Archive for charlie morton

If the All-Star break is a momentum-stopper, then this week’s exercise of finding meaning in back-to-back surprising starts could be moot. Charlie Morton, who entered the break with consecutive disappointing efforts, will roll into Wednesday night’s start at Coors Field against the Rockies having not pitched in a game in 13 days. Frankie Montas may have had some success against the Indians and Astros before the break, but Tuesday night’s outing at the Rangers comes after a 15-day hiatus.

Still, taking a peek at these pitchers’ two most recent starts can give us some context for evaluating their upcoming assignments. If Montas breezes through his start against the Rangers, who rank 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, can we merely chalk it up to a favorable matchup after he held his own against two of the top six offenses against righties? And if Morton flubs his first start of the second half, should we blame it on the Coors Effect?
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I’m not one to make excuses, but man this has been rough this year. With pitching injuries, the fluctuation of even moderate starters and the advent of the 10-day disabled list, trying to find viable candidates for these kinds of columns has been…..let’s just say a bit difficult. Thanks for hanging in there all season, as we’ve picked up some steam lately. Be sure to check out the #2xSP hashtag on Twitter if you don’t see this column, as I’ll list my recommendations there as well.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 15)

25-25 record
4.82 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.2 K/BB
1.47 WHIP
28 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Mike Foltynewicz – 36.3% ESPN – @PHI (85), v. MIA (96)

I’ve been a big fan of Folty’s all season long, as he’s taken a really nice step forward as a key cog in future Braves rotations. He’s improved every year in red and blue ERA-wise, and has stayed fairly consistent with strikeouts and walks while tightening up most other aspects of his game. The WHIP is still a bit concerning at 1.39, but he’s been prone to some really strong streaks this year. The best part here is that Folty also misses out on the mid-week series against the Dodgers — the No. 2 offense in baseball (111 wRC+). Read the rest of this entry »

The leaderboards at FanGraphs is a fun place to poke around. Behold this list of pitchers:

What do they all have in common? Aside from having thrown at least 20 innings, these are the only hurlers in baseball who rank in the upper half of the stats I first look to when evaluating pitchers. Namely, they all boast better than average K-BB%, GB%, Z-Contact%, and swinging strike rates. There are some obviously great pitchers on this list but I’m not interested in talking about Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, or Carlos Martinez. Though if you’re a little frustrated with Lester or CarMar, I both empathize and suggest exercising a little patience. Rather, I’d like to dive deeper into some of the list’s lesser-owned and lesser-known players who won’t cost nearly as much to acquire.  Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9.

Erik Bedard – After losing his first four decisions, Bedard has quietly put up some monster numbers in his last five starts. In that span, he’s 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA with 28 Ks and 7 BB in 33 IP. While his curveball may not be the unhittable pitch it was back in his pre-injured heyday, he still has an impressive 30.1 O-Swing%. Bedard has a deep repertoire and throws all of his pitches for strikes. He has two home starts this week against East Coast teams. It all adds up to a must-start week.

Madison Bumgarner – Each pitching staff has the guy that seemingly gets no run support and Bumgarner fills that role on the Giants. The offense has provided him with an average run support of 2.27 in his 10 starts, which explains how in his last six games, all Quality Starts, Bumgarner is 1-3. If he can’t get wins when he’s pitching well, what happens if he falters? This week he goes up against two pitchers with a combined 11-4 record this year. And with the Giants now without their cleanup hitter, it seems like a good time to sit the unlucky youngster.

Fausto Carmona – If you look at the WHIP leaders, you’ll see a nice collection of the game’s top pitchers and this year’s success stories. You’ll also find Carmona. So far this season, Carmona is 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA. And this is with a 1.18 WHIP. The last three starts have not been kind, as he has allowed 16 ER in 20.2 IP, thanks in part to 4 HR allowed. This week he goes up against Toronto and Texas, two of the better HR-hitting clubs in the AL. And his start against the Blue Jays is in Toronto, where the Jays have hit 30 HR in 23 games. Keep Carmona on your bench this week.

Charlie Morton – If you haven’t already read it, check out Cameron’s piece on Morton. Basically, Morton has revamped his approach and is now death on RHB. Some in the comments section even compared him to Doc Halladay. I don’t trust pitchers with BB/9 over 4 and Morton’s currently sits at 4.21 BB/9 after nine starts. This week he goes up against the Mets and Phillies, two teams that can easily put five LHB into their lineups. This seems like a week for the wheels to come off the Morton bandwagon so give him a spot on the bench if you can.

Ervin Santana – Everyone seems to be down on Santana because he’s not the pitcher he was in 2008. But the reality is he’s still a pretty good pitcher. The stat that jumps off the page is his 3.59 K/BB ratio, which goes a long way in explaining how both his FIP (3.41) and xFIP (3.52) are lower than his ERA (3.95). In his last two starts, Santana is 2-0 and in 15 IP he’s allowed just 1 ER with 2 BB and 13 Ks. This week he goes up against the Royals and Yankees, two teams struggling after hot starts. Get Santana active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lester, Cahill, Billingsley, Kennedy, Wilson, Carpenter, Colon, McClellan, Latos, Arrieta, Vogelsong, T. Hudson, Harang, Davis, Wood, Narveson, Marquis, Holland, McDonald, Penny, Blackburn, Happ, Hochevar, Dickey, Fister, Gee, Francis, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Volstad, Talbot, Sonnanstine, A. Rodriguez, J. Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Garland – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 8.38 ERA, 2.379 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 9 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 0 ER
Jimenez – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER
Porcello – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 8 IP, 0 ER
Volquez – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 9.35 ERA, 1.731 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 ER

In today’s edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we look at three starters who aren’t as good as they seem to be.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had snagged an under-the-radar starter when the club acquired Charlie Morton (along with prospects Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez) in a June 2009 trade that landed Nate McLouth in Atlanta.

A lanky, 6-4 right-hander who displayed drastically improved peripherals at the Triple-A level (150.2 IP, 8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), Morton made 18 decent starts for the Bucs after the swap. In 97 innings, the Braves’ third-round pick in the 2002 draft posted rates of 5.75 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP, getting grounders at a 49 percent rate. Heading into 2010, the projection systems viewed Morton as a good bet to be an above-average big league starter:

ZiPS: 3.99 FIP
CHONE: 4.16 FIP
FANS: 4.16 FIP

A quick look at the 26-year-old’s stat sheet suggests he’s pitching more like Charlie Brown. Tossing 31.1 innings, Charlie has a 9.19 ERA. Good grief.

Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons for optimism. Using low-90’s heat, a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup, Morton has punched out 7.76 batters per nine innings with 2.87 BB/9. His xFIP is far less frightening than his ERA, at 4.00.

So why the ERA high enough to make manager John Russell turn greener than the Pirate Parrot? Morton has suffered from a .389 batting average on balls in play. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the yard a whopping 21.9 percent of the time. Morton’s career rate is 11%, which is right around the MLB average as well. And his strand rate is absurdly low: just 46.8 percent of base runners have failed to cross home plate, the lowest figure among starters by a wide margin.

Morton clearly won’t continue to allow so many base runners to score, but he has experienced some problems pitching with men on during his big league career. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Morton’s splits with the bases empty and with runners on base, as well as the NL average for pitchers in 2009:

And here’s the change in Morton’s performance, compared to the average for NL pitchers in 2009:

On average, pitchers perform worse with runners on base. Last year, NL pitchers saw an increase of eight points in batting average and 24 points in on-base percentage with men on base compared to bases empty situations. Pitchers allow slightly fewer extra-base hits with men on, but they strike out a few less batters and walk more batters as well.

Even compared to the average pitcher, Morton has scuffled with men on base. His K rate has dipped considerably more than the average. Charlie has allowed plenty of extra-base hits with runners on, too, compared to bases empty situations (+74 points of ISO).

It’s true that strand rates can vary among pitchers, though numbers straying greatly from the 70-72% MLB average are likely to regress back toward the mean. These stats indicate that Morton does have problems with runners on base. But, even if one concedes that he struggles out of the stretch (some think he could be tipping his pitches), Morton’s strand rate is going to rise a good deal. The lowest strand rate among starters in 2009 (minimum 100 innings) was 59.3%, by Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Morton to post a 3.99 FIP, with 6.49 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9. NL-only players willing to endure ridicule from fellow owners (you picked up WHO? Hah!) could get a solid starter with some upside in Morton.

Well, this never happens!

There are no adjustments to the two-start pitchers from Friday. Since this edition usually talks about the new additions from Friday, instead this week let’s focus on the two-start pitchers at the bottom of the barrel, the ones started by the fewest amount of fantasy owners, to see if there is a diamond in the rough.

5. Brad Bergesen (started in 4% of CBS Sports leagues) – Last year in 19 starts in the majors, Bergesen had a 1.55 GB/FB ratio and a nifty 2.34 BB/9, which led to a 3.43 ERA. But Bergesen had a 75.2 LOB% and an 8.3 HR/FB rate, which led to both a higher FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.42). In his two starts in 2010, he has a 0.47 GB/FB ratio and a 3.52 BB/9. Combined with a 15.8 HR/FB mark, Bergesen’s ERA is an ugly 11.74 in 7.2 IP. It is understandable that owners are reluctant to activate him for two starts this week. But if Bergesen can recapture his ground ball rate, he is worthy of a roster spot.

