FANS vs the Depth Charts: 2016 Pitchers

Yesterday, I compared hitters’ FANS projections to their Depth Charts projections in order to identify the biggest discrepancies between the two. For more information on why I’m doing this or what FANS and Depth Charts projection entail, I cordially invite you to click here.

I’m here to repeat the exercise but with pitchers instead. Focusing on playing time (as measured by innings pitched), K/9, BB/9 and saves. I’ll mix in starters and relievers at my discretion or where obviously necessary, like for saves. Like I did yesterday, I’ll try to limit each blurb to three sentences.

P.S. The number (#) listed after “FANS” indicates the number of fans who submitted projections for a particular player.

P.P.S. All projections are current as of March 12.

Playing Time

*Again, like last time, I have omitted names of recently injured players, such as Brett Anderson, for whom their FANS projections will be vastly overstated.

Scott Feldman, HOU SP
FANS (7): 147 IP
Depth Charts: 48 IP

This is where I shamelessly quote my own tweet to prove a point:

Feldman and Doug Fister would offer the Astros similar skill sets with similar outcomes; however, Fister keeps losing velocity and it’s anyone’s guess he’ll regain his form. Still, Fister once, years ago, flashed a slightly higher ceiling, and I have a hunch (as does a nameless FanGraphs writer) that the Astros will bank on it despite Feldman being the Astros’ highest-paid pitcher.

Chris Heston, SFG SP
FANS (8): 172 IP
Depth Charts: 82 IP

After a glut of new arrivals in San Francisco, and with the ghost of Matt Cain still lingering, Heston will likely be crowded out of a rotation spot. It’s unfortunate, because he offers a decent skill set that could even help owners in shallower formats. Alas, I understand the bullish projections from the fans, but I’m inclined to take the way-under on what amounts to near a full season’s worth of starts.

K/9

Mychal Givens, BAL RP
FANS (5): 11.5 K/9
Depth Charts: 9.5 K/9

Sometimes, you’ve never heard of a guy, and I had never heard of Givens until RotoGrapher Brad Johnson hyped him up after selecting him in a draft this weekend — and understandably so, givens given he struck out six times as many hitters as he walked en route to a 2.38 FIP. Never known for control, he suddenly turned the corner last year in Double-A, not only lopping off more than half his walk rate but also ramping up his strikeout to more than 12 K’s per nine. Thing is, neither of his two main pitchers appear to be anything special by PITCHf/x’s standards, so I’m inclined to side with the Depth Charts and hedge my bets on a guy who skipped Triple-A.

(Givens also tops the BB/9 discrepancies list. And, well pretty much every list. Fans and projections are deeply torn on him.)

Carson Smith, BOS RP
FANS (7): 11.3 K/9
Depth Charts: 9.9 K/9

Fans see a 11.8 K/9 last year and drool; the projections see a 9.4 K/9 at Triple-A in 2014 and hesitate. There’s merit to both views, but Smith’s slider rated among the game’s best for relievers in 2015, and he throws his bread-and-butter pitch more than 40% of the time. It could be enough to keep his strikeout rate up near 30%, like FANS expect, rather than closer to 25% like the Depth Charts expect.

BB/9

I don’t know what’s going on, but the top of the list of biggest walk rate disparities is populated by Blue Jays, both currently and recently former. Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez, Aaron Loup, Roberto Osuna, J.A. Happ, all in the top nine — I don’t know what’s going on, but it’s fishy, so I’m going to skip them all.

Henry Owens, BOS SP/RP
FANS (8): 3.3 BB/9
Depth Charts: 4.2 BB/9

Control has always eluded Owens. That readers expect him to improve over last year’s small sample is some form of mistaking correlation for causation. I think he benefited from the small sample, preventing him from experiencing regression mid-season; I won’t trust him until he demonstrates continued proficiency (a term used loosely here) in the free-pass department.

Tyler Glasnow, PIT SP
FANS (5): 3.9 BB/9
Depth Charts: 4.5 BB/9

Glasnow posted a 2.82 FIP as a 22-year-old in Triple-A last year, so it’s easy to get excited about the young arm. He walked a lot of batters, though — like, a lot of batters — something he has also consistently done since rookie ball in 2012. That makes the first half of his nice 2015 season seem more like a mirage, thus making me inclined to not only side with the Depth Charts but also wonder why everyone’s so dang excited about Glasnow making an impact.*

*This year. Surely, Glasnow’s a top-flight prospect who, and it’s well-documented. He wouldn’t be the only pitcher on Pittsburgh’s staff who loves strikeouts, walks and ground balls (looking at you, Francisco Liriano). But a BB/9 of roughly 4 can be pretty harmful, even in deeper leagues. I wouldn’t mind seeing him marinate a bit longer at Triple-A, is all, and I won’t be targeting him in any non-keeper/non-dynasty formats.

Saves

Roberto Osuna and Drew Storen, TOR RPs
FANS: 21 SV (16) and 21 SV (9)
Depth Charts: 8 SV and 30 SV

This makes me sad because Osuna is an exciting young arm. Storen gets the job done, though, and if he can repeat his remarkable 2015 (in terms of strikeout success, as opposed to ERA, FIP or ground ball success), he’ll be plenty serviceable in 2016. Fly balls are a concern for both of them, though, and more so for Osuna, so maybe it’s not such a bad thing for the 21-year-old to marinate a bit — he likely has a long career ahead of him in relief.

Arodys Vizcaino and Jason Grilli, ATL RPs
FANS: 17 SV (7) and 22 SV (6)
Depth Charts: 10 SV and 21 SV

(Seniority rules.)

Vizcaino is Osuna Lite — which says a lot while also not much all — and Grilli is the new fly-ball king of the South. The park situation is fortunate for Grilli — Turner Field ranked 29th of 30 parks in home runs last year — and he flashed quality stuff prior to the injury that derailed his, woah, age-38 season. Vizcaino suffers from fly ball issues, too, and he doesn’t quite exhibit the same control that Osuna did in his rookie debut, but he could be (or have been) a good enough last reliever off the draft board.

* * *

I’ll loft the question again: Are there any FANS or Depth Charts projections you think are especially strange? Completely off?





Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Featured in Lindy's magazine (2018, 2019), Rotowire magazine (2021), and Baseball Prospectus (2022, 2023). Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.

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prosenblum
8 years ago

now seems like storen is clear favorite. did many fans make that projection when it was less clear (before spring training)?