Archive for Casey Kotchman

We’re down to about the last seven weeks of regular season baseball and entering into a period where managers start to tweak their teams in reaction to categorical standings (thinking rotisserie style, that is). Due to any combination of injury, ineffectiveness, or incompetence, you may be looking for a little lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire to boost a category here or there. What follows are more deeper-league options, but a couple of these guys even might provide value in standard league formats depending on where you need a shot in the arm.

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In today’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, all three players’ names start with a “C.” So that’s something.

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We’ll do a tiered approach here. It’s what we do.

Ervin Santana | SP | Los Angeles (54% owned)
While the ownership numbers may be perplexing (he’s owned in all of my leagues), there’s reason for hope when it comes to the other Santana (soon to be the other other Santana). Most of the signs are looking good for Santana – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and he’s even sporting a career-high ground ball rate. The only worrisome thing might be the reduced effectiveness of his slider as measured by his linear weights. It can’t be the half-MPH that he’s lost on the pitch, can it? In any case, he’s benefiting from a career-best 38.9% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, which doesn’t seem like it can continue when seen in the face of his career 58.4% rate. Perhaps people will start whiffing a little more on his pitches in the zone (98.8% !). It’s a strange mix right now, but since he’s healthy he should be on more rosters.

Casey Kotchman | 1B | Seattle (6% owned)
Paradoxically, it took a move to one of the toughest parks in the league for Kotchman to break out his career-best ISO (.310). Of course, that number only stabilizes around 450 plate appearances, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. Instead, let’s look at the numbers that stabilize the quickest: swing rates. Because they are based on pitch-by-pitch data, swing rates have a larger sample size in the early going. Kotchman is swinging at a career-low rate (35% this year, 45.4% career), and this has lead to the best K/BB ratio of his career (1.5). The strikeout percentage is below 10% and good for 25th-best in the league in the early going. That sort of ueber-patience seems to be serving him well. Don’t buy into the power, but the patience may end up leading to a good batting average and good run production, given the dearth of offense in Seattle.

Bud Norris | SP | Houston (5% owned)
(I know, the tiers are a little off.) Ever since Cistulli wrote this masterpiece about Norris’ nice outside-the-zone whiff rate, he has been an interesting character here in the green-and-eggshell. The secondary statistics for Norris are actually sort of frightening – he has an otherworldly strikeout rate (14.09 K/9), a disastrous walk rate (8.22 BB/9), and an insert-bad-adjective here groundball rate (23.8%). Group these rates with his zero HR/9 and you have an early-season special – an ERA (3.52) between his FIP (2.60) and his xFIP (4.03). That might be a strange feat – if it were to happen over a full season. I’d say some of those fly balls will begin to leave Minute Maid park shortly and that the xFIP is the number to follow, but that’s still a decent number that deserves attention. Maybe Norris will split the difference between his good start and bad start the next time he climbs the hill.

Ownership numbers courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

While it’s not yet official, a trade sending 1B Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for utility man Bill Hall is expected to be announced soon. All of the details aren’t in: Boston could also receive a prospect and some cash in the transaction. For now, let’s focus on how the deal impacts Kotchman for the 2010 season.

Twenty-seven in February, Kotchman has devolved from a prized talent in the Angels’ farm system to a singles-hitter at a position where power rules the day.

The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft displayed exceptional strike zone control in the minors, walking in 10.7 percent of his plate appearances and whiffing just 9.1 percent while posting a .324/.406/.492 triple-slash.

Kotchman’s power potential was subject to much debate, however. Baseball America was hopeful: in its 2005 Prospect Handbook, BA predicted that the lefty batter with a silky-smooth swing would “hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learn[ed] to lift the ball.” That pop didn’t manifest in the minors, though, with Kotchman’s season-best HR total topping out at ten and his career ISO on the farm standing at .168.

