Projections vs. the Fans: Who Won? Hitter Edition

Back in February, I compared preseason projections between reputed projection system Steamer to those submitted by FanGraphs readers, dubbed “FANS.” The concept was simple: identify National League outfielders whose Steamer and FANS projections varied wildly and predict a “winning” projection. (In the same vein, Community poster Bobby Mueller compiled some nice summary statistics.)

Alas, I needlessly task myself with determining who fared better: the Depth Charts — which are Steamer and other reputable projection system ZiPS, with playing time allocated by FanGraphs staff — versus the fans.

Because the present author, whose analytic capacity is debatable but authorship of this piece is absolute, retains sole proprietorship of quasi-analysis that has a moderate to high probability of spiraling out of control, he has chosen three statistics with which to compare qualified major league hitters: weighted on-base average (wOBA), an offensive rate statistic (not that it offends anyone, per se, but, well, you know); Fielding (Fld), a defensive statistic, probably; and wins above replacement (WAR), an overall performance metric.

Yours truly has elected to discuss only the most egregious differences in projections and declare winners between them accordingly. Granted three nominees within three categories, an outcome in which a winner is not declared is highly improbable. Alas, a true, rightful and, above all, 100-percent authoritative champion may very well be crowned in due time. So, who will it be: the wisdom of the masses, or the wisdom of two computers?

wOBA

3. Joc Pederson, LAD OF
Depth Charts: .323 wOBA
FANS: .352 wOBA

Pederson quickly scaled a very steep cliff in the first half from which, without proper precautionary equipment, he would fall in the second half. Fans were pretty jazzed about the young dynamo prior to April, and rightfully so. Steamer and ZiPS expressed a bit of pessimism, however, likely in light of a minor league strikeout rate that increased dramatically with each graduated level.

Actual: .335 wOBA
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 5 points

It’s a minor victory, but it’s a victory nonetheless. Pederson split the difference, but someone’s gotta win.

2. Jace Peterson, ATL 2B
Depth Charts: .276 wOBA
FANS: .310 wOBA

Peterson’s inclusion could be a genuine misunderstanding on behalf of FanGraphs’ databases. There’s actually no way to absolutely guarantee Jace Peterson and Joc Pederson are not, in fact, the same young baseballer trying to pull a Bruce Wayne on Major League Gotham. They are both zodiacal Tauruses (Taurii?). You can’t make these things up, people!!!

Actual: .287 wOBA
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 12 points

It’s only two results, but I’m starting to sense a trend, one that I’d like to investigate on a rainy day that’s not today because it is, in fact, raining right now: fans exude more optimism for top prospects. I think a lot of undue enthusiasm — although, to be clear, it’s not all unwarranted — can be blamed on an already historically great Mike Trout.

1. Michael Taylor, WAS OF
Depth Charts: .289 wOBA
FANS: .338 wOBA

I won’t hide my man crush for Taylor. A Pedersonian, Steven Souzaian, four-tool hitter, his power-speed combination was too much to resist despite a borderline atrocious minor league strikeout rate.

Actual: .274 wOBA
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 49 points

This one wasn’t even close, as Taylor pulled a Price is Right on everyone and generated offensive value less than what Depth Charts and FANS predicted. Bob. Taylor, like Pederson, is toolsy as all else, but the elusive hit tool sank him like a stone.

Fielding (UZR)

3. Ben Zobrist, OAK/KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF/GM
Depth Charts: 3.9 runs
FANS: 10 runs

Zobrist, who, lauded equally for his versatility and acumen in regard to defense, had generated fewer than 10 defensive runs above replacement only once dating back to 2009, could have been what my uncle calls a mortal lock to generate another 10 defensive runs in value. Yet the computers wavered. Did they know something we didn’t?

Actual: -10.0 runs
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 6.1 runs

Probably, yeah. But the precipitous dip in defensive value seems a bit rash. At 34 years old, Zobrist converted fewer routine plays (90- to 100-percent success) at every position than ever before, per Inside Edge. It may never get better, as people rarely get younger, but the teams courting him this offseason will likely overlook the down year.