4. Kyle Kendrick (2%) – A member of the Phillies’ rotation, if Kendrick can give the team innings, he has an excellent chance of picking up wins. But his K rate is poor, his WHIP is nothing special and his ERA is trending upward. The only thing Kendrick has going for him is the chance for wins. And how long will he be in the rotation, especially once Joe Blanton returns from the disabled list?

3. Scott Olsen (1%) – In both 2007 and 2008, Olsen had identical 4.95 xFIPs in seasons where he made 33 starts each. Last year, Osen was limited to 11 games, but he had a 4.91 xFIP. It seems pretty apparent where Olsen’s true talent level is. Olsen has some upside in Ks but he is not a mixed league option except in deep leagues.

2. Charlie Morton (1%) – Coming into the year, some viewed Morton as a potential deep sleeper candidate. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Morton has a 12-4 record with a 2.15 ERA. He allowed 44 BB , picked up 134 Ks and allowed just 3 HR in 150.2 IP. But Morton has been pounded in two starts this season. The big problem has been the gopher ball, as he allowed 4 HR in 9.1 IP, and a .429 BABIP is not helping, either. While his ERA is 13.50, his xFIP is 3.34. Morton has a 9.00 K/BB ratio and despite two ugly starts, he is an intriguing option with upside.

1. Craig Stammen (0%) – Okay, I admit I am intrigued by a pitcher who absolutely no one wants in their starting lineup. But unlike Morton, there is little to recommend Stammen. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, he has a 5-7 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/9. On the plus side, Stammen has done a nice job of getting ground balls in his brief major league career. He has a 1.54 GB/FB ratio in 112 IP, continuing his trend from the minors (54.3 GB%) of keeping the ball down. It is not that Stammen has no chance, but a guy with a 3.94 K/9 ratio has zero room for error.

Charlie Morton never lit up prospect lists nor was he once deemed an impact player in the Atlanta Braves minor league system. Last year he found himself traded away to the Pirates in the Nate McLouth deal and he made 18 starts in Pittsburgh. These 18 starts were encouraging and Morton figures to slot into the back end of the Pirates starting rotation this year. He will be 26-years-old this season and now it’s time for Morton to run with a consistent starting opportunity at the big league level.

It appears that Morton is ready for this opportunity. He steadily climbed through the Braves system and since 2008 he has mightily improved his once very shaky control. Morton overcame plaguing walk rates that consistently sat in the mid fours and a few seasons where he split or spent more time in the bull pen than in a starting role. He’s also displayed a good knack for keeping the ball on the ground. Morton’s sinking fastball has induced good ground ball rates (58% and a silly 63% in AAA during 08 and 09) in the upper minors and big leagues.

Morton’s recently harnessed his command in Triple-A where he posted a 3.28 BB/9 rate in 2008 and a 2.23 BB/9 in 2009. He’s also shown a strong tendency of preventing the home run. In 2008 he didn’t surrender a single home run in 79 Triple-A innings. His average home run rate per nine over eight minor league seasons in 0.5 and save for a brutal 2006 season (1.26 HR/9) he has never had a HR/9 rate above 0.5 in the minor leagues. Morton’s ground ball and home run prevention tendencies are quite appealing.

In 2008 Morton made his major league debut in Atlanta and it didn’t go so well. He was afforded 16 appearances (15 starts) and he was tarred and feathered for a 5.14 FIP in 75 innings. His improved control disappeared (4.94 BB/9) and for the first time in a long time he surrendered more home runs than usual (1.08 HR/9). His .304 BABIP was not out of line but his 60.7 LOB% figured to improve.

Morton was dispatched back to Triple-A to start 2009 and he made the most of the opportunity in 10 starts before the trade. He had a 2.94 FIP and he turned in his best walk rate (2.23). Then came the trade to Pittsburgh and this time around Morton prevented the home run in the majors like he had in the minors (0.65 HR/9) and exhibited passable control (3.71 BB/9) with a 5.75 strikeout per nine that could use more improvement. His BABIP and LOB% looked very normal in Pittsburgh. He had a 4.15 FIP and 4.55 ERA. But that ERA would stand at 3.66 if you subtract his abysmal one inning start in Chicago on August 14 where he surrendered ten earned runs.

Morton’s strong ground ball rates have translated to the big leagues as well. During his rough go round in Atlanta he still had a 50% ground ball rate and last year in Pittsburgh it sat at 49%. It appears that he’s got the ability to have an above-average ground ball rate and possesses an average to slightly above-average ceiling on controlling his pitches within the strike zone in the big leagues.

The sinking fastball Morton utilized in 2009 has strikingly similar movement and velocity to the fastball that fellow sinkerballer Mike Pelfrey used in 2009. Pelfrey’s ground ball rate was 51% last year and is 50% over his big league career and the similiar movement and velocity on their pitches is no coincidence. Their sinkers stay on the ground.