After cups of coffee with the Angels in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 91 wRC+ in 271 PA), Kotchman missed nearly the entire 2006 season while batting mononucleosis. He finally got a shot at everyday playing time in 2007, and the results were fairly promising. In 508 PA, Kotchman compiled a 121 wRC+. He controlled the zone (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%), while actually flashing some extra-base thump as well, with a .172 ISO.

Since then, Casey has been far from mighty at the bat:

In 2008, Kotchman was mid-season trade bait used to acquire Mark Teixeira from Atlanta. Between the Angels and the Braves, Kotchman hit a mundane .272/.328/.410 in 573 PA. His wRC+ dipped to 96. Kotchman’s walk rate fell to 6.4 percent, as his percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone spiked from 36.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2008 (the MLB average has ranged from 49-52% over the past few seasons).

Last offseason, we noted Kotchman’s disturbing propensity to chop the ball into the infield dirt. His near-53 percent groundball rate was commensurate with some of the speedier players in the game. As a plodding first baseman, Kotchman stuck out like a sore thumb.

Unfortunately, Kotchman continued to put the ball on the ground a ton in 2009. His 51.4 ground ball rate was highest among first basemen with 350+PA. As a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum with a career 2.7 Speed Score, Kotchman isn’t doing much with those grounders. His batting average on grounders was .185 in 2009, and his career average is .188. For reference, the A.L. average last season was .240.

Traded again mid-season in 2009 (this time to Boston for Adam LaRoche), Kotchman batted just .268/.339/.382 with a 92 wRC+ in 431 PA. His walk rate did bounce back to 10.4 percent, but his ISO declined from 2008’s already mild .137 to .114. Overall, MLB first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 in 2009, with a .206 ISO.

Kotchman just doesn’t pull the ball with any authority. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Kotchman’s spray charts over the past three seasons. Focus on that last number, sOPS+. It compares a batter’s performance to that of the league average in a given split. 100 is average, above 100 is above average and below 100 is below-average.

Over the past three seasons, the average AL lefty batter has pulled the ball about 26 percent of the time, slugging .756 on pulled balls. Kotchman has pulled the ball about 31 percent of the time. But his slugging percentage is just .603. As this spray chart from Trip Somers’ site shows, nothin’ much happens when Casey pulls the ball:

Moving to Seattle won’t do Kotchman’s bat any favors. While Safeco isn’t total death to lefties like it is to righty batters, it still punishes southpaw hitters. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco has depressed lefty home runs by five percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009.

Kotchman brings some value to the table with his glove (career +4.4 UZR/150), but it’s hard to recommend him in fantasy leagues. Maybe he’ll finally start to pull the ball with some force and make good on those scouting prognostications. But there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that’s going to be the case. CHONE projects a .274/.339/.405 line next season. You can do better than that at first base.

The Atlanta Braves had grandiose visions of contention when the club acquired switch-hitting force Mark Teixeira from the Rangers in July of 2007. Atlanta surrendered a king’s ransom of prospects (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones), but the Braves were intent on making a playoff run and then attempting to sign the former Georgia Tech star to a long term-deal.

That pennant chase never materialized in either 2007 or 2008, and when it became apparent that Teixeira was intent on testing the free agent waters, the Braves were faced with the decision to either let Teixeira walk and collect compensatory draft picks or re-package him and hope for the best in another deadline deal. Atlanta decided to take the immediate help, shipping Teixeira to the Angels in exchange for relief prospect Stephen Marek and first baseman Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was once himself a top prospect, and will be under team control for a few more seasons. The question that will be asked today, however, is this: is a couple more seasons of Kotchman at first really a virtue?

A career .325/.407/.493 hitter in the minor leagues, Kotchman has long been noted for his sweet left-handed swing. The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft had some questions regarding his power ceiling (.168 ISO), but his combination of contact ability (10.6 K%) and patience (12.3 BB%) was enough for Baseball America to rank him very high on its annual top prospect lists:

Kotchman’s BA Love (overall ranking on top 100 prospects list):

2002: 22nd
2003: 13th
2004: 15th
2005: 6th

The 6-3, 215 pounder would get a small amount of playing time for the Angels in 2004 and 2005:

2004: 128 PA, .224/.289/.276, 5.7 BB%, 9.5 K%, .052 ISO, 17.9 LD%, .248 BABIP
2005: 143 PA, .278/.352/.484, 10.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, .206 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .277 BABIP

Kotchman turned in a very mild season at hitter-friendly Salt Lake City in 2005 (.289/.372/.441), but his performance in the big leagues that year gave hope that he was finally starting to find his power stroke.

Instead of breaking out, however, Kotchman would find himself on the sidelines for almost the entirety of the 2006 season. After a very sluggish start (.152/.221/.215 in 88 PA), he was diagnosed with Mono and did not play in the majors again after May 8th.

Now 24 and running his organization’s patience a little thin, Kotchman was faced with competition from Dallas McPherson and Robb Quinlan for the starting first base job in 2007. Kotchman got the nod, and turned in what appeared to be a very promising campaign. He batted .296/.372/.467, showing the doubles-and-walks approach that made him so highly regarded. Kotchman’s .172 ISO was adequate for a first baseman, and he actually walked more than he struck out (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%). Still, there were some caution signs that called into question the repeatability of his performance. Kotchman’s 16 LD% was pretty darned low, meaning that his BABIP should have been about .280 instead of his actual .308 mark. Adjusting for that difference, his line “should” have been .268/.344/.429. Also, his groundball rate was very high for a player at a power position (50.6 GB%).

Kotchman’s performance did indeed take a turn for the worse in 2008, as he hit a middle infielder-like .272/.328/.410 between the Angels and the Braves. His walk rate dipped considerably (6.4 BB%), though his K rate fell to a career-low 7.4%. Kotchman’s ISO was a paltry .137; only Daric Barton and Ryan Garko exhibited less sock from the first base position. Continuing a career-long trend, Kotchman hit groundballs at an alarming clip for a man playing a power-oriented position. His 52.7 groundball percentage was the 9th-highest among all qualified major league players.

For the sake of comparison, let’s take a look at the five guys ranked directly in front of and directly behind Kotchman in terms of GB%. In addition to their groundball rates, I included their baserunning scores from Bill James Online. The stat measures a player’s total adeptness on the basepaths: how well the player advances from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, and 1st to home compared to the league averages, as well as how much value the player brings in the stolen base department (only high-percentage base thieves receive credit).

Ryan Theriot 56.6 GB% (+10)
Delmon Young 55.2 GB% (-3)
Michael Bourn 53.9 GB% (+27)
Fred Lewis 53.9 GB% (+13)
Cristian Guzman 52.9 GB% (-4)
Casey Kotchman 52.7 GB% (-22)
Jacoby Ellsbury 51.7 GB% (+40)
Hunter Pence 51.7 GB% (-13)
Willy Taveras 51.5 GB% (+70)(!)
Russell Martin 51.1 GB% (+14)
Randy Winn 51.1 GB% (+41)

One of these things is not like the others. Okay, Young (whom we’ve covered before) and Pence don’t really belong either, but the overwhelming majority of the players who often chop the ball into the dirt have the speed and baserunning prowess to make it a viable strategy. Putting the ball on the ground isn’t a bad idea if you’re a burner, but when you’re a slow-footed first baseman who might not be able to beat the beer vendor down the base line, it’s probably not sound strategy to hit grounders at a rate commensurate to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Kotchman will turn 26 this offseason and still may have some development left, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will make good on the high hopes that prospect mavens had for him a few years back. He plays a slick first base (+13 in John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system), but an underpowered player at a premium offensive position just isn’t an asset. The average major league first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 this past season. Realistically, that’s about the best that one could hope for from Kotchman this upcoming season, and even that sort of line would entail significant improvement in his walk rate and a decrease in his number of groundballs hit. I think we may need to revise Ernest Thayer’s classic baseball poem:

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville— mighty Casey has grounded out.