2. Brett Gardner, NYY OF
Depth Charts: 10.2 runs
FANS: 4 runs

After a few years of defensive excellence, Gardner’s defensive value tanked in 2012, hovering around league-average before sliding into the red last year. Depth Charts predicted, frankly, a ridiculous 10 runs of value from Gardner despite generating less than one-fourth of that projection the previous three seasons. Fans were rightfully more skeptical, but still optimistic.

Actual: -2.7 runs
Verdict: FANS, by 6.2 runs

Gardner didn’t convert a single play considered “unlikely” (10 to 40 percent success) or worse. Assuming the average unlikely play yielded a 25-percent probability of success (the mean of 10 percent and 40 percent), he should have converted approximately 3.75 of those. As Mr. Burke, my high school US History teacher, probably would have said, “He was beaten by the chimp.” Theoretically, a roomful of chimpanzees, if allowed to complete a standardized test, could be expected to answer roughly one-fourth of the questions, given each question has four options. Theoretically, a chimp could have fielded nearly four of the unlikely plays were he equipped with a mitt and maybe some custom cleats. Theoretically, we’ll never know if Mr. Burke would have been wrong.

Note: Evan Gattis omitted because he inhabited a designated hitter role primarily.

1. Avisail Garcia, CHW OF
Depth Charts: -3.8 runs
FANS: -11 runs

FYI, FanGraphs says Garcia, prior to this year, owes his current and past employers about $6.3 million in damages rendered, aka wins not above replacement.

Actual: -6.3 runs
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 2.2 runs

It was as ugly as last year, which, in a sense, is actually a victory, given Garcia more than doubled his career playing time in 2015. He also generated less value with his bat than his glove — truly a remarkable feat in this particular context.

WAR

Note: Michael Taylor appears twice, so I omit his second appearance. Because I can.

3. Kyle Seager, SEA 3B
Depth Charts: 4.0 WAR
FANS: 5.6 WAR

Seager had a career defensive year in 2014, and he was no slouch in 2015, either. His defense enhanced his overall value, though, and it could have been legitimately expected to regress toward the mean a smidge.

Actual: 3.9 WAR
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 1.7 WAR

Unfortunately for Seager, he posted virtually identical offensive numbers in 2015 as 2014. Yet given the incredibly strong (pun intended) class of young third base talent, his achievements didn’t pack the same punch as usual.

Depth Charts are running away with this.

2. Andrew McCutchen, PIT OF
Depth Charts: 6.0 WAR
FANS: 7.6 WAR

In the preseason, I warned of declining production — not to be mistaken with eroding skills — due to diminished baserunning activity and pitchers evading the zone more often than ever.

Actual: 5.8 WAR
Verdict: Depth Charts, by 1.8 WAR

Pitchers continued to evade the zone, and a slight down-tick in contact impacted his plate discipline and, thus, his batting average. Entering his age-30 season, things won’t get better in regard to the youthful aspects of the game such as baserunning and defense. His bat and eye will have to carry him; fortunately, those aspects have yet to considerably, if at all, decline.

1. Lorenzo Cain, KCR OF
Depth Charts: 2.8 WAR
FANS: 4.6 WAR

What better hitter to finish this post than with 2015’s surprise Most Valuable Player candidate? Relative to the Steamer and ZiPS, fans were friggin’ stoked on Cain for 2015. Cain generated modest value with the bat fueled by an exorbitant .380 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Can’t fault the computers for regressing to the mean.

Actual: 6.6 WAR
Verdict: FANS, by 3.8 WAR

Tell me with a straight face that you knew Cain would basically double his career home run total in the course of one season. Tell me with a straight face that all signs pointed to the 29-year-old putting hard-hit balls into play almost 50 percent more often than the previous year, during which his hard-hit rate (Hard%) tumbled 3.5 percentage points lower than his previous career-worst Hard%.

Don’t tell me. I’m not listening!

The Verdict

The computers took the humans to the slaughter, winning seven of nine contests. You’re welcome for not abruptly ending this post after Game 6, when the Depth Charts technically clinched the series.

For real, though: it’s a small sample, but the computers seem to fare better on the most-disputed players. Because of the inherently statistical nature of forecasting, the projection systems are generally more conservative overall — and, in light of outliers, they will, more often than not, more adeptly anticipate regression to the mean better than humans could. I know this post was mostly for funsies, but I think it gives an interesting, albeit truncated, glimpse into the cognitive biases from which we fantasy baseball enthusiasts generally suffer.