Archive for Cardinals

When trying to predict the machinations of the Phillies bullpen, it’s frustrating. Gabe Kapler’s very public about his disregard for traditional bullpen roles, so investing in any reliever on his team will accompany ups and downs. One day removed from Hector Neris notching his first save in a clean outing, Pat Neshek faced the Nationals at home with the save opportunity. Seranthony Dominguez turned in a clean sixth inning and garnered the win in relief with a strikeout. Adam Morgan notched his fourth hold with a clean seventh and a strikeout. David Robertson worked around a Victor Robles single and struck out one in the eight. Neshek did record his first save of the year, but allowed a home run to Brian Dozier along with a double to Anthony Rendon. Through 5.2 innings this year, Neshek owns a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, but the average exit velocity of his five balls in play last night, 96.9 MPH. There’s no clear reliever to own in this bullpen, so target accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

Having recorded his second save of the season, Ryan Brasier has surged into lead for saves in the Red Sox’s bullpen. However, there will be no such surging into the lead spot in the Red Sox’s portion of the closer grid.

It appears that Alex Cora may trust Matt Barnes to handle the highest leverage situations, and over the long haul, that could translate into more saves for him than for Brasier. On Sunday, as soon as the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead against the Diamondbacks on Mitch Moreland’s homer in the top of the seventh inning, Cora installed Barnes to pitch in the bottom of the inning to face the 4-5-6 portion of the Arizona order. He stayed on to pitch the eighth inning as well and retired all six batters he faced. With the top of the order due, Brasier came in to finish off the Diamondbacks and did so, allowing only a David Peralta double.
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During a night, which mostly went to plan with the shrinking herd of closers, a newly muddled, yet reported time share will ensue in Atlanta. Arodys Vizcaino flirted with disaster walking lead-off hitter Peter O’Brien, then allowing a double to Martin Prado. Vizcaino recovered to strikeout Curtis Granderson and Brian Anderson prior to issuing a walk to Neil Walker before inducing Starlin Castro to fly out to left field. This preserved a shutout win for the Braves, but no relief to Vizcaino owners in the WHIP department. He’s working about two MPH below his numbers from last year with his fastball and slider, plus reports suggest the health of his shoulder will need to be managed. A.J. Minter should not be on many waiver wires after this weekend, even in a shared role, he provides potential upside. Read the rest of this entry »

For the last couple of seasons, I have been waiting for a Tyler Anderson breakout. Over the course of 2017 and 2018, he induced whiffs on 11.9 percent of his pitches, which is good for the 21st-highest SwStr% among the 91 pitchers who have thrown at least 250 innings over that span. As I seemingly write in every other column, it is well established that SwStr% is strongly correlated with strikeout rate, yet Anderson’s 22.3 percent K% from the last two years ranks just 41st out of those same 91 pitchers.

The reason for Anderson’s apparent underachievement is clear: he doesn’t get many called strikes. The Rockies’ lefty throws a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and he gets swings on those pitches at an unusually high rate. That helps his swinging strike rate, but the flipside is that he has frozen batters at a subpar 16.5 percent rate over his career.
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It won’t likely come as a shock that, as we have one of our final opportunities to stream pitchers, there are few widely-available options worthy of our trust. In his recent piece on starting pitcher streaming options for the final weekend, Nick Pollack identified three pitchers from Friday’s slate who could be available and have some appeal. However, none of the three are likely to be on waivers in deeper formats.

In this column, I typically consider only pitchers who have an ownership rate of 25 percent or lower in Fantrax leagues, and even with setting the bar for availability fairly high, a couple of the pitchers featured here are at least worthy of consideration for your Friday rotation.
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Although most of the focus within this column caters to the saves chasers, with just over a week remaining in the season, teams will need to protect ratios as well. Owners of Josh Hader realize this through the value he provides in strikeouts and his ERA which dropped below two last night along with his 0.74 WHIP in 77 innings this season. Hader’s been a heater but his consecutive strikeout streak ended on Friday when Colin Moran lifted a pop fly to left field caught by Christian Yelich. However, Hader recorded 16 straight outs via strikeout over five outings to set a major league record. He also set a record for all southpaw relievers for strikeouts in a season with 136 so far with a chance to add to this in Milwaukee’s last eight contests. In September, Hader’s registered a strikeout minus walk percentage of 60, produced a 24.2 swinging strike percentage and allowed only 54.4 contact through 10 innings with a ridiculous 23:2 K:BB with a 0.50 WHIP. A different southpaw remains on the waiver wire in many leagues due to his lack of saves production, but Taylor Rogers extended his scoreless streak to 23.1 innings in Oakland last night. Since July 30th, spanning 25 games, Rogers has faced 80 hitters giving up only nine hits and three walks with 27 strikeouts. Yes, saves matter, but so do southpaws like these two who can ratio erasers to preserve spots in the standings. Read the rest of this entry »

As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
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For someone who had managed to pile up 28 saves, Bud Norris never seemed to have a firm grasp on the Cardinals’ closer role. Now he has lost his grip on the job entirely.

On Sunday, Mike Shildt named Carlos Martinez as the team’s new closer, and Norris is being moved to a lower-leverage role, albeit one that will still involve the later innings. Martinez had already been called upon to close out Wednesday’s 7-6 win over the Nationals, as Norris was unavailable, and then he recorded his first save as the team’s official closer on Sunday. His 1-2-3 ninth inning finished off a 5-2 win over the Tigers.
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With attention shifting to football for many fantasy owners, remaining vigilant with baseball will be important when projecting roles for next season. For example, Ty Buttrey notched the first save of his career last night for the Angels striking out one in a clean outing. His role continues to grow in high leverage and Buttrey’s been scoreless in eight of his nine appearances this season. He, along with Jose Alvarez own the best peripheral numbers in the Angels bullpen over the last 30 days. As for Buttrey, he’s pitched 9.1 innings since his promotion with a 0.96 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 10:3 K:BB, 16.9 swinging strike percentage, an ERA- of 23 and limiting contact to 65.5 percent. Keep in mind, Blake Parker recorded the previous two saves for the Angels but has not pitched since September third. This could just be a preview of next year for Buttrey, but if he moves into a share of the closer role, he’s an intriguing pickup for the remainder of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Masked within encrypted updates,time’s running out on a return for Brandon Morrow. Pedro Strop’s filled in affably as the closer since July 19th converting 10 of the 12 save chances provided, including his outing on Wednesday night giving up a hit and a walk with a strikeout for his 12th save of the season. As for Morrow, he would need to throw at least two bullpen sessions and a simulated game prior to returning before the playoffs, but still not progressing well during his rehab, as intimated here:

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1037473848873168896

With the high leverage bridge evolving the last three weeks, plan on Strop anchoring the bullpen the rest of the way. There’s a slight glimmer of hope Morrow could return, but this rhetoric about his progress has been proliferated for almost two months. Plan accordingly.

More concrete news regarding Kenley Jansen. He will not make the trip to Colorado for a big series with implications in the standings. However, staying healthy, as it should be, remains of the utmost importance regarding his heart issues. Jansen did get work in on Wednesday tossing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts. He’s made four straight scoreless appearances with five strikeouts against three hits since his four game runs allowed stretch. While this proves encouraging, his doctor also recommended Jansen returns to using the prescribed medication which made him feel like a “zombie” during the runs streak, so stay tuned to how this could affect his future performance. As for this weekend, Los Angeles could deploy a committee of Ryan Madson, Kenta Maeda and a wild card in high leverage:

Given the downside risk of bringing Kenley Jansen to Denver, plus the addition of Ryan Madson and the expected activation of Ross Stripling, it is hard to imagine the Dodgers will bring Kenley Jansen to Denver.

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) September 5, 2018

Unlike Maeda, Ross Stipling seemed excited for a chance to record a save if transitioned to the bullpen and makes for an intriguing arm this weekend in Coors for the Dodgers. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »