Archive for Dan Uggla

“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”

It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer.  Aggravataing?  Yes.  Both the song and the lack of production.  But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?” Read the rest of this entry »

This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Dan Uggla. Expect the opposite side shortly.

Coming into this past week, you’d be hard pressed to find a player that better epitomized the phrase “fantasy disappointment” than Dan Uggla.  While he had seven home runs to his credit by the close of May, he was also sporting a .178 average and had produced a measly 17 RBI.  His OBP hung at a woeful .246 and the talk of manager Fredi Gonzalez giving him a “rest to clear his head” became more prominent, threatening his playing time.  Not that anyone thought the Braves would really bench their new prized second baseman, but with each week that passed from the start of the season, Uggla’s owners have been more and more concerned. Read the rest of this entry »

With players like Dan Uggla and Chone Figgins stinking up the joint and others like Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis banged up, there is a dire need to patch up some roster holes at both second base and the middle infield position.  Sometimes, though, filling in the holes can be rough.  When you’re fishing near the bottom of the waiver wire barrel, the production expectations are usually pretty low, however, here are a pair of guys who just might exceed your expectations. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

Read the rest of this entry »

Though the purported four-year, $48M contract offered by the Marlins to Dan Uggla would have made the second baseman the highest-paid Marlin in 2011 (and worth about a quarter of the team’s full payroll), the beefy second baseman didn’t think much of it. Perhaps he has a point – he’s beaten that value for four straight seasons (and significantly in three of those years). In any case, what would a move out of Florida do for his fantasy value?

First, though his .330 BABIP doesn’t seem drastic, it’s almost 110% of his lifetime BABIP (.302), and he hits enough fly balls (45.9% flyballs lifetime) that low-BABIP years are about as likely as high ones. In fact, he’s seemingly alternated BABIPs in the .270s with ones over .300 his entire career. Give him a BABIP in the .270s next year, and his batting average will likely decline. Don’t pencil him in for another .287 year at least.

Considering that he doesn’t steal many bases (19 career), his value is of course tied up in his power. Florida’s stadium has always had the reputation of being a power-suppressor, so it maybe surprising to learn that StatCorner says the park has a 95 home-run park factor for right-handed batters. It even augments extra-base hits (and triples especially, with a 133 park factor for trips). Some argue that three-year samples better reveal a park’s true nature, so we’ll turn to ESPN’s page to find that the three-year average for home run park factors in Florida is .931. So Uggla has perhaps seen his power at home suppressed by 5-7%, it seems.

On the other hand, Uggla’s career splits don’t seem to have noticed. He’s slugged .485 at home and .490 away, which would seem like a difference until you remove all the singles and look at the ISOs – .224 at home and .225 away – or the HR/FB rates – 15.1% at home, 15.6% away. In order for the needle to really move on his power (which has been pretty consistent, with ISOs between .216 and .254 since his rookie year), he might need to end up somewhere that is friendly to right-handed batters.

According to partner site MLBTradeRumors.com, the known suitors are the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, and Tigers, with the Braves late to the party. St. Louis is the obvious concern, with their 73 HR park factor for righties last year and a .803 three-year average – if he ends up playing with Albert Pujols, you’d actually want to bump his value down. Instead, Uggla owners should be rooting for a move north – the Blue Jays’ park had a 116 park factor for righties this year, and a 1.091 three-year average.

A quick word on Uggla’s RBI totals would seem to make sense here. Though he’s been a strong run producer throughout his career, his teams have conspired to keep him from crossing the 100-RBI threshold until this past season. The 2010 Marlins were seventh in National League in runs and eighth in wOBA. The Cardinals, Braves, Tigers and Jays all had better wOBAs and scored more runs. As long as Uggla doesn’t end up in our nation’s capital, his RBI total stands to grow.

At 30 years old, Uggla is right on the precipice, with his decline staring him in the face. He’s right to fight for the best deal he can get after getting a late start to his career. On the other hand, with the right move – to the right park – he might get a power boost that could lead to a career-high in home runs and a great peak year (at least in fantasy terms).

