Archive for Braves

Coming up through the Astros’ minor league system, hard-throwing Mike Foltynewicz was pretty good at getting the swings-and-misses that fantasy owners crave. Yet in his first season with the Astros and his subsequent three seasons with the Braves, Foltynewicz failed to stand out as a swing-and-miss pitcher or as a source of strikeouts.

Through his first 18 starts of 2018, Foltynewicz has fared a little better at getting whiffs and a lot better at getting strikeouts. His swinging strike rate of 10.6 percent is a career high but only 0.6 percentage points better than his previous best in 2016. His strikeout rate of 28.9 percent is more than one-third greater than his 2016 high-water mark of 21.1 percent, and it is the 11th-highest rate among qualified starters this season.
Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret many players push through nagging injuries with the All-Star break fast approaching. Aroldis Chapman’s no exception and left Saturday’s game early when the tendinitis in his knee flared up after striking out Randal Grichuk. With a four run lead, there was no need to push him. However, the recurrence of this injury means it’s something fantasy owners remain cognizant of going forward. Chapman’s been terrific this year converting 24 of his 25 save chances with a 1.42 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 38 innings, including 24 over his last 14.2 innings. Working three games in a row to start the month could have prompted this flareup. As for his backup, it’s unlikely Dellin Betances sits on a waiver wire. He’s in the midst of a tremendous stretch during which he’s recorded 18 straight scoreless outings, spanning 17.2 innings, allowing three hits and 11 walks with 30 strikeouts against 67 total batters faced.

Trying to predict the machinations of Gabe Kaplar and how he will deploy the bullpen remains confounding. Eight different Phillies pitchers have notched a save this year as this hierarchy continues to evolve. It seemed like Seranthony Dominguez could emerge as the ninth inning option with four saves his previous four outings leading up to yesterday. But, Dominguez pitched the eighth inning for his 10th hold giving up a hit and striking out two. Victor Arano recorded his second save, in consecutive outings, also allowing a hit and striking out two. Philadelphia’s beat writers did not broach the subject suggesting a clear cut closer exists on the team. Delving into the batters faced, Dominguez faced Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran and Elias Diaz, hitters two through five in the Pirates order. It remains to be seen if Dominguez was used in the highest leverage spot, regardless of role or if Arano’s moving up in the pecking order. For now, leaving Dominguez atop the committee but also promoting Arano to second on the list. Read the rest of this entry »

Predictably, Sam Dyson struggled as the interim closer with Hunter Strickland sidelined due to a self inflicted injury. With intriguing arms like Reyes Moronta, Tony Watson and Will Smith, the Giants had options for the ninth inning with better ratios and performance over the last month. Bruce Bochy opted for Will Smith in the ninth inning in Arizona for a chance to record his first save since April 13th, 2014. Smith responded with a clean inning and striking out two. Returning from a myriad of injuries, Smith’s been terrific this season and especially in June. His 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 21 strikeouts to four walks punctuate how good Smith’s been over his last 12 innings.

Delving a bit deeper, Smith’s 24 swinging strike percentage along with a 47.8 O-swing percentage (chase rate) combined with his 56.7 percent contact allowed fuel his surge in June. On the season, Smith’s limited left-handed hitters to a .180/.200/.231 slash line in 10.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and right-handed hitters to a .071/.191/.103 average against with 15 strikeouts. If Smith remains the preferred option for Bochy going forward, both Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta will remain on the periphery of saves if Smith needs a break. Watson possesses closer experience and currently in the midst of a 13.1 scoreless inning streak spanning 14 outings. Moronta notched his fourth hold last night and has 11 strikeouts, three wins and a save with a 3.71 ERA his last 12 games. Read the rest of this entry »

Arizona did not deploy Brad Boxberger until the 11th inning for a save opportunity, but Boxberger failed to convert it for the second straight outing. Boxberger allowed an unearned run to score but it’s the three walks which raises eyebrows, not the end result. Leadoff walks never end well for closers and Boxberger started the inning with one to Gregory Polanco. Then he handed out a free pass to Josh Bell along with an intentional walk to Austin Meadows after a sacrifice bunt to load the bases. Had Jake Lamb made a better throw to home, perhaps it’s a moot point, but Boxberger’s walked five over his last six innings giving up three home runs and six earned runs in these appearances. As a result, Boxberger’s walk percentage has risen to 12.1 percent and his WHIP to an uncomfortable 1.37 through 26.1 innings.

It’s important to note, Boxberger’s only thrown 27.2 innings total across all levels in 2016 and 37 innings last year due to injuries. Fatigue could be a factor as the All-Star break looms. Arizona will let him continue in the role not wishing to increase arbitration to Archie Bradley, but in the midst of a pennant chase in the wide open National League West may eventually force their hand. Bradley’s only yielded one earned run in 10.1 innings in June despite his 4:4 K:BB in them. Yoshihisa Hirano‘s on a 21 game (18.1 inning) scoreless streak but mostly works in the seventh inning as a setup pitcher. Andrew Chafin’s also pitching well tossing 23 scoreless outings of his last 25 giving up only two earned runs his last 17.1 innings (1.04 ERA). Whether or not the Diamondbacks make a change remains to be seen, but Boxberger’s officially under watch as innings accrue. If the walks and home runs persist, he could be on the outside looking in for save chances in July. Read the rest of this entry »

After the Phillies announced there would be a committee approach to the ninth inning, fantasy owners should worry. Gabe Kapler’s still plying his trade as a first year manager armed with an emerging bullpen. Hector Neris started the year in the traditional closer role, but lost the role following a blown save last Friday. Edubray Ramos recorded his first save on Sunday yet no clarity arose. On Wednesday, Philadelphia started with Ramos in the top of the ninth in a save situation and he responded by striking out both hitters he faced on six pitches, both being right-handed batters. Then, they brought in Neris to pitch to Chris Davis, a left-handed slugger, who grounded out to second base securing the win. For the Phillies, the win will be the important factor, not preventing Ramos or Neris from notching a save. This will be important to remember when trying to chase saves in this bullpen going forward, especially given Ramos has limited left-handed hitters to a .200 batting average against this year compared .184 for Neris. No matter how the team spins the ninth, it’s going to be match-up based which will mean headaches for the saves chasers looking at this bullpen. All being told, it may be easier to avoid until clarity arises.

One day removed from suggesting a fluid bullpen, Atlanta provided Arodys Vizcaino with a redemption save chance last night. Vizcaino responded with his first clean save of the season. It’s Vizcaino’s eighth save and even though he has his warts, he’s closed out 20 of 23 save chances dating back to July 30th of last year. Of course, overlooking his 10 walks in 20.2 innings of work this year would be shortsighted, but dropping him due to the latest committee warning would be as well. A.J. Minter garnered the win in relief working one inning giving up a hit and striking out one. Many will keep tabs on Dan Winkler, and rightly so, due to his minuscule 0.98 ERA and 0.65 WHIP with 27 strikeouts versus 67 total batters faced (40.3 strikeout percentage) in 18.1 innings. With Vizcaino working the last two games, perhaps Winkler will get an audition on Thursday? Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday night was not Arodys Vizcaino’s night. Brian Snitker charged him with the task of protecting a one-run lead against the Cubs, but after retiring Kyle Schwarber on a routine fly ball, he gave up back-to-back doubles to Albert Almora Jr. and Addison Russell that were smoked, respectively, with exit velocities of 100.4 and 105.2 mph. Two batters later, Ben Zobrist put the Cubs ahead on a single into shallow center field. That ultimately gave Vizcaino his second loss to go along with his second blown save.

Though Vizcaino has nominally been in a co-closer situation with A.J. Minter, he has received the bulk of the Braves’ save chances, and he hasn’t been bad. Tuesday’s loss was the first time all season that Vizcaino had allowed more than one run in an appearance, and entering the game, he had a 1.93 ERA, a .167 Avg allowed and 19 strikeouts in 18.2 innings.
Read the rest of this entry »

Anytime news breaks regarding an injury or the need for a change at closer, the speculation ensues. With Toronto’s Roberto Osuna placed on administrative leave by baseball, adding the correct Blue Jay reliever means a chance at procuring saves. Some focused on Seung-Hwan Oh who owns closing experience, but he pitched the sixth inning with his team down by one. Others took a chance on John Axford, he’s been pitching very well of late with seven straight scoreless outings over 9.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Alas, he worked the seventh inning and his ability to work more than one inning could keep him out of the save mix going forward unless he records a “Hader”.

So, it boiled down to Ryan Tepera or Tyler Clippard. Manager John Gibbons opted for the closer experience with Tepera keeping his role in the eighth inning. Tepera garnered the win giving up a walk with a strikeout after Toronto rallied for four runs in the bottom of the frame. Then, Tyler Clippard entered for his first save of the year giving up a hit with two strikeouts. Over his last six appearances, Clippard’s registered three holds, a win and a save allowing four hits, an unearned run and a walk with 10 strikeouts. Although regression will happen with Clippard, it’s his role to lose with Toronto until more clarity emerges with Osuna’s pending suspension.

It’s hard to believe, but Craig Kimbrel’s never recorded a save requiring him to get more than four outs. He tried again to make history last night, but not only blew the save, his outing led to a Red Sox loss. Many will question his entering the game so soon, but with it on the line, Alex Cora made the right move, it just did not work out. Kimbrel entered with runners on first and third with one out giving up a triple to Brett Gardner to turn the tide then Aaron Judge hit a home run to center before Kimbrel retired the last two by strikeouts to end the inning. In spite of the blown save, Kimbrel’s been trending in the right direction of late. Speaking of which, Aroldis Chapman closed the door notching his ninth save giving up a hit and striking out three working on back-to-back days. Same goes for Chad Green, so if a save chance presents itself in the Bronx tonight, plan on David Robertson to get the opportunity.  Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into Monday’s schedule, the Braves were the only team in the majors to not have recorded a save, but Arodys Vizcaino put an end to that shutout. In limiting the Phillies to a Nick Williams single in the top of the ninth inning, Vizcaino protected a 2-1 lead and gave himself his first save of 2018.

Much of Vizcaino’s save drought can be tied to the Braves having played in several lopsided contests early in the season. When he was finally presented with a save opportunity last Wednesday against the Nationals, he let a one-run lead evaporate by giving up a solo home run to Matt Adams. Even if Vizcaino had some save chances earlier on, he may not have fared well. He walked six batters over his first four appearances, which covered 3.2 innings, and he threw a paltry 52.4 percent of his pitches for strikes.
Read the rest of this entry »

Last Saturday, Jim Johnson blew his eighth save of the season, and apparently Brian Snitker had seen enough. He told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Johnson was being dropped as the Braves’ primary closer and, going forward, he would “mix and match” in save situations. On Wednesday night, Snitker had his first opportunity to pick a closer since demoting Johnson, and not surprisingly, he went to Arodys Vizcaino. After all, Vizcaino has been Snitker’s favored eighth-inning option and had successfully served as the Braves’ closer for part of 2016, collecting 10 saves.

Johnson is presumably still a candidate to close on occasion, and Jose Ramirez and Rex Brothers could be part of that mix as well, though the latter reliever has struggled in his recent forays in the late innings. Vizcaino has had no problems getting whiffs, posting a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate entering Wednesday, and while he does not have the best control of the closer candidates, he has been the best at getting chases on pitches outside of the strike zone. He successfully closed out the Dodgers on Wednesday, and he appears poised to take over the job. Among all of the relievers who have recently ascended to the closer’s role, only Brad Hand has a more enviable skill set, and Vizcaino is much more widely available.
Read the rest of this entry »

The Braves’ solid late-innings trio has taken a couple of hits lately. Jim Johnson blew his seventh save of the season Friday night, and it was his fifth blown save since May 23. Over that stretch, Johnson has a 5.59 ERA with a 4.7 BB/9 ratio, after posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.4 BB/9 ratio prior to this stretch. His BABIP has also risen from .245 to .323, though some of that increase could be a function of pitching in less favorable counts.

In a post-game interview, Brian Snitker said he has “no problem” with Johnson, so we can expect him to get the Braves’ next save opportunity. In general, when blown saves pile up, an ouster is almost inevitable. Remember when it seemed that Francisco Rodriguez and Matt Bush were on seemingly infinite leashes? Their respective managers stood by them far longer than many fans and fantasy owners would have preferred, but in both cases, patience and support had their limits. I suspect if Johnson’s next blown save occurs within a week after the All-Star break, Snitker’s patience will reach its end as well.
Read the rest of this entry »