Archive for Daniel Murphy

Yahoo launched their fantasy baseball site for 2017 over three weeks ago, which means that by now, there should be some solid trends to analyze in their average draft position and auction value data. There’s some surprises to be found in the early returns, so let’s dive right into the top 12 by average auction price. (When looking at the 2016 values, keep in mind that Turner and Gordon each played roughly half a season, and Carpenter dealt with an oblique injury.)

• Average auction price on Yahoo (2016 end-of-season value)
  • Jose Altuve – $49.0 ($34.7)
  • Trea Turner – $41.2 ($10.7)
  • Robinson Cano – $28.1 ($26.2)
  • Brian Dozier – $26.2 ($27.0)
  • Jonathan Villar – $26.0 ($26.4)
  • Daniel Murphy – $25.2 ($25.4)
  • Rougned Odor – $25.0 ($19.3)
  • Ian Kinsler – $17.7 ($23.7)
  • Dee Gordon – $17.1 (-$4.0)
  • Jean Segura – $16.7 ($24.9)
  • Jason Kipnis – $16.1 ($16.4)
  • Matt Carpenter – $16.1 ($7.2)

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Last week of the regular season! Like the real baseball, I am sure many of you in fake baseball are still sorting through your playoffs. Here’s hoping that this info can be of help and use to you. Let’s get to it.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the utter sadness of Jose Fernandez’ untimely death. We have discussed his injuries here in the MASH Report before, but this is just a gut punch for sure. The exuberance with which he played the game is something we will miss. After dealing with TJS in 2014 and a shoulder issue last year, he was putting up the best numbers of his young career. While not 100% back into a sound mechanical groove, he was, in my opinion, starting to show improvement. Too bad we won’t get to see the next chapter. What a career cut short. Prayers for the family.

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Check out last month’s rankings here.

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No more bland, rote tiers from this guy! Thanks to the urging of commenter “Urban Shocker,” my eyes are now open to the fun that can be had with ridiculously labeled tiers. You see, I used to just write these monthly second-base columns with boring old numbered tiers. That is, until Urban Shocker convinced me in the comments section of my April rankings to name my tiers from then on.

To be perfectly honest, the task of doing these monthly rankings can get rather stale — for both me and you — as the season wears on. Eventually, it gets to the point where the rankings barely change, because 30-day samples don’t substantially change the way I/we think about a certain player.

Furthermore, there’s only so many ways I can say “Jose Altuve had a good month again,” or “Dee Gordon steals lots of bases,” or “Holy crap, Dan Uggla is so incredibly terrible!” (Actually, never mind on that last one. I will never get sick of making jokes about Uggla, who got paid $13 million last year to post a weighted offense 72% below league-average.)

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Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.

With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.

I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.

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In his fourth full big league season, Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy finally fulfilled his fantasy promised and delivered great value to his owners. Likely drafted in the last two rounds or simply left as waiver wire fodder, Murphy ended the year as the league’s fourth best fantasy player at the pivot.

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Recently I’ve taken a look at early season changes in contact rate and fly ball rate because of Russell Carleton’s research showing we’ve reached the point in the season where the sample for those statistics has become ‘reliable.’ There has been some debate in the comments about what reliable means and how much the small season sample can help us in predicting what a player will do the rest of the season.

I look at it like this. For the statistics that have crossed that reliability threshold,  we can look at the players who have seen the biggest changes in either direction and feel safe that their skill has improved or decreased to some degree. That doesn’t mean regression isn’t coming. It just means that at the end of the year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a player with an improvement or decline from their career mark in a particular category. Although the improvement or decline at the end of the year is not likely to be as extreme as it is at this point in the season.

Today I want to look at the hitters who have seen the biggest changes in ISO because a fair number of players have now crossed the 160 AB threshhold shown in Carleton’s research. Below are the guys who have seen the biggest increase in ISO. After that, we’ll examine whether some other statistics back up the power surge. And a little bit later we’ll see if we can’t figure out how much regression to expect. Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Murphy has started to command more attention from fantasy owners. He amassed 600 plate appearances for the first time last year and has really locked down the everyday role at second base. And over the last three seasons, he has hit .302/.344/.425 for the New York Mets — only Robinson Cano has a higher batting average among qualified second basemen over that time frame.

Despite that fact, according to Zach Sanders’ End of Season Rankings, Murphy was only the 18th-ranked second baseman in standard fantasy leagues last season. This is largely due to his lack of power and (somewhat) stolen bases. To put his lack of power into context, he only hit six home runs in both 2011 and 2012. Last season, he ranked 20th among qualified second basemen. Only Jemile Weeks and Jamey Carroll hit fewer home runs.

Murphy hasn’t always lacked power, though. He had double-digit home run totals in 2007 and 2008 in the minors, and he also launched 12 home runs during his first full season in the majors in 2009. The potential for double-digit homers seems to be present.

Could this be the season in which everything comes together and he hits for both power and average? After all, Mets’ manager Terry Collins believes Murphy is “capable of hitting .300 with 15 homers a year” and his .167 ISO through his first 23 games is the highest of his career.

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For a team that’s in a highly transitional period like the Mets, their infield situation is surprisingly set. Unlike their complete mess of an outfield, starters at all five infield positions are pretty easy to nail down.

But just because we know who is starting on Opening Day hardly means that it will be the same player throughout the season, and nowhere is that more apparent than at catcher. John Buck is clearly nothing more than a placeholder for top prospect Travis D’Arnaud, and if Buck is still starting for this team past July then something has gone horrible, miserably wrong. Since it’s the Mets, that’s always possible, and Buck should get the majority of the playing time for at least the first few weeks of the season. You know what he is by now, and that’s a one-category player who will provide his fair share of power while killing you absolutely everywhere else. Behind him, Anthony Recker is just a Quad-A type who merits no fantasy consideration whatsoever. Read the rest of this entry »

Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

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So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

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