(Un)Mighty Casey at the Bat

The Atlanta Braves had grandiose visions of contention when the club acquired switch-hitting force Mark Teixeira from the Rangers in July of 2007. Atlanta surrendered a king’s ransom of prospects (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones), but the Braves were intent on making a playoff run and then attempting to sign the former Georgia Tech star to a long term-deal.

That pennant chase never materialized in either 2007 or 2008, and when it became apparent that Teixeira was intent on testing the free agent waters, the Braves were faced with the decision to either let Teixeira walk and collect compensatory draft picks or re-package him and hope for the best in another deadline deal. Atlanta decided to take the immediate help, shipping Teixeira to the Angels in exchange for relief prospect Stephen Marek and first baseman Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was once himself a top prospect, and will be under team control for a few more seasons. The question that will be asked today, however, is this: is a couple more seasons of Kotchman at first really a virtue?

A career .325/.407/.493 hitter in the minor leagues, Kotchman has long been noted for his sweet left-handed swing. The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft had some questions regarding his power ceiling (.168 ISO), but his combination of contact ability (10.6 K%) and patience (12.3 BB%) was enough for Baseball America to rank him very high on its annual top prospect lists:

Kotchman’s BA Love (overall ranking on top 100 prospects list):

2002: 22nd
2003: 13th
2004: 15th
2005: 6th

The 6-3, 215 pounder would get a small amount of playing time for the Angels in 2004 and 2005:

2004: 128 PA, .224/.289/.276, 5.7 BB%, 9.5 K%, .052 ISO, 17.9 LD%, .248 BABIP
2005: 143 PA, .278/.352/.484, 10.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, .206 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .277 BABIP

Kotchman turned in a very mild season at hitter-friendly Salt Lake City in 2005 (.289/.372/.441), but his performance in the big leagues that year gave hope that he was finally starting to find his power stroke.

Instead of breaking out, however, Kotchman would find himself on the sidelines for almost the entirety of the 2006 season. After a very sluggish start (.152/.221/.215 in 88 PA), he was diagnosed with Mono and did not play in the majors again after May 8th.

Now 24 and running his organization’s patience a little thin, Kotchman was faced with competition from Dallas McPherson and Robb Quinlan for the starting first base job in 2007. Kotchman got the nod, and turned in what appeared to be a very promising campaign. He batted .296/.372/.467, showing the doubles-and-walks approach that made him so highly regarded. Kotchman’s .172 ISO was adequate for a first baseman, and he actually walked more than he struck out (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%). Still, there were some caution signs that called into question the repeatability of his performance. Kotchman’s 16 LD% was pretty darned low, meaning that his BABIP should have been about .280 instead of his actual .308 mark. Adjusting for that difference, his line “should” have been .268/.344/.429. Also, his groundball rate was very high for a player at a power position (50.6 GB%).

Kotchman’s performance did indeed take a turn for the worse in 2008, as he hit a middle infielder-like .272/.328/.410 between the Angels and the Braves. His walk rate dipped considerably (6.4 BB%), though his K rate fell to a career-low 7.4%. Kotchman’s ISO was a paltry .137; only Daric Barton and Ryan Garko exhibited less sock from the first base position. Continuing a career-long trend, Kotchman hit groundballs at an alarming clip for a man playing a power-oriented position. His 52.7 groundball percentage was the 9th-highest among all qualified major league players.

For the sake of comparison, let’s take a look at the five guys ranked directly in front of and directly behind Kotchman in terms of GB%. In addition to their groundball rates, I included their baserunning scores from Bill James Online. The stat measures a player’s total adeptness on the basepaths: how well the player advances from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, and 1st to home compared to the league averages, as well as how much value the player brings in the stolen base department (only high-percentage base thieves receive credit).

Ryan Theriot 56.6 GB% (+10)
Delmon Young 55.2 GB% (-3)
Michael Bourn 53.9 GB% (+27)
Fred Lewis 53.9 GB% (+13)
Cristian Guzman 52.9 GB% (-4)
Casey Kotchman 52.7 GB% (-22)
Jacoby Ellsbury 51.7 GB% (+40)
Hunter Pence 51.7 GB% (-13)
Willy Taveras 51.5 GB% (+70)(!)
Russell Martin 51.1 GB% (+14)
Randy Winn 51.1 GB% (+41)

One of these things is not like the others. Okay, Young (whom we’ve covered before) and Pence don’t really belong either, but the overwhelming majority of the players who often chop the ball into the dirt have the speed and baserunning prowess to make it a viable strategy. Putting the ball on the ground isn’t a bad idea if you’re a burner, but when you’re a slow-footed first baseman who might not be able to beat the beer vendor down the base line, it’s probably not sound strategy to hit grounders at a rate commensurate to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Kotchman will turn 26 this offseason and still may have some development left, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will make good on the high hopes that prospect mavens had for him a few years back. He plays a slick first base (+13 in John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system), but an underpowered player at a premium offensive position just isn’t an asset. The average major league first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 this past season. Realistically, that’s about the best that one could hope for from Kotchman this upcoming season, and even that sort of line would entail significant improvement in his walk rate and a decrease in his number of groundballs hit. I think we may need to revise Ernest Thayer’s classic baseball poem:

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville— mighty Casey has grounded out.





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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