Archive for Cardinals

Six of Sunday’s 15 scheduled games were postponed, robbing us of a potential opportunity to see if Arodys Vizcaino could get on track for the Braves or whether Joakim Soria or Nate Jones gets the next save opportunity for the White Sox.

Despite the limited schedule, we got yet another chapter in the Brewers’ bullpen saga. Craig Counsell brought Matt Albers into a 2-2 tie with the Mets in the bottom of the ninth inning, and he got within one out of delivering his team into extra innings. Instead of prolonging the game, Albers allowed Wilmer Flores‘ walk-off solo homer. Despite having pitched only once over the previous four days, Jacob Barnes was nowhere to be found in the seventh and eighth innings, as Counsell chose to set Albers up with Jeremy Jeffress and Dan Jennings. Barnes has apparently pitched his way out of the Brewers’ closer mix.
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More often than not, I write to hype a player who has wowed me in one way or another. Sometimes, I have to put a damper on things. Through 20 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts, Luke Weaver’s average draft position (ADP) stands at a pearly 111th overall and 28th among starting pitchers.

Weaver’s 36-inning debut freaked me out a bit. It was evident he could capably prevent baserunners, or, through 20% of a season, he could at least fake it. His 3.34 xFIP suggested as much, even in spite of his abhorrent 31% ground ball rate (GB%). Everything else stunk — all the luck metrics broke the wrong way in a small sample — but it was enough to suggest a bright future for the former 1st-rounder was imminent.

I planned to avoid Weaver at all costs in 2017 because of his fly ball tendencies exclusively; I simply did not want to suffer the wrath of a juiced ball because some small-sample strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) goodness seduced me. Turns out, batted ball metrics can also feel the wrath of randomness in small samples, as his ground ball rate spiked to an above-average 50%. Some of the luck metrics tempered a bit, and the result was a 29% strikeout rate (K%) and defense-independent metrics that suggested he should nearly have a flat 3.00 ERA. It’s almost like there’s a reason why this 24-year-old kid was drafted in the 1st round or something.

I’m here to pump the brakes. I’m not sold on Weaver’s peripherals. I’m willing to let you convince me otherwise, but allow me to explain.

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It turns out that closers, agents and fantasy owners aren’t the only ones who care about saves. In something of a surprise move, Dusty Baker summoned Sean Doolittle for the eighth inning of the Nationals’ series finale against the Astros on Thursday night. With switch-hitting Carlos Beltran and lefties Brian McCann and Derek Fisher due up, there was a certain logic to Doolittle being brought in, but that was apparently not Baker’s only consideration. Both MASN’s Mark Zuckerman and the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo tweeted that the Nationals’ manager wanted to give Brandon Kintzler a chance to reach 30 saves. He has been stuck on 28 since getting traded from the Twins to the Nationals on July 31.

So, yes, it was Kintzler who pitched the ninth with a 3-1 lead, but that was quickly erased by a Josh Reddick RBI single and a Yuli Gurriel RBI double. Kintzler is still two saves away from 30, so we should not be surprised to see him get at least a couple more chances to pitch in save situations. While Doolittle has not been as effective against right-handed hitters as he has been against lefties, his .225 wOBA allowed against righties entering Thursday’s game hardly seems like reason enough to hold him back from facing the top of the Astros’ batting order.
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It has now been a full week since Aroldis Chapman put himself in jeopardy of blowing a save against the Red Sox by starting the ninth inning with three consecutive walks. Little has gone right since then.

To recap, he blew a save on Sunday, recorded a save on Tuesday despite allowing an Amed Rosario two-run homer and sat out Wednesday and Thursday due to a hamstring injury. Though Joe Girardi has insisted that Chapman is still his closer, on Friday, he brought him in for the bottom of the eighth inning against the Red Sox even though the Yankees trailed by a run. Once again, Chapman dug himself a hole, allowing a leadoff single to Rafael Devers (who homered off him on Sunday), walking Christian Vazquez and then allowing a double steal. That set up a two-RBI single by Jackie Bradley, Jr., all before Chapman recorded his first out.
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In a tumultuous season for the Cardinals’ bullpen, it was starting to look like Trevor Rosenthal was creating some stability. He had rattled off seven consecutive saves over a 16-day period, the first six of which were scoreless.

On Wednesday night, it took just eight pitches to ruin that placid state. On his second pitch — a 91.4 mph four-seam fastball — Rosenthal gave up a home run to Xander Bogaerts. Six pitches later, Mitch Moreland took a free pass. Mike Matheny was sufficiently concerned that he removed Rosenthal for Zach Duke. Rosenthal averaged 94.3 mph on the six four-seam fastballs he threw, after he had hovered around 97 mph over his previous six appearances. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Duke and John Brebbia didn’t fare much better, and the latter gave up Mookie Betts‘ walk-off double.
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The second-best part about Tommy Pham is I can basically recycle this post I wrote about Domingo Santana three and a half weeks ago. Like, I could replace Santana’s name with Pham’s throughout it and you wouldn’t blink. Pham, through his first 628 plate appearances, has hit a home run on more than 28% of his fly balls (28% HR/FB); if sustained for another 72 PA, it would be the third-best mark through a player’s first 700 PA in the last 15 years (among more than 600 qualified hitters).

The best part about Tommy Pham, though, is something Santana doesn’t have, and it’s something more than skin deep. Depending on whom you ask, Pham has swung at pitches outside the zone only 19.8% (BIS), 22.2% (Pitch Info) or 22.9% (PITCHf/x) of the time. Those rank, in order, 6th, 11th and 18th among 205 hitters with at least 250 PA — in other words, the 95th percentile (for the former two) or at least the 90th (for the lattermost). In short, he forces pitchers to pitch to him. Few in the game have been more selective, and few in the game have shown this much power this early in a career. (“Early,” by number of games, obviously, because Pham, at 29, is hella old for a guy who barely has a full season’s worth of PA.) The coincidence of his selectivity and his power is nice, to say the least.

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The Cardinals’ closer situation took an interesting turn on Sunday when Mike Matheny brought Brett Cecil in to close out a 3-2 game against the Pirates. While Cecil getting a save chance added a new wrinkle to the Cardinals’ committee arrangement, it was a sensible move. Cecil would have to face Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco and Jordy Mercer, and while Polanco was the only left-handed batter in that group, Cecil had been far more effective against righties this season. He was also on a roll, having built a string of 15 straight scoreless appearances covering 15 2/3 innings. Over that span, Cecil allowed just five singles, two doubles and a walk. It also made sense that Matheny called upon Trevor Rosenthal to take care of the top of the Pirates’ order in the eighth inning.

Cecil picked a bad time to take a break from shutting down opponents, as he gave up a lead-off single to Cervelli, a game-tying double to Mercer and a walk-off single to Adam Frazier.
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The Cardinals have been teetering on a the cusp of a closer change for awhile, and Mike Matheny may be finally taking the plunge with Trevor Rosenthal. It was Rosenthal, and not Seung Hwan Oh, who came in for the save at Arizona on Wednesday night, even though Oh was clearly available, having warmed up earlier in the game. Rosenthal came close to frittering away a 4-2 lead, as a wild pitch allowed Brandon Drury to score and Chris Herrmann to advance to third base with two outs. He eventually got out of the jam, getting David Peralta to ground into the final out.

Whether Rosenthal is officially the closer, sharing the job with Oh or the recipient of a one-off save chance is not yet known. If he is not the Cardinals’ full-time closer, he is certainly much closer to having that status than he was prior to Wednesday’s win. It’s time to find room to stash him.
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Spring training is just days away, and that’s our queue to take stock of bullpens around the majors. This is the first of six installments that will take a look at how bullpens are lining up, one division at a time. We begin with the National League Central.

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Maybe it’s just me, but it seems Michael Wacha’s solid season has largely gone unnoticed among a sea of excellent pitching performances this year. His value is largely buoyed by the win column (12) because of a relatively modest 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), but his 3.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at — they rank 21st and 18th, respectively, among all qualified starters.

Wacha has largely taken teammate Adam Wainwright’s path to success this year: walk very few batters, induce a lot of ground balls and limit hard contact. Wainright has historically been more effective in limiting baserunners — only recently did his strikeout rate fall below 8.0 K/9 — but Waino has also been around a while. He really didn’t hit his stride until his age-27 season.

Technicalities aside, Wacha and Wainwright don’t have a lot in common. Waino throws sinkers, cutters and curves; Wacha lives primarily off a four-seamer while peppering in the occasional cutter, curve and change-up. However, Wacha improved one of his secondary pitches this year, and it helped him join an elite, albeit somewhat contrived, group of pitchers.

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