The Pirates had a solid defense in 2009 that helped their pitchers out. Their team UZR checked in at 30.1 but there was a lot of turnover on the field last year. Pitchers will miss the slick fielding Jack Wilson up the middle but Ronny Cedeno appears close to an average defender at shortstop (according to UZR but The Fans Scouting Report thinks he’s better) and Akinori Iwamura is slightly above average at second base. Pirates pitchers better be hoping last years nasty injury has no effect on his defense. Andy Laroche is a defensive asset at the hot corner and Andrew McCutchen will be a solid defender in center field this year with an improved Lastings Milledge in left. There are definitely some capable gloves that will be helping out Morton and Pirates pitchers in 2010.

The downsides with Morton are his lackluster strikeout rate and the troubles he has had with left handed batters at the big league level. Morton will be no top of the rotation starter by any means but his true strikeout skill may lie between the 5.75 K/9 in the majors and 7.65 and 8.20 K/9 rates he had in Triple-A over the past two seasons. Morton has been dinged for not having a big out pitch. Baseball America did rate his curveball as the best in the Braves system in 2005 and last year in Pittsburgh it had a nifty pitch value at 4.1 runs above average. This is an encouraging sign.

Morton’s platoon split thus far at the big league level is a concern. Last year lefties had a .923 OPS against him in the big leagues and a .939 OPS versus him in 2008 with Atlanta. Things check out nicely against right handers.

After sifting through Morton’s splits in the minor leagues (dating back to 2005) there was nothing alarming about his performances against lefties. His absence of a third pitch may be a big factor with his struggles against lefties at the big league level but it’s possible the numbers may even out as the sample (321 MLB at-bats) increases over time.

Morton’s sinking fastball, low home run rate, and improved control make for an intriguing package. He held his own in the big leagues last year and there’s reason for optimism in 2010 especially behind a solid defense. He’s been overlooked and if his numbers improve against lefties his value can only shoot up.

See how he fares at the start of the season and if you’re in need of a starting pitcher Morton could be your guy especially during a hot streak. He’ll likely be available in all formats and could become a helpful starter on your team that seemingly came out of nowhere.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.

Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.

John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.

Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.

Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.

Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.

David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.

Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.

Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.

Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.

Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.

Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.

Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

Scott Baker – Home runs have been the downfall of Baker this season. In his first 10 games of the season, Baker allowed 15 HR in 59.2 IP. But since then, Baker has permitted just 5 HR in his last 50.2 innings. He is 5-1 in that stretch with a 3.86 ERA. Make sure Baker is active for his two road starts this week. Away from the Metrodome, Baker’s ERA is a full run lower than his home mark.

Mat Latos – Despite some trouble with the gopher ball (4 HR in 16.2 IP), Latos has been very impressive in his first three starts. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and is averaging 7.02 K/9. Latos’ fastball averages 94.7 and he relies upon it heavily, throwing it over 72 percent of the time. Get him on your roster and active for his home starts this week against the Braves and Mets.

Charlie Morton – Six of his first eight starts for the Pirates have come on the road. This week the people of Pittsburgh will get to see their recent acquisition live two times. In his first two appearances at PNC, Morton has allowed just three runs in 14 IP. Morton has been solid overall for the Pirates, posting a FIP nearly identical to his ERA and averaging 6.52 K/9. Most likely still available on the waiver wire in your league, Morton is a potential keeper for the rest of the season and a nice play for his two home starts this week.

Brad Penny – In his last seven outings, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.31 ERA. He is not getting better with regular work and depending on what the Red Sox do later today, with the trade deadline looming, his rotation spot could disappear, too. So, do not expect two starts from Penny and if he does go twice, do not expect performances that will help your fantasy team.

Randy Wells – His last two full seasons in Triple-A, Wells allowed BABIPs of .345 and .325 with identical 69.5 percent strand rates each year. So, this year in the majors he has a .278 BABIP and an 80.6 percent strand rate. This seems like as good a week as any for the luck to run out, with road starts at the Great American Ball Park and at Coors Field. Put him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Greinke, Cain, J. Vazquez, Haren, J. Johnson, Lackey, Kershaw, Chamberlain, Duke, Kazmir, Harang, Kuroda, Feldman, B. Anderson, Hochevar, Bergesen, Parra, Moyer, Kawakami, Tillman, Hammel, Contreras, Rowland-Smith, Hampton, Stuaffer, G. Gonzalez, French, Holland, Laffey, Petit, Mock, Martin

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 16 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to sit. 13.50 ERA, 0 K (!), 2.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cecil – Advised to start. W, 0.64 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Gaudin – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to sit. 4.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.27 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. W, 10.24 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.76 WHIP (2)