Archive for Cardinals

Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

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With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)
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An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
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Episode 88

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 66 min of joyous analysis.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

Plenty of pitchers go through an early season manic phase before crashing back to earth in the second half, but few who pitched as well as Lance Lynn did after being thrust into the rotation find their jobs as unsecure the next season as he does going into 2013.

Lynn was given his shot at starting late in camp last year, less than a month before his regular season debut, and only because it appeared as though Chris Carpenter wouldn’t be healthy in time to break camp with the team. Lynn adapted to the role well and went 8-1 in his first 10 starts with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. His next 10 starts were less encouraging as he went 5-3 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.Still, even after he made the start that finally pushed him out of the rotation on August 24, Lynn’s overall line wasn’t horrific by any stretch of the imagination. A 13-5 record with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 is certainly workable, even if he was in the midst of something of a swoon at the time. Read the rest of this entry »

Cardinals left hander Jaime Garcia almost opted for professional baseball in his native country of Mexico in 2005. But area scout Joe Almaraz convinced Garcia to sign with the St. Louis as a 22nd-round pick. Almaraz is quite the persuader as he also convinced the Orioles to draft Garcia in round 30 a year prior but they did not sign him. Almaraz left Baltimore after 2004 to scout with the Cardinals and he didn’t forget about Garcia.

Much of the Cardinals attention is currently focused on Matt Holliday these days after they signed Brad Penny to seemingly replace current free agent Joel Piniero. That leaves the Cards with four definite starters: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Brad Penny, and Kyle Lohse. St. Louis may try bringing back veteran John Smoltz or someone else to plug the fifth spot in the rotation but it could very well be filled with an in-house candidate.

Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters figure to be some of those in-house candidates but then there is also the case of the intriguing Jaime Garcia. Garcia was cruising through the Cardinals system before elbow soreness cut short his 2007 season. He made 18 inspiring starts between Double-A and Triple-A in 2008 and received a call up to the big leagues in July 2008. Garcia served as a reliever and had a tough ten game trial (7.07 FIP) before it was determined that he needed Tommy John surgery on his left arm.

Garcia returned in 2009 and logged 38 innings in the minor leagues after surgery. He performed well in the postseason for the Triple-A Memphis club. Garcia attacks hitters with a sinking fastball that ranges from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s and he has a hammer 12-6 curveball. Baseball America reports that he added a third useful offering last season in their recent scouting report, “He used his rehab to add a pitch that’s a cross between a cutter and slider”.

Garcia’s sinking fastball has induced ground balls at a mighty pace throughout the minor leagues. Here are his ground ball rates, courtesy of Firstinning.com, throughout the Cardinals system.

2006: A ball (78 IP)- 65%. A+ (77 IP)- 62%
2007: AA (103 IP)- 56%
2008: AA (35 IP)- 62%. AAA (71 IP)- 55%. MLB (16 IP)- 63%
2009: Rookie (4 IP)- 85%. A+ (13 IP)- 71%. AAA (21 IP)- 55%

At every single level Garcia has induced ground balls at an amazing rate. His lowest ground ball rate is 55% in 92 combined innings during two Triple-A stints. Consider the top five ground ball percentages for 2009 MLB pitchers:

1. Joel Piniero– 60.5%
2. Derek Lowe– 56.3%
3. Jason Marquis– 55.6%
4. Chris Carpenter– 55%
5. Rick Porcello– 54.2%

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright ranked #13 with a 50.7% rate. The Cardinals had three of their 2009 starters within the top 15 and two within the top 5. Piniero is likely signing elsewhere but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals won’t have another ground ball pitcher in their 2010 rotation.

There’s no reason not to believe that Garcia could induce ground balls at a very solid clip as a starter in the majors. His pitching repertoire would fit right into the Cardinals rotation. The Cardinals defense is very solid up the middle with slick fielding shortstop Brendan Ryan (10.6 UZR) and the rangy Colby Rasmus (8.9 UZR) is center field. Second base is the weak spot but the Julio Lugo/Skip Schumaker tandem may provide average defense with Lugo (-3.5 UZR in 168 innings) shifting over from shortstop. Schumaker (-7.7 UZR) will be spending his second season ever at the position after spending almost his entire professional career as an outfielder and there might be room for more defensive improvement.

It is also encouraging to know that with last seasons defense the Cardinals four primary starters and ground ball specialists had these BABIPS:

Adam Wainwright– .309
Chris Carpenter– .272
Joel Piniero– .293
Kyle Lohse– .300

The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t hurt these pitchers last season.

Garcia is entering 2010 with a clean bill of health and should get a long look during the Spring. He’s one of the Cardinals better pitching prospects and offers more upside over Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be given the job. Since his professional career began in 2006 Garcia has never topped the 155 inning mark and he hit that career high in his first pro season in the lower minors. Below are Garcia’s inning totals:

2006- 155 IP
2007- 103 IP *season ends early due to elbow soreness*
2008- 122 IP *season ends with Tommy John Surgery*
2009- 38 IP *first season back from Tommy John Surgery*

It’s also worth noting that some fear Garcia’s pitching mechanics and Garcia really can’t be expected to fire 170+ big league innings next year from the Cardinals rotation. They will closely monitor Garcia and his innings total.

Keep a close eye on Garcia’s progress this Spring and the Cardinals plans. He might be ticketed to Triple-A Memphis to start 2010 but he could arrive to St. Louis’s rotation at some point during the year. He’d be a cheap pick up and worth the gamble if he’s ever presented with the opportunity to start at the big league level. If he makes the big league rotation on opening day I’d recommend picking him up but keep in mind that he likely won’t last in that role for the entire season due to his past inning totals and the fact that this will be his first full season back from injury.

Garcia fits the Cardinals overall pitching scheme and their defense is going to help him and his sinking fastball. Don’t be surprised if he’s grounding opponents with his sinker this summer in St. Louis.