Time to update the second basemen, using Fans’ projected wOBAs for another week. Huzzah!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)

Not too much to say here really, though it seems that Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have probably moved past Brian Roberts for good by proving, at the very least, that they have not yet peaked. Roberts’ back issues may affect him all year long and dampen his speed, and the younger two guys are showing sweet power right now.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.347 wOBA)
6. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)
8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.357 wOBA)
10. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)

To be honest, it’s hard not to continue dropping Roberts further, but at least he’s in the right tier now. Chone Figgins has had bigger steals years more recently than him and belongs ahead of him anyway. In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size Surprises, Dan Uggla has maintained his overall power while striking out and walking about at about half of his 2009 rates. The most worrisome thing about Ben Zobrist’s poor start is his reduced walk rate, but even if the power regresses from last year’s probable peak, he’ll retain good value at shortstop.

Streaking Youth:
11. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.361 wOBA)
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
13. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

Gordon Beckham isn’t exactly streaking to the fore, but he’s still got the upside to move up the list. In the early going, he’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same rate as last year, but reduced power and a poor BABIP are holding him down. ZiPS RoS is still optimistic though. Rickie Weeks looks like he may be in the midst of a career year. While it’s early going, and his BABIP is unsustainable, there’s a lot to like in Weeks this year – he’s combining his best walk rate with his best strikeout rate and his highest ISO, but all three numbers are close to his career norms. Seems organic. The same can be said about Ian Stewart – his current career-best K% is closer to his minor league number than one might expect after last year’s whiffing. His bat is showing light-tower power at this point, too. All three of these guys have a great shot of outperforming the Middling Veterans.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
16. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
17. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)

This group is pretty meh. Polanco looks to be enjoying the new park, but who knows how many home runs that will translate into. He’s a good contributor in runs and RBI though. Howie Kendrick is doing what we thought he could, but it’s still not going to mean a lot of home runs or steals.

Upside to Join the Top:
18. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.330 wOBA)
19. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.341 wOBA)
20. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.338 wOBA)
21. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.347 wOBA)
22. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.332 wOBA)

Casey McGehee probably deserves a post of his own, but there are still reasons for skepticism. That he’s showing this level of power for a prolonged period of time is, to say the least, unexpected. Kelly Johnson is showing that his poor 2009 was mostly poor BABIP-driven and is enjoying his new team. Alberto Callaspo is disappearing off of waiver wires currently, but Ty Wigginton that also deserves some attention. He’s got a little pop and everyday at-bats right now and is a great short-term add.

A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

Two outfielders with similar names put up eerily similar fantasy numbers last year. Here are the respective numbers for Jason Bay and Jayson Werth:

JB:.267-36-119-103-13
JW: .268-36-99-98-20

The largest difference in any category is the 20 RBIs that separate them. As you might imagine, the two winded up with very similar dollar values. The RotoTimes Player Rater gave Bay’s season a $24.40 total while Werth’s received a $24.12 value.

But while those were very close, there were many, many more players who winded up with closer gaps in their dollar value. Many of these players played different positions and posted very different stats, but came out with similar values. For instance, check out these two lines:

A: .281-13-90-73-7
B: .243-31-90-84-2

Which one would you rather have?

Player A is James Loney, with an $8.53 value, while Player B is Dan Uggla, who checked in with an $8.52 total. Obviously, you would rather have Player B, once you know it was Uggla, a second baseman. The Player Rater does not take into account position scarcity. So, when making comparisons you either need to build in your own adjustments or focus on players at similar positions.

Let’s look at two players who have been compared recently by agent Scott Boras, in Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday. Boras, the agent for both, is trying to get a contract for Holliday similar to the one he arranged for Teixeira last year. The argument has been met with a lukewarm response from the baseball community, but is one that was fairly apt for fantasy purposes last year. Here are their fantasy numbers:

MT:.292-32-122-103-2
MH:.313-24-109-94-14

The Player Rater gave Teixeira a $25.70 value and Holliday a $25.52 one.

Another interesting comparison between two players with very different skills but similar overall values last season is Ian Kinsler and Michael Bourn. Kinsler’s power and Bourn’s speed produced virtually identical fantasy seasons.

IK:.253-31-86-101-31
MB: .285-3-35-97-61

The Player Rater had the two separated by just one penny, with Kinsler posting the higher value at $22.81 last season.

Dollar values are not a precise measurement and different sites will have different values for players. These are best used as a rough estimate of value and as a reminder that owners (and players) can acquire value in a multitude of ways.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops and catchers.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Chase Utley is in a tier of his own. No other second baseman has been able to combine the power and speed and batting average year-in and year-out like the pomade Phillie infielder. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are missing the batting average and the health, Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts are missing the power. That said, these top five second basemen are all reasonably stable players that boast good speed along with varying degrees of power. They just don’t all have the total package like Utley.

The next tier should be the controversial one. While Aaron Hill’s season was one for the ages, there are understandably some doubts about his ability to repeat. He more than doubled his previous career-high HR/FB percentage without really showing a corresponding change in his approach. The most likely scenario is that Hill settles in with similar power to fellow tier-member Robinson Cano. Cano would be higher but since he’s shown that his batting average seems so tied to his BABIP, there’s some rightful nervousness about his ability to repeat his own career year. Dan Uggla and Jose Lopez have similar power and similar batting average issues. Pick the right player during a good BABIP year, and you’ll have a great second baseman with a decent batting average and lots of power. Get the guy in a bad year, and you’ve seen what can happen.

The last tier holds the most risk, as it should be. There are many Asdrubal Cabrera fans, and his double eligibility will get him drafted at one of the keystone positions. The problem is that the speed is somewhat borderline (21/29 in 1000+ at bats) and the power is negligible. Clint Barmes may not succeed on a good percentage of his attempts, and he’s a much more flawed real-life player, but he’s reached heights in power and speed that Cabrera may never. Adam Kennedy had a great year and ended up right around where he was five years ago, a second basemen that can hit double-digit home runs, steal about 20 bags, and hit close to .300. It’s not the same upside as the rest of the guys in the tier, but it seems repeatable. Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks probably have the most upside of the tier, but they are quickly running out chances in the minds of fantasy managers. Both made strides in their limited time last year and make for good bench plays in mixed league drafts for managers that got a third- or fourth-tier second baseman as their starter.

Overall, the position seems pretty deep, with empty-batting-average guys numbering #15-18 as backup plans. Once Utley goes, managers might be best served waiting for a second baseman to drop, knowing that they can probably take a shot on a young guy with some upside once the top 12 are gone.

In his third season in the majors last year, Dan Uggla set career marks in HR (32) and RBIs (92) and re-gained 15 points in average that he lost from the year before. It would appear that Uggla is on a fantasy upswing but there are just enough warning signs to make owners leery about investing too much in him.

Uggla has an ADP of 59 according to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, making him a late fifth-round pick and putting him in the second tier of second baseman along with Alexei Ramirez and possibly Robinson Cano.

But Uggla hit under .200 versus LHP last year and continued a career pattern of fading in the second half of the season. In 2008, Uggla had a .739 OPS after the All-Star break, compared to a .978 mark before it. Major League pitchers fed Uggla a steady diet of off-speed pitches. He saw a fastball on just 50.2 percent of his at-bats last year, the second-lowest mark in the majors.

Ordinarily, these numbers would not mean too much. But in the off-season, the Marlins acquired Emilio Bonifacio, a speedy second baseman with an excellent defensive reputation. Uggla’s reputation in the field is not good (although defensive metrics show a big improvement in 2008) and his performance in the All-Star game certainly didn’t help any.

There have been all kinds of rumors about what Florida plans to do with its infield, with speculation having one or the other between Uggla and Bonifacio moving to the hot corner.

Either way, it seems unlikely that the Marlins acquired Bonifacio to be a bench player. How will Uggla react if he has to switch positions? If Bonifacio opens the season as a super-sub, will the Marlins keep Uggla on a short leash if he gets off to a slow start? How will Uggla’s arbitration case with the team affect his status?

It seems silly to have to worry about a player who has averaged 30 HR a season for his three years in the majors. But the Marlins have not been embracing Uggla here in the off-season. Besides the trade for Bonifacio, they refused to even consider a long-term contract for Uggla, despite his desire to team up with Hanley Ramirez as the team’s double play combo for years to come.

These concerns can be dismissed as idle speculation. But when it comes to a high draft pick, it seems unnecessarily risky to spend a fifth-round pick on a guy about whom his current team seems to be lukewarm.