Archive for Carlos Carrasco

Breaking Down BABIP: What Impacts Flyball BABIP for Pitchers?

A little more than a year ago, Alex Chamberlain and I looked into what type of impact a slew of Statcast measures had on a pitcher’s overall BABIP rate. Hard-hit rate and exit velocity on ground balls (EV GB) had the strongest correlations, but it seemed unlikely that the latter would have much to say about which pitchers would be best at limiting hits on flyballs in play. In general, it seems that BABIP could be influenced by different factors depending on the type of batted ball.

So let’s test that out. This column is the first in a series of four where I will be looking at the impact of various measures on flyball BABIP and ground ball Avg, both for pitchers and hitters. I’m kicking this off with an analysis of flyball BABIP for pitchers.
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Bullpen Report: September 21, 2019

Although Brad Hand returned to Cleveland’s bullpen, Carlos Carrasco recorded his first save of the season working 1.1 scoreless innings while walking one. Carrasco’s story this year cannot be ignored and he’s turned in two straight scoreless outings as a reliever. His ability to work multiple innings could translate to more save chances down the stretch. Perhaps Terry Francona wishes to ease Hand back into high leverage in order to ensure success. Following heavy usage in the first half, Hand struggled after the All-Star break with a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings from July 15th on, including four home runs in the 19 game stretch. Hand owners will need to monitor his usage and effectiveness once he returns to the mound but remain hopeful since he did record five consecutive saves before leaving the team for an MRI. He last pitched on September eighth. All reports suggest Hand’s bullpen sessions went well leading up to last night. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: August 24, 2019

It feels like bullpens settled in over the last few days but blips always arise. There’s no impending change in Cincinnati, but it will be intriguing to see if the Reds move Raisel Iglesias in the off-season. Iglesias entered last night’s outing having converted his last nine save chances. However, a lead-off single by Colin Moran followed by consecutive hits from Jose Osuna and Adam Frazier tied the game in Pittsburgh resulting in Igelsias’ fourth blown save and first in over a month. Jacob Stallings bunted two runners into scoring position, the only out recorded by Iglesias before a walk-off single by Pablo Reyes resulted in loss number nine for Iglesias. With the Reds retooling for next year, they seem to be building a solid bullpen leading up to their closer, especially Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson. Garrett recorded his 19th hold with a clean eighth inning striking out one. Stephenson tossed a clean seventh with a strikeout during a tied game. Over his last 11 appearances, Stephenson owns a 0.73 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and 15:4 K:BB spanning 12.1 innings.

Pittsburgh’s Felipe Vazquez notched his fourth win in relief working a clean top of the ninth. It’s been slim pickings for Vazquez in terms of save chances since the inception of the second half, which could create a unique buying opportunity for 2020 when fantasy players focus on save totals, not performance. Focus on Vazquez’s 14 strikeouts versus two walks in 11.2 innings since the All-Star break with no earned runs and a minuscule 0.51 WHIP in them.

Perhaps turning the corner, Brad Hand snapped a personal three game skid of blown saves securing his 30th save last night. Hand yielded a lead-off single to Alex Gordon but erased him quickly inducing a double play ground ball by Cheslor Cuthbert before ending the game on a Bubba Starling ground out. More important than the save, Hand getting his outs via grounders compared to fly balls. Hand’s 41.8 fly ball percentage this year represents a career high, but any migration towards his old career 43 percent ground ball rates would be welcomed by his owners. There’s no guarantee Carlos Carrasco will even make it back to Cleveland despite all of our best wishes. First, here’s an update regarding his rehab outings going forward:

Second, Carrasco could figure into late inning match-up situations like Cody Allen used to share with Hand in September as covered in this link from Indians beat writer, Paul Hoynes. Stay tuned and continued prayers for Cookie in his battle with Leukemia.

A marathon in New York ended with the Braves emerging victorious after 14 innings. Mark Melancon locked down his fifth save, and fourth in a row striking out one in a scoreless appearance. Luke Jackson garnered his seventh win in relief working two scoreless frames allowing two hits with two strikeouts. Shane Greene logged his fifth straight scoreless outing with a clean eighth inning. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless ninth inning and has retired 12 of the last 13 hitters he’s faced. Seth Lugo fired two scoreless innings for the Mets in a tied game walking two and striking out four. He lowered his home ERA to 1.86 in the process. But, Lugo needed 38 pitches over his two innings so he’s likely unavailable on Saturday. This could result in a save chance for Edwin Diaz. He turned in a clean 10th inning keeping the game tied with two strikeouts and riding a four game scoreless streak. Jeurys Familia absorbed his second loss allowing two hits, an earned run and two walks with three strikeouts in the top of the 14th inning. He’s only given up five earned runs since July seventh but owns an 18:16 K:BB in this stretch, tread lightly.

Matt Magill recorded his third save with a clean ninth inning against the Blue Jays. Since he’s received each of the last four save chances for the Mariners, his shared status with Anthony Bass has been removed on the closer chart. Not sure Magill can stay hot, but since joining Seattle, his 15 strikeouts versus three walks in 12.1 innings will keep him in the ninth inning. Austin Adams will continue his rehab in the minors and could be a factor down the stretch, but his health can be fickle. Do not forget about Adams next year if he makes it back from his rehab.

Quick Hits: Aaron Slegers gets his first save working the last three innings against the Orioles. Slegers allowed three hits and an earned run, but all saves count the same in the books…Speaking of Baltimore, they placed Shawn Armstrong (right forearm strain) on the injured list to provide him with some rest. This puts Hunter Harvey even closer to a save chance and probably the last chance to stash him if desperate for a save in the Orioles bullpen…Kyle Zimmer will work exclusively from the stretch going forward. He fired two scoreless innings against Cleveland yielding a hit and walking one with two strikeouts last night…Save number 31 for Roberto Osuna working for the fourth time in the last five games. With Ryan Pressly on the injured list, Houston will likely ride Osuna hard. Monitor his workload…Jeremy Jeffress allowed an unearned run in the ninth inning. Josh Hader would have worked if the no-hitter was in play…Buck Farmer gets his 12th hold giving up two runs on a home run to Miguel Sano. Joe Jimenez coughed up a solo home run to Jake Cave in a non-save outing in the ninth…Sergio Romo allowed two urns on three hits in two-thirds of an inning…Alex Colome tossed a clean ninth inning getting in work with a strikeout…Luke Farrell fired two clean innings with two strikeouts for Texas…Miami’s not recorded a save since July 24th.

Not Very Stable
Hot Seat
Committee
Bullpen Report — 8/24/2019

What Has Happened to Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas?

After Monday’s smallish slate of games, there have been a total of 241 games played so far this season. That’s 9.9 percent of the total schedule. By the time Tuesday’s games are done, the status bar will have moved to 10.5 percent. For a very brief moment, we still have the opportunity to say, “we’re not even 10 percent through this season!”. That’s something of a comfort when coping with the angst that comes with having drafted players who underperform early in the season.

Mike Podhorzer has looked into a number of slow starters in separate columns for hitters and pitchers, and a couple of the subjects from the latter column have been particularly concerning to me. Mike pointed out that Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas are both posting a lower SwStr% so far this season, but what had caught my eye about them was where they were ranking on Baseball Savant’s leaderboard for exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD).
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Underthrown Pitches And The Pitchers Who Underthrow Them: Vol. 2 Cutters and Curves

Two weeks ago, I went searching for some of the league’s underthrown pitches. Which offerings by virtue of their paucity, despite excelling at inducing whiffs and weak contact, should be thrown more often? We’ve seen it so many times in the past, when a pitcher of whom we think a known quantity, suddenly leans on one pitch just a little more heavily and reinvents himself. Last week, we looked at the league’s underthrown four-seam fastballs and sinkers. This week, we turn to cutters and curves.

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Buying Low Using LOB%: Buchholz, Carrasco and Strasburg

Strikeouts are highly desirable from starting pitchers — not exactly an Earth shattering revelation. Unfortunately, everyone wants them, meaning they aren’t often readily available on the waiver wire. With that in mind, I glanced over the leaderboard for strikeout rate among qualified hurlers searching for some potential buy-low candidates. A trio of pitchers stood out to me. Clay Buchholz, Carlos Carrasco and Stephen Strasburg are all posting significantly worse ERA marks than their ERA estimators suggest they should be. Each pitcher, somewhat predictably, has an elevated BABIP, but all three also rank in the bottom 10 among qualified starters in left on base percentage. Read the rest of this entry »


First Starts Validating our New Studs

Despite the small sample, the pitching trend continues (as of 4/11):

Season K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2010 18.50% 0.145 0.297 0.257 0.325 0.403 0.321
2011 18.60% 0.144 0.295 0.255 0.321 0.399 0.316
2012 19.80% 0.151 0.297 0.255 0.319 0.405 0.315
2013 19.90% 0.143 0.297 0.253 0.318 0.396 0.314
2014 20.40% 0.135 0.299 0.251 0.314 0.386 0.31
2015 21.20% 0.131 0.28 0.233 0.301 0.365 0.296

Strikeouts are up. Offense is down. The MLB ERA as it stands is 3.39! You can read why in the The Hardball Time’s Baseball Annual 2015: Jeff Sullivan looks at whether or not sabermetrics have tipped the balance of power toward pitching and defense — it has. PITCHf/x evaluation is one major reason.

More and more, pitchers know what works within their own repertoires, and we can then tell some “reperstories” based on their pitch characteristics (movement and velocity) and outcomes (swinging-strike and groundball induction).

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Auctions: All About the Bass

It has begun! May your leagues bring you much joy. What follows is one approach to auctions that should bring you future joy.

I participated in two auction drafts. In both, I decided to spend little on pitching. In The Fake Baseball’s Friends and Family League (TFBFFL), I spent almost the minimum on our (co-own the free team with Zach Sanders) rotation and bench. I spent $16.00 on 12 pitchers ($2 max), but the results were not horrible: Drew Hutchison, Homer Bailey, Carlos Martinez, Henderson Alvarez, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Sean Doolittle, Carlos Rodon and Rafael Montero. I dropped Chad Qualls already for Zach McAllister. We have enough bats to upgrade.

In my next auction, I wanted two better pitchers, but I still gave myself a $40 cap. I wound up spending $45 on the following:

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Josh Shepardson’s Bold Predictions for 2015

Life isn’t all about rainbows and butterflies. With that in mind, my bold predictions include some positive outlooks for a pair of post-hype sleepers, some young hurlers, a sophomore everyone is in love with and a veteran second baseman. However, they also feature some less than rosy prognostications for a speedy second baseman, a late-blooming multi-position eligible Pirate and a pitcher trading homer-friendly Great American Ballpark for the homer-suppressing Marlins Park. Read the rest of this entry »


My NFBC Draft Champions Review

You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.

NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:

a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!

b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.

c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and

d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.

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