Archive for Dan Haren

Episode 89

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Skype was being a bit wonky today so apologies in advance for any audio issues during the podcast.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 61 min of joyous analysis.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

From 2007 to 2011, Dan Haren was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over those five seasons, he averaged 5.4 WAR, winning 73 games in more than 1100 innings pitched. In fantasy baseball, Haren might not have been profiled as a classic #1 starter, but he was typically among the top 12 pitchers off the board, and if he was your #2 starter, you were pretty well set up.

In 2012, things started to go south, and they went so in a hurry. His fastball velocity was off dramatically, his strikeout rate continued to fall for the third consecutive year, and he was simply much more hittable. His results weren’t awful, but they just weren’t the old Dan Haren: 4.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 19% strikeout rate. Pretty much the definition of a spot starter. Single handedly disproving the contract year phenomena, Haren couldn’t even find a suitor as a free agent until the Nationals took a one-year flyer on him in December of 2012.

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Last week I looked at early season velocity gainers and losers. It was noted that the average fastball velocity so far is down league wide from where it was in 2012 but fairly consistent with the average fastball velocity in April 2012. But some commenters suggested that it might be useful to look at the April 2012 velocities of the guys who have seen the biggest gains and losses in velocity this year. The idea is to see if the discrepancy between 2012 velocities and April 2013 velocities is an indication of a change or just evidence that a guy tends to see his velocity dip or rise at the beginning of the year.

To gather a sample, I created a list of guys who threw 150+ innings last year and who had at least 20 innings this April. That yielded me a list of 70 pitchers. To find the significant changes in velocity, I calculated the differences in average fastball velocity between all of 2012 and April 2013. I then calculated the average difference and standard deviation to see who had made the biggest changes. Below are the guys who saw the biggest gains in velocity in April. Read the rest of this entry »

And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »

Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

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When Dan Haren was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, many referenced the handy research from the Hardball Times which presented us with some data on the statistical effect of switching leagues if you’re a pitcher. In general, the move from the NL to the AL for a pitcher was expected to have a slight negative effect almost across the board including a deleterious effect on strikeouts, ERA, walks, and HR rate. What happened after the trade as you surely recall, was that his ERA dipped to 2.87 and his HR rate dropped almost by half, but his strikeouts fell pretty dramatically. This year, Haren is apparently out to prove he deserves “Mr. Outlier” as a nickname as he’s bucking the evidence that switching from the NL to the AL is universally a bad thing.

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I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.

Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.

In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.

For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.

Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak

Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo

Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis

*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)

The trade deadline is getting very close. How close is it? Close enough that Jon Heyman has moved back into Scott Boras’ guest house. Three big names have a very good chance of being traded at the deadline, and it will affect their fantasy value in one way or another. Rumors are flying around the internet like crazy, so I apologize if new information comes out.

Jayson Werth | OF | Likely Destination: Rays

Werth would bring his wood to St. Petersburg (I would say Tampa, but I’d get in trouble for that), and likely play RF for the Rays. Then again, he could move into the DH role instead, allowing Zobrist to stay in right or pave the way for a Desmond Jennings promotion. There’s no way to predict how Werth would handle AL pitching, let along AL East pitching, but I’d like to think that his power would transfer over nicely. If he’s traded, his RBI and run totals will likely rise, while his batting average will decline. Overall value: Slightly Increased.

Roy Oswalt | SP | Likely Destination(s): Phillies, Cardinals

The rumor that’s been floated actually links Werth and Oswalt. The rumor states that the Phillies would use the package the Rays give them to trade for Oswalt. Things get hairy if Houston isn’t excited about the Rays’ prospects, but chances are they will be. Essentially, the Phillies would end up trading Jayson Werth for Oswalt and Dominic Brown. Moving from Houston to Philly would increase Oswalt’s value, due to an increased amount of run support and better defense behind him. Recent reports link the Cardinals to Oswalt, who would benefit from not having to face Pujols. Trading within the division can create problems, but the Astros and Cards could still come to an agreement. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Dan Haren | SP | Likely Destination(s): Cardinals, Tigers

Haren’s possible landing spots are still a mystery, but it seems like it will come down to St. Louis and Detroit. If he moves, I think he’ll end up with the Cardinals, where he started his career. The Cardinals best prospect they could offer the D’Backs is a few years away from the bigs, so they would likely pull the trigger if given the chance. Haren would get more wins due to increased run support, and his ERA and BABIP could benefit from some of Dave Duncan’s magic. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Why do you, the readership, care about these things? Two reasons: First, these deals could be huge in AL-only and NL-only leagues, as players could be switching leagues. Secondly, you may be holding onto a player, or targeting a player because you think (hope?) he’ll be dealt at the deadline to a team that would boost his numbers. Heck, I’ve excluded Haren from trade talks because I’m desperately hoping he’ll be dealt at the deadline, so maybe some of you have been doing something similar.

Thanks to James Niemeyer for this article’s inspiration.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Dan Haren – One of the top 10 pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts, Haren has produced a -$3 fantasy value this year according to Last Player Picked. On top of that, Haren is known as a first-half pitcher, as his ERA is nearly a full run higher after the All-Star break and his WHIP goes from 1.085 to 1.316 in the second half of the year. But Haren has been one of the unluckier pitchers around, with a .342 BABIP and a 17.0 HR/FB rate. His GB/FB ratio is nearly identical to where it was a year ago and Haren’s K/BB ratio of 5.53 is the second-best mark in baseball.

Juan Rivera – His ownership rate in CBS Sports leagues has declined from 77 percent on Opening Day to just 45% this week. Rivera got off to a slow start in April and did even worse in May. But Rivera had just a .203 BABIP last month. With Kendry Morales on the shelf, there are no worries about Rivera not getting the playing time to work out of his slump. He is likely available for little cost and could provide a nice HR bump going forward. And with a little better luck on balls in play he could prove not to be an anchor in AVG, either.

David Wright – Current owners may look at his .353 BABIP and .269 AVG and decide that Wright is no longer an elite fantasy player. Certainly, the 35.5 K% is troubling to everyone. But Wright’s HR power is back from its 2009 vacation, as his 16.4 HR/FB mark is nearly 10 percent higher from a year ago and right in line with the numbers he produced from 2004-2008. (U) ZiPS sees him getting the same 27 SB he did a season ago. So the big question is: How will Wright do in AVG here on out? A plethora of Ks killed his AVG through most of May, but Wright seems to be getting on track recently. In the tiny sample of eight games, Wright has 6 Ks in 29 ABs and a .310/.382/.517 slash line. In his previous 21 games, Wright fanned in 34 of his 80 ABs and posted a .250 AVG. If Wright can keep his strikeouts down to his career level of 20.9 percent, he is a good bet to challenge for .300 going forward.

SELL

Elvis Andrus – Despite a .267 AVG last year, Andrus excited fantasy players with his ability to steal bases. (U) ZiPS shows him finishing the 2010 season with 43 SB, which would top all of the preseason projections for him. Andrus is also projected to smash the preseason predicitions with 92 R, thanks in part to his move to the top of the order. But now is the time to sell high on the Rangers’ shortstop. His .380 BABIP screams regression. (R) ZiPS sees a .318 mark here on out and even that might be optimistic. As a GB hitter with good speed who can hit line drives, Andrus profiles as a player who would post a high BABIP. But last year he had a .305 mark in 541 PA.

Matt Garza – A four-category contributor on the first-place Rays, Garza is ready to challenge for career-bests in each fantasy category. But his K/9 is down from 8.38 a year ago to 7.11, his GB/FB ratio is a career-low 0.84 and he has a .266 BABIP. Garza has consistently posted low HR rates, so his FIP might be a better marker than xFIP, but both of those metrics are a full run above his current 3.08 ERA.

Andy Pettitte – The Yankees ace just keeps rolling along and is on pace for a 20-win season for the first time since 2003. But (R) ZiPS sees his production from here on out falling off significantly. And given Pettitte’s age (38 in June), xFIP (4.09) and injury concern, that projection should be taken seriously. Pettitte missed a start in early May due to elbow inflammation. In four starts since returning, he has a 3.08 ERA and a 4.85 K/9.

HUNCH

Torii Hunter – Last season Hunter was enjoying a career year before ending up on the DL with a groin injury which cost him 39 games. This year Hunter got off to a solid start in April but scuffled in May. After pounding fastballs last year, Hunter is below-average against them this season. I like Hunter to recapture the magic from last year and exceed his (U) ZiPS projection of .278-21-83-77-12.

Over his five full campaigns as a major league starter, Dan Haren has averaged 5.1 Wins Above Replacement per season. During the past three calendar years, Haren’s 14 WAR rank behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. The 29 year-old D-Backs ace combines power and precision, relying heavily upon high-80’s cutters, high-70’s curves and mid 80’s splitters that make Mark Grace swoon. And, with affordable salaries for the next four seasons ($8.25M this year, $12.75M each in 2011-2012, $15.5M club option for 2013), Haren’s a bargain, too.

At first blush, something appears off in Haren’s 2010 performance. In 59.2 innings pitched, the former Cardinal and Athletic has a mediocre 4.83 ERA. That’s his highest mark since he cut his teeth as a rookie with St. Louis back in 2003. Is Haren slumping? In a word, no.

In his first nine starts of the year, the righty has punched out a career-best 9.35 batters per nine innings. He’s not quite showing the Greg Maddux-esque walk rate from 2009 (1.49 BB/9), but issuing 2.26 free passes per nine frames is superb nonetheless.

Going to his cutter (31 percent) and splitter (19 percent) more often this season, Haren has induced swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 36 percent of the time. That’s the best mark of his big league tenure and tops all MLB starters logging at least 30 innings pitched.

Haren is also missing more lumber than ever: opponents have made contact with 84.6% of his in-zone pitches (88.2% MLB average) and 73.9% of his offerings overall (80.9% MLB average). Those are the lowest Z-Contact and Contact rates of Haren’s career. His in-zone contact rate is one of the 15 lowest among starters, and the overall contact rate sits in the top five.

So, why the high ERA? Haren is getting hosed by a .357 batting average on balls in play (.302 career). He has been unlucky in terms of stranding base runners and surrendering home runs on fly balls as well. Haren’s left on base rate in 2010 is 66.9, compared to a 73.1% career average, and his home run/fly ball rate is 13.1% (10.8% career average).

Haren has been his usual, filthy self–his 3.21 expected FIP (xFIP) ranks 7th among starters, trailing just Lincecum, Halladay, James Shields, Lee, Josh Johnson and Ricky Romero. Some misfortune on balls put in play, a lower-than-usual strand rate and a couple extra round-trippers have obscured another fantastic season. Don’t worry about Haren–he’s just fine. Now, about that bullpen..