Archive for Depth Charts

Yesterday, I compared hitters’ FANS projections to their Depth Charts projections in order to identify the biggest discrepancies between the two. For more information on why I’m doing this or what FANS and Depth Charts projection entail, I cordially invite you to click here.

I’m here to repeat the exercise but with pitchers instead. Focusing on playing time (as measured by innings pitched), K/9, BB/9 and saves. I’ll mix in starters and relievers at my discretion or where obviously necessary, like for saves. Like I did yesterday, I’ll try to limit each blurb to three sentences.

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Last year, I performed this very exercise, in which I compared FANS projections — projections generated by fans — to the Depth Charts projections — a composite of Steamer and ZiPS with playing time allocated by generally informed FanGraphs staff. I intended to highlight the largest discrepancies and offer a quick take on them.

I explain my interest in FANS during the inaugural of this exercise. Said interest pertains largely to anticipated versus most likely outcomes for a player and how those disparities manifest themselves in price distortions on draft day.

This time around, instead of discussing five National League outfielders at length, I’ll focus on the largest differences between FANS and Depth Charts projections in playing time, home runs, stolen bases, wOBA and WAR for a couple of players per category. I’ve set a personal goal for no more than three sentences per player so I don’t spend all day doing this. Because I could, and nobody wants that.

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A month ago, I compared Depth Chart projections — a composite of the reputed Steamer and ZiPS projection systems — to fan projections, compiled on each player’s page as “FANS.” I proceeded to look at the largest differences between the two systems — loosely considering the aggregation of independent fan projections a “system” — and identify which system better projected that particular player.

For hitters, the Depth Charts won by a landslide, 7-2. Turns out that fans frequently projected better production from prospects than what said prospects actually produced. It’s the cognitive bias I expected to see; I anticipated that fan(tasy owner)s associate hype with swift, robust production. I call it the Mike Trout Syndrome, named after the generational talent who has conditioned fans to expect immediate and immense production from all top prospects.

So how did the fans fare versus the Depth Charts regarding pitchers? Funny you ask. Here are the five starting pitchers whose Depth Charts FIPs varied most dramatically from their FANS FIPs:

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Back in February, I compared preseason projections between reputed projection system Steamer to those submitted by FanGraphs readers, dubbed “FANS.” The concept was simple: identify National League outfielders whose Steamer and FANS projections varied wildly and predict a “winning” projection. (In the same vein, Community poster Bobby Mueller compiled some nice summary statistics.)

Alas, I needlessly task myself with determining who fared better: the Depth Charts — which are Steamer and other reputable projection system ZiPS, with playing time allocated by FanGraphs staff — versus the fans.

Because the present author, whose analytic capacity is debatable but authorship of this piece is absolute, retains sole proprietorship of quasi-analysis that has a moderate to high probability of spiraling out of control, he has chosen three statistics with which to compare qualified major league hitters: weighted on-base average (wOBA), an offensive rate statistic (not that it offends anyone, per se, but, well, you know); Fielding (Fld), a defensive statistic, probably; and wins above replacement (WAR), an overall performance metric.

Yours truly has elected to discuss only the most egregious differences in projections and declare winners between them accordingly. Granted three nominees within three categories, an outcome in which a winner is not declared is highly improbable. Alas, a true, rightful and, above all, 100-percent authoritative champion may very well be crowned in due time. So, who will it be: the wisdom of the masses, or the wisdom of two computers?

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Toronto Blue Jays held on to just one outfield starter from last year’s opening day lineup, but when that person is Jose Bautista, the Jays still have some outfield production. The park plays up power — especially right-handed power — however outside of Bautista, don’t count on too many home runs. Rather than the long ball, expect speed from the Jays mostly new outfield.
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While the Giants have won two World Series titles in the last four years, you simply can’t deny that left field has been a consistent problem spot for them. Sure, they’ve gotten away with some patch jobs like Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Gregor Blanco and even Brandon Belt, but the lack of consistency and a true big bat has been more than prevalent. This season, as you look at the Giants’ depth chart, it’s more of the same. The Giants’ brass has changed the dressing on the wound, but it may only be a short matter of time before it starts to bleed through. Read the rest of this entry »

Much about the White Sox bullpen is more stable than it has been in years. They have a closer in place, they have a set of reliable set-up men, and they have respectable depth in the minors should they need it. However, with six viable starters for five slots, the Sox also have the option of moving Hector Santiago or Jose Quintana into the bullpen for this season.

Both will join the White Sox rotation soon enough, but if Santiago is the odd man out, he’ll likely stay with the major league club in a set-up role. This is unlikely to affect either of the Matts – Thorton and Lindstrom – but it could move Nate Jones from his set-up job back down to lower leverage middle relief.

The White Sox bullpen was right about league average last season, but with another year of experience for players like Addison Reed and the addition of Lindstrom, there’s a very real possibility that they’ll be a top-10 bullpen this season. Read the rest of this entry »