Archive for Carlos Beltran

Over the next several weeks, RotoGraphs will highlight intriguing position battles that could have implications both on the field and in your fantasy draft. This week, we focus on the AL East.

In case you’re wondering how to characterize the New York Yankees’ front office strategy, you need only ask GM Brian Cashman. “You want to get younger, athletic, and good…That’s what we’re trying to do.” The Yankees’ 40-is-the-new-27 experiment is coming to an end and while 2016 won’t yet be the Year of the Millennial in the Bronx, young talent at first base, catcher, and the outfield signal that time could be coming soon.

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Our Mock Draft is complete.

Team Schwartz/rounds drafted:

C: Travis d’Arnaud/17 1B: Victor Martinez/4 2B: Arismendy Alcantara/18 3B: Josh Donaldson/3 SS: Hanley Ramirez/2 MI: Jean Segura/19 CI: Prince Fielder/6 OF: Mike Trout/1; Mookie Betts/7; Ryan Zimmerman/10; A.J. Pollock/14; Steven Souza/20; Carl Crawford/24 U: Pedro Alvarez/21

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This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.

I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.

Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

Love ’em or hate ’em, they are the New York Yankees and they are still the face of American baseball. They are about winning, they are about hardware (or bling if that’s the word you prefer) and they are all about the big market spending. But we’re not here to judge right now. Whether you think this year’s plundering of the free agent market was more Brittney Spears “Oops, I did it again,” or more Urkel “Did I do that?”, it doesn’t matter, because this is the fantasy baseball section of FanGraphs and that’s what we’re talking here. Our assignment is to tell you who is in this team’s outfield and what that means to fantasy owners, so let’s bypass the small-market, crybaby tantrums and let’s talk game. Read the rest of this entry »

While most of the fantasy community is hip-deep in the football playoffs (myself included), there is still nothing more exciting for me than the MLB hot stove. Baseball has always been my first love and given the necessary preparation for keeper leagues, following the latest free agent movement and rumors is really what I love most about the winter. It doesn’t matter if it’s a marquee name or just a role-player hoping to establish a bigger role for himself with a new club, I track it all. If a player is moving into a favorable situation, I’m going to want to see if he’s worth drafting. If he’s headed somewhere that I think will be a detriment to his game, I’ll cross him off my draft lists. And with the latest rumors saying that Carlos Beltran is going to end up with the Yankees, I’m getting ready to bump him up on my draft sheets the moment he signs on the dotted line. Read the rest of this entry »

Whatever happened to the power of positive thinking? Obviously it’s a lost art form when you’re talking about a certain percentage of fantasy baseballers. If you recall a Kicking Rocks piece I did  during the spring called Draft Characters, you’ll remember the outline I provided of the different types of people you’ll likely face in the war room on Draft Day. The first “person” discussed was the Know-It-All — the guy loaded with information and always willing to endow you with his wisdom. Well, what I didn’t tell you is what happens to this person once the season begins. The best way to describe it is to equate him to a petulant child who just learned the word ‘no.’ No player you like, does he like. No trade that you make, would he make, and heaven forbid you play with him in a league where you vote on trades. The transformation takes place shortly after the start of the season and your league know-it-all sadly becomes The Naysayer. Read the rest of this entry »

I can’t claim “killing your babies,” although I really wish I could. And before you go marching off with a fungo bat looking for your first born, please, put the bat down. ‘Killing your babies’ is a term/phrase/philosophy I’m stealing from an editor I worked with who used it to describe something difficult in writing. That is, sometimes you just have to get rid of entire chapters of your book, despite the fact that you think they’re brilliant — because they really just don’t work anymore. I like to apply this principle to fantasy baseball.

Admit it — you fall in love with players. To see certain names on your roster just warms the cockles of your heart. Even the sub-cockles. But there’s a point at which carrying your favorite beau is actually hurting your chances at winning. And although I actually know some managers who would rather lose with players they like (because, they say, they enjoy “rooting for them” – BAH!) — I refuse to believe that the good readers here want anything other than the final prize. If a player isn’t bringing your team closer to a championship, it’s high time to get out the hatchet. Kill your babies.

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Injuries are just the worst.  While, in most leagues, you have the ability to add and drop players on a regular basis, nothing ruins a fantasy season more than when your team gets decimated by injuries.  You may possess the most in-depth knowledge of both baseball and statistics, but when the injury bug makes a run through your team, you can only do so much to keep pace.  In most cases, you simply cannot predict when it’s going to happen to your guys.  Fluke injuries happen all the time.  However, there are, obviously, numerous players out there that have a very visible track record and you need to decide come draft day (or even in a trade) if they are worth the risk.  So here’s a list of the top 10 most injury-plagued major leaguers with some thoughts as to whether you should take a chance or let them be your competition’s problem.  We’ll cover the first half today and then bring you home with the rest tomorrow.

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We’re getting down to that time of year where, unless you’re talking keeper league, it’s all about picking up the guy swinging the hot bat with a relative disregard for the long term.  If he keeps it up for a couple of weeks, then great, but no more worrying about small sample sizes or potential in the second half.  This is it.  So if you’re looking for some quick-fix help in your outfield, these guys just might fit the bill… Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Carlos Beltran
Coming back from offseason knee trouble, Beltran showed some promise that could leave owners hopeful heading into 2011. With an extra offseason of rest, could Beltran actually return to his old self? A move out of center field could help the former star, and who knows if the new Mets’ management will do the right thing.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 14 HR, 8 SB
Verdict: Cut. I’d rather have an outfielder without knee problems. Don’t buy into his name value.

Colby Rasmus
I was pretty high on Rasmus coming into the season, picking him up as a bench option in as many leagues as possible. If he wasn’t drafted, he was grabbed off the waiver wire early on thanks to a hot September. He slowed down, and Tony La Russa isn’t his biggest fan, but he still managed over 500 plate appearances for the second straight year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 25 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. Don’t trick yourself into thinking he’s a .300/30/30 guy, though. He never will be.

Drew Stubbs
Stubbs is a classic example of what most owners view as a replacement level fantasy player. He’s always on the waiver wire, usually owned by a few different teams, because he’s such a tantalizing talent. His counting stats are great, and I think he’s going to be a 30/30 guy at some point in his career. His strikeout rate is just plain ugly, so he’ll have to put some work in if he wants to become more of a complete player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.340, 25 HR, 35 SB
Verdict: Keep. His power and speed combo is too good to ignore.

Jacoby Ellsbury
After being viewed as a heel by most Red Sox fans, Ellsbury could very well be in a different uniform when 2011 begins. After stealing 70 bases in 2009, Ellsbury followed it up with 7 steals this season. He still has a ton of speed, and could easily swipe 50+ bases again next season.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 40 SB
Verdict: Cut. If you wanted Ellsbury this year, you had to take him in the second or third round. I’m not willing to pay that price again.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.