-With fans and fantasy owners on the edge of their seats, Red Sox skipper signaled for “new” closer Koji Uehara to close out the Blue Jays in the top of the ninth frame at Fenway today. The 38-year-old veteran needed just 16 pitches while facing the minimum to induce two strikeouts and a ground out en route to his second save since being named Andrew Bailey’s replacement last week and his third overall save on the season. The Japanese right-hander has now made eight consecutive appearances without surrendering an earned run and has lowered his twenty-thirteen ERA and WHIP to 1.97 and 0.81 respectively. Additionally, Uehara’s K% spiked to 37.4% after fanning two Toronto batters in today’s contest. Going forward, I’d consider Uehara a borderline top-ten closing option.

Read the rest of this entry »

The middle reliever isn’t the sexiest name on your roster, but he does carry five (or more) category potential for those in traditional leagues. One night during your head-to-head matchup you may be rewarded when he has the opportunity to pick up the scab win or he gets the save chance when the tabbed closer is given the night off. Ideally, the middle reliever will maintain a humble ERA and WHIP while posting a first-class K:BB ratio. And most importantly, the reliever you are looking to add could be the handcuff to your current closer for insurance purposes.

Over the course of the next few weeks we will delve into the depths of the bullpens to identify potential middle relief targets, specifically, those relievers who appeal to owners in leagues that reward “holds.”

Joel Peralta | RP | TB

Read the rest of this entry »

• Andrew Bailey struck out two batters in a scoreless inning of work today for the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox of the International League. In doing so, Bailey achieved one of the essential goals of his rehab assignment prior to returning to the Red Sox — pitching on back-to-back days. In five rehab outings, Bailey has surrendered just one earned run while posting a 9.0 K/BB. The Red Sox reliever isn’t quite sure where his next stop will be, but based on his successful rehab appearances, “he can’t see it being much longer.” In his stead, Alfredo Aceves has done a fine job, nailing down 23-of-29 save opportunities with a 4.21 ERA (4.32 xFIP) and a 2.43 K/BB. However, Aceves’ recent struggles — two blown saves and an 11.57 ERA in the last week — could mean that Bailey will be eased back into the closer’s role sooner than later.
Read the rest of this entry »

• Jason Motte rattled off three consecutive strikeouts in the top of the ninth today en route to his 22nd save of the season and a 7-4 Cardinals victory over the Hanleywood Dodgers. Motte has quietly collected those 22 saves in 26 chances this year and has now locked down nine consecutive opportunities. The Cardinals’ ninth inning man is sporting a fine 2.72 ERA (3.37 xFIP) and a 3.58 K/BB (25.9 K%, 7.2 BB%) on the year.
Read the rest of this entry »

• Another day, another turn of events in Chicago. Apparently on Wednesday the Cubs’ coaching staff determined that Carlos Marmol would regain the closer role as soon as the opportunity presented itself. That opportunity came today, with the Cubs leading the Red Sox 3-0 heading into the top of the ninth frame. As promised, Sveum called upon Marmol to nail down the ninth for the Cubbies. The outing wasn’t pretty, but after a hit, an error, a strikeout and a walk, the former Cubs catcher snuck his way out of a bases loaded jam to earn his third save of the season — and his first since May 2nd. Based on the skipper’s comments, Marmol is the closer to own again in Wrigleyville and fantasy baseball owners should be racing to the waiver wire to check on his availability.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Chris Perez earned his third save in as many days against the division rival Detroit Tigers, giving him 16 on the young season and tying him for the Major League lead with Baltimore’s Jim Johnson. Due to some of the struggles with his K/BB (1.50) and xFIP (5.01) in 2011, some speculated that Vinnie Pestano could be a candidate to succeed Perez in the ninth inning should he experience the same issues. However, with a slightly improved K/BB (2.57) and xFIP (3.88) through twenty appearances and 16 consecutive handshakes since blowing his first chance of the season, Perez should continue to get the ninth inning call. Don’t lose track of Pestano though, as he will be waiting on the door step with the superior K/BB (4.33) and xFIP (2.64) should Perez lose control.
Read the rest of this entry »

To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

Read the rest of this entry »

Any efforts on the part of the Cleveland Indians to trade closer Kerry Wood got a little more difficult on Saturday, as the 33-year-old was placed on the DL with a finger blister. It’s the second time Wood has been sidelined this season, as the erstwhile Cub was shelved until early May with a strained right lat muscle in his back.

Since signing a two-year deal with the Tribe prior to 2009, Wood has earned around 15-$16 million while contributing 0.2 Wins Above Replacement. He was lights-out during his last season in Chicago (11.4 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.07 xFIP, 2.2 WAR), but Wood’s control has been mediocre in Cleveland — he’s got 9.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 4.36 xFIP in 75 innings since transitioning to the AL.

There’s still a chance that he gets traded — Wood could be back before the July 31st deadline, and there’s always the possibility of an August waiver deal. If Wood passes through waivers unclaimed in August, the Indians would be free to trade him to any club. If Wood gets claimed, Cleveland could: A.) revoke the waiver request, B.) make a deal within two business days with the club making the claim or they could C.) let the claiming team take Wood and his salary for a twenty grand fee (thanks, Cots Baseball Contracts and MLBTradeRumors).

With Wood out, Chris Perez is expected to take what save chances the Indians get. The former Hurricane, picked up from the St. Louis Cardinals (along with RHP Jess Todd) in the July 2009 Mark DeRosa deal, is available in nearly four-fifths of Yahoo leagues. Perez’s gleaming ERA and past as a top 100 prospect might lead some to think he’s breaking out in a big way, but the 25-year-old righty remains a work in progress.

In the minors, Perez used his mid-90’s fastball and low-to-mid-80’s slider to rack up 12 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he also issued a whopping six walks per nine frames, leaving him with a good-not-great 3.86 FIP in 113.1 IP. The story has been much the same in 133 big league innings over the 2008-2010 seasons — Perez has punched out over a batter per inning (9.41 K/9), but he has handed out a free pass every other frame (4.53 BB/9). He has also been a fly ball-centric pitcher, getting grounders just 35.7% of the time and serving up 1.15 HR/9. Overall, Perez has a 4.44 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP, a performance that has been exactly replacement-level.

That’s not to say that Perez won’t fare better in the future, but his current 2.62 ERA is based mostly on a .236 BABIP, as opposed to some marked improvement on his part. Perez gets ninth inning responsibilities for now, and he could keep them if Wood is swapped before July 31st or in a later August deal. But, without a change in Perez’s peripheral stats, decline is likely — ZiPS projects 9.64 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

According to Tom Singer of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. The 32 year-old Wood, who inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal prior to the 2009 season, posted just 0.4 WAR last year as his walk rate ballooned and batters were reluctant to chase his stuff out of the strike zone. Because of the missed time, Wood has no chance of having his $11 million option for the 2011 season vest (he needs to appear in 55 games for that to happen).

With Wood out, save ops will go to 24 year-old Chris Perez. The former Miami Hurricane came to Cleveland via St. Louis, as part of last June’s Mark DeRosa trade that also netted the Indians Jess Todd.

A 6-4, 230 pound righty, Perez uses a mid-90’s fastball and a hard, mid-80’s slider to wreak havoc out of the ‘pen. He punched out 12 batters per nine innings in the minors, and has 10.03 K/9 in 98.2 career big league frames. Perez’s heater has been worth +0.39 runs per 100 pitches, with the slider checking in at +0.43.

Control, however, has proven elusive. Perez walked six hitters per nine on the farm, and he has issued 4.47 BB/9 in the majors. As you might expect, he doesn’t do a great job of getting ahead in the count (his 57.9 first-pitch strike percentage is about average). Opposing batters haven’t been especially giddy to chase his pitches off the plate, as Perez has a career 21.3 outside-swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Homers are another possible problem. Perez has burned worms just 36.8 percent of the time over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and has surrendered 1.19 dingers per nine innings.

CHONE and ZiPS give similar forecasts for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 9.82 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.13 FIP
ZiPS: 10.07 K/9, 4.62 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

If he’s still available, Perez should be picked up in all leagues. He’s going to whiff a ton of batters, though he could occasionally give owners indigestion due to the walks.