneath that gory ERA, Holland showed a lot of promise in 2009.

    He struck out 6.96 hitters per nine frames, while issuing a solid 3.06 BB/9. Unfortunately, Holland suffered from a .321 batting average on balls in play. He did give up his fair share of fly balls, posting a 41.5 GB% that was a few ticks below the 43-44% major league average. But even with fly ball tendencies, Holland’s homer rate was too high. His home run per fly ball rate was 14.9 percent. That was the fourth-highest rate among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. Expect that figure to regress more toward the 10-12% average in 2010.

    Overall, Holland’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) was 4.38. The difference between his ERA and xFIP was among the largest in the majors in 2009.

    Holland featured a four-pitch repertoire. He used his 92-93 MPH fastball often, tossing the pitch 70 percent of the time. Baseball America said that Holland’s “slightly across-the-body delivery and excellent extension give his fastball deception and life.” His Pitch F/X numbers bear that out, as Derek’s fastball tailed in toward lefty batters 8.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin (6.4 average for LHP). The precocious lefty supplemented his heat with 82 MPH sliders (thrown 12 percent), 84 MPH changeups (11 percent) and mid-70’s curveballs (7 percent).

    Throwing his fastball with great frequency, Holland posted an 82% contact rate (80.5% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the zone was 89.6% (87.8% MLB average). Holland’s 7.4 swinging strike percentage was a little below the 7.8% average for starters.

    When Holland gets more comfortable implementing his breaking stuff and changeup, it’s reasonable to expect those contacts rates to drop (fastballs have the highest contact of any pitch). His slider, in particular, showed promise with a high whiff rate. More sliders, curves and changeups could mean more free passes, but also more strikeouts.

    As a 22 year-old with minimal experience past A-Ball, Holland managed to hold his own in the majors in most respects. The usual injury caveats with a young pitcher apply. But Holland has high-caliber stuff and a superb minor league track record, making him a nice sleeper pick for those willing to look past that ugly ERA.


    Wednesday’s Free Agent Pitchers

    Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

    Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.

    Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.

    Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.

    John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.

    Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.

    Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.

    Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.

    David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.

    Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.

    Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.

    Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.

    Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.

    Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.

    Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.

    Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.

    Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.

    Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.


    Rookie Watcher: Who Wants It?

    Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

    In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

    The American League

    The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

    The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

    The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

    The National League

    The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

    The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

    The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.


    Texas Takes a ‘Holland Day’

    Well this is odd. The Texas Rangers club is pitching poorly. With the fourth worst FIP and the third worst WHIP in all of Major League Baseball – and five pitchers with ERAs above 10.00 – the organization purchased the contract of one of its Top 2 pitching prospects. Left-hander Derek Holland has replaced right-handed reliever Josh Rupe, who was designated for assignment. Rupe had allowed 12 hits in 4.2 innings.

    Holland was pitching in Triple-A Oklahoma, where he had made just one start this season. He allowed four runs on five hits and three walks in four innings of work. On the plus side, Holland also struck out five batters and induced four ground balls to just one fly ball. A starter in the minors, Holland is expected to begin his MLB career in the bullpen but it may not be long before he’s given a shot in the rotation considering the poor pitching performances from Kris Benson, Vicente Padilla and Matt Harrison.

    Holland had a breakout season in 2007 – just his first full season in the minors after being selected in the 25th round of the 2006 draft out of Wallace State Community College. He signed with Texas the next spring. The southpaw played at three levels in 2008, seeing the most time in A-ball. He allowed 57 hits in 67 innings of work while also posting rates of 2.79 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. Holland then started five games in High-A ball and four games in Double-A.

    Holland’s repertoire is above-average for a left-handed pitcher. He can touch 98 mph with his fastball with excellent movement. His second-best pitch is a change-up, and he’s still working on the consistency of his slider.

    Given his inexperience above single A-ball (five games), as well as the history of poor pitching in Texas, Holland probably will not set the world on fire right away. The club is being smart by introducing the left-hander to the Majors as a reliever. The 22-year-old hurler likely won’t have much of an impact at the big league level in 2009 but the experience should help set the foundation for a promising career… Assuming, that is, that the club doesn’t trade him away like Armando Galarraga, